基于模糊综合评判法的震区泥石流危险度评价
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摘要
"5.12"汶川地震导致震区泥石流沟的活动性增强,使得泥石流的危险性发生了变化。泥石流是由多种因素综合作用的结果,是一个复杂的"模糊"系统,选取7个因子作为泥石流危险性评判因子,运用模糊综合评判法,对龙池的8条泥石流沟进行危险度评价。评价结果与实际情况基本相符,表明将模糊综合评判法应用于泥石流危险度评价是科学的和可靠的。
Whenchuan earthquake resulted in the increase of activity of debris-flow gully in earthquake area,and also changed the risk of the debris flow.Debris flow is due to the comprehensive effect of manifold factors,and it is also a complex fuzzy system.Seven factors are selected as evaluation factors to identify the risk of debris flow and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is used to evaluate the risk of eight debris-flow gullies in Longchi.The evaluation results are close to the actual situation basically,which indicates that it is scientific and credible to make use of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to evaluate the risk of debris flow.
引文
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