M_S8.1昆仑山口西地震和M_S8.0汶川地震余震序列的时空分布特征和持续时间的对比
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摘要
2001年MS8.1昆仑山口西地震和2008年MS8.0汶川地震发生在同一构造单元,但其余震序列无论在个数、空间分布,还是持续时间上都表现了显著的差别.余震通常由主震区域内背景场地震活动性受到的扰动所引起,这样的扰动则来自于主震造成的应力场状态的变化.本文从滑移速率和状态相依赖的摩擦定律(Rate-and State-Dependent Friction Law)出发,结合区域主震前后的地震活动性资料,定量地估算了这两个大地震后余震序列可能的持续时间,并对不同模型所得的结果进行了比较和对比.结果表明,汶川地震余震持续时间约为昆仑山口西地震余震持续时间的20倍,这是由于昆仑山口西地震和汶川地震余震序列的个数和持续时间不仅与地震成核过程的状态变化有关,还与作用在断层面上的正应力σN和剪应力加载速率τ.的大小有关.主震前后剪应力速率τ.的差别导致了在相同大小应力扰动ΔCFS之后的余震的活动性变化率的明显不同,导致了所触发的余震的个数和余震序列的持续时间的巨大差别.通过对昆仑山口西地震和汶川地震余震序列的时空分布特征和持续时间的定量化认识,可以为地震灾害定量评估提供合理和有益的物理参数.
The 2001 MS8.1 Kunlunshan earthquake and the 2008 MS8.0 Wenchuan earthquake occurred in the same tectonic unit.There are significant differences in spatial-temporal distribution,number of aftershocks and time duration for the aftershock sequence following these two main shocks.As we all know,aftershocks could be triggered by the regional seismicity change derived from the main shock,which was caused by the Coulomb stress perturbation.Based on the rate-and state-dependent friction law and the seismicity data before and after the mainshocks,we quantitatively estimated the possible aftershock time duration,and compared the results from different approaches.The results indicate that the aftershock time duration after the Wenchuan main shock is about 20 times of that after the Kunlunshan main shock.This can be explained by the relationships between aftershock time duration and earthquake nucleation history,normal stress σN and shear stress loading rate τ · on the fault.In fact,the obvious differences of shear stress loading rate τ · of these two main shocks result in an observable seismicity rate change after the same Coulomb Failure Stress perturbation ΔCFS and the distinction of number and time duration of aftershocks sequence.It is necessary to point out that,from our current study,the quantified understanding and interpretation of spatial-temporal distribution and time duration for the aftershock sequence can be used in the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis(PSHA) in order to avoid overestimating of the seismic hazard levels,and provide reasonable and helpful physical parameters in earthquake disaster mitigation.
The 2001 MS8.1 Kunlunshan earthquake and the 2008 MS8.0 Wenchuan earthquake occurred in the same tectonic unit.There are significant differences in spatial-temporal distribution,number of aftershocks and time duration for the aftershock sequence following these two main shocks.As we all know,aftershocks could be triggered by the regional seismicity change derived from the main shock,which was caused by the Coulomb stress perturbation.Based on the rate-and state-dependent friction law and the seismicity data before and after the mainshocks,we quantitatively estimated the possible aftershock time duration,and compared the results from different approaches.The results indicate that the aftershock time duration after the Wenchuan main shock is about 20 times of that after the Kunlunshan main shock.This can be explained by the relationships between aftershock time duration and earthquake nucleation history,normal stress σN and shear stress loading rate τ · on the fault.In fact,the obvious differences of shear stress loading rate τ · of these two main shocks result in an observable seismicity rate change after the same Coulomb Failure Stress perturbation ΔCFS and the distinction of number and time duration of aftershocks sequence.It is necessary to point out that,from our current study,the quantified understanding and interpretation of spatial-temporal distribution and time duration for the aftershock sequence can be used in the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis(PSHA) in order to avoid overestimating of the seismic hazard levels,and provide reasonable and helpful physical parameters in earthquake disaster mitigation.
引文
[1]Omori F.Preliminary note of the Formosa earthquake ofMarch 17,1906.Bull.Imp.Earthq.Invest.Comm.,1907,1(2):53-69.
[2]Stein S,Liu M.Long aftershock sequences within continentsand implications for earthquake hazard assessment.Nature,2009,462(7269):87-89.
[3]Hill D P,Pollitz F,Newhall C.Earthquake-volcanointeractions.Phys.Today.,2002,55(11):41-47.
[4]Kanamori H,Brodsky E E.The physics of earthquakes.Rep.Prog.Phys.,2004,67(8):1429-1496.
[5]Gomberg J,Bodin P,Reasenberg P A.Observing earthquakestriggered in the near field by dynamic deformations.Bull.Seismol.Soc.Am.,2003,93(1):118-138.
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[7]Bouchon M,Karabulut H.The aftershock signature ofsupershear earthquakes.Science,2008,320(5881):1323-1325.
[8]郑勇,马宏生,吕坚等.汶川地震强余震(MS≥5.6)的震源机制解及其与发震构造的关系.中国科学D辑:地球科学,2009,39(4):413-426.Deng Y,Ma H S,LüJ,et al.The relationship between focalmechanism solutions and seismogenic structure of Wenchuanearthquake aftershocks(Ms≥5.6).Science in China D:Earth Science(in Chinese),2009,39(4):413-426.
[9]Gomberg J,Beeler N M,Blanpied M L,et al.Earthquaketriggering by transient and static deformations.J.Geophys.Res.,1998,103(B10):24411-24426.
[10]Toda S,Lin J,Megghraoui M,et al.12May 2008 M=7.9Wenchuan,China,earthquake calculated to increase failurestress and seismicity rate on three major fault systems.Geophys.Res.Lett.,2008,35:L17305,doi:10.1029/2008GL034903.
[11]Xu X W,Chen W B,Ma W T,et al.Surface rupture of theKunlun earthquake(Ms8.1),Northern Tibetan Plateau,China.Seismol.Res.Lett.,2002,73(6):884-892.
[12]Wesnousky S G.Displacement and geometrical characteristicsof earthquake surface ruptures:Issues and implications forseismic-hazard analysis and the process of earthquake rupture.Bull.Seismol.Soc.Am.,2008,98(4):1609-1632.
[13]Klinger Y,Xu X,Tapponnier P,et al.High-resolutionsatellite imagery mapping of the surface rupture and slipdistribution of the Mw-7.8,14 November 2001 Kokoxiliearthquake,Kunlun fault,Northern Tibet,China.Bull.Seismol.Soc.Am.,2005,95(5):1970-1987.
[14]王卫民,赵连峰,李娟等.四川汶川8.0级地震震源过程.地球物理学报,2008,51(5):1403-1410.Wang W M,Zhao L F,Li J,et al.Rupture process of theM8.0 Wenchuan earthquake of Sichuan,China.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2008,51(5):1403-1410.
[15]陈运泰.汶川特大地震的震级和断层长度.科技导报,2008,26(10):26-27.Chen Y T.On the magnitude and the fault length of the greatWenchuan earthquake.Science&Technology Review(inChinese),2008,26(10):26-27.
[16]Dieterich J H.Modeling of rock friction 1.Experimentalresults and constitutive equations.J.Geophys.Res.,1979,84(B5):2161-2168.
[17]Dieterich J H.Constitutive properties of faults withsimulated gouge.∥Carter N L,Friedman M,Logan J M,et al,eds.Mechanical Behavior of Crustal Rocks.Geophys.Monogr.Ser.,Washington D C:American GeophysicalUnion,1981,24:103-120.
[18]Dieterich J.A constitutive law for rate of earthquakeproduction and its application to earthquake clustering.J.Geophys.Res.,1994,99(B2):2601-2618.
[19]Ruina A.Slip instability and state variable friction laws.J.Geophys.Res.,1983,88(B12):10359-10370.
[20]Dieterich J H.Modeling of rock friction 2.Simulation ofpreseismic slip.J.Geophys.Res.,1979,84(B5):2169-2175.
[21]Rice J R,Gu J C.Earthquake aftereffects and triggeredseismic phenomena.Pure Appl.Geophys.,1983,121(2):187-219.
[22]Weeks J D,Tullis T E.Frictional sliding of dolomite:Avariation in constitutive behavior.J.Geophys.Res.,1985,90(B9):7821-7826.
[23]Blanpied M L,Tullis T E.The stability and behavior of africtional system with a two state variable constitutive law.Pure Appl.Geophys.,1986,124(3):415-444.
[24]Okubo P G,Dieterich J H.State variable fault constitutiverelations for dynamic slip.∥Das S,Boatwright J,Scholz CH,eds.′Earthquake Source Mechanics.Geophys.Monogr.Set.,Washington D C:American Geophysical Union,1986,37:25-35.
[25]Tullis T E,Weeks J D.Constitutive behavior and stability offrictional sliding of granite.Pure Appl.Geophys.,1986,124(3):383-314.
[26]Marone C J,Scholz C H,Bilham R.On the mechanics ofearthquake afterslip.J.Geophys.Res.,1991,96(B5):8441-8452.
[27]Tse S T,Rice J R.Crustal earthquake instability in relationto the depth variation of frictional slip properties.J.Geophys.Res.,1986,91(B9):9452-9472.
[28]Stuart W D.Forecast model for great earthquakes at theNankai Trough subduction zone.Pure Appl.Geophys.,1988,126(2-4):619-641.
[29]Dieterich J H.A model for the nucleation of earthquake slip.∥Das S,Boatwright J,Scholz C,eds.Earthquake SourceMechanics.Geophys.Monogr.Ser.,Washington D C:American Geophysical Union,1986,37:37-47.
[30]Dieterich J H.Earthquake nucleation on faults with rate-andstate-dependent strength.Tectonophysics,1992,211(1-4):115-134.
[31]Console R,Murru M,Catalli F.Physical and stochasticmodels of earthquake clustering.Tectonophysics,2006,417(1-2):141-153.
[32]Utsu T.A method for determining the value of bin a formulalog n=a-bM showing the magnitude-frequency relation forearthquakes.Geophys.Bull.Hokkaido Univ.(inJapanese),1965,13:99-103.
[33]刘博研,史保平.MS8.0汶川地震断层的应力状态以及对余震危险性的影响.地球物理学报,2011,54(4):1002-1009.Liu B Y,Shi B P.The state of stress of the Ms8.0Wenchuan earthquake faulting and its implication to theaftershock hazard.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2011,54(4):1002-1009.
[34]郭啓良,王成虎,马洪生等.汶川MS8.0级大震前后的水压致裂原地应力测量.地球物理学报,2009,52(5):1395-1401.Guo Q L,Wang C H,Ma H S,et al.In-situ hydro-fracturestress measurement before and after the Wenchuan Ms8.0earthquake of China.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2009,52(5):1395-1401.
[35]张培震,徐锡伟,闻学泽等.2008年汶川8.0级地震发震断裂的滑动速率、复发周期和构造成因.地球物理学报,2008,51(4):1066-1073.Zhang P Z,Xu X W,Wen X Z,et al.Slip rates andrecurrence intervals of the Longmen Shan active fault zone,and tectonic implications for the mechanism of the May 12Wenchuan.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2008,51(4):1066-1073.
[36]Li H B,Van der Woerd J,Tapponnier P,et al.Slip rate onthe Kunlun fault at Hongshui Gou,and recurrence time ofgreat events comparable to the 14/11/2001,Mw≥7.9Kokoxili earthquake.Earth Planet.Science Lett.,2005,237(1-2):285-299.
[37]Antolik M,Abercrombie R E,Ekstrm G.The 14November 2001Kokoxili(Kunlunshan),Tibet,earthquake:rupture transfer through a large extensional step-over.Bull.Seismol.Soc.Am.,2004,94(4):1173-1194.
[38]Ziv A.Does aftershock duration scale with main shock size?Geophys.Res.Lett.,2006,33:L17317,doi:10.1029/2006GL027141.
[39]Ji C,Hayes G.Preliminary result of the May 12,2008MW7.9eastern Sichuan,China earthquake.2008http:∥www.geol.ucsb.edu/faculty/ji/big_earthquakes/2008/05/12/ShiChuan.html.[2011-09-28]
[40]Robinson D P,Brough C,Das S.The Mw7.8,2001Kunlunshan earthquake:Extreme rupture speed variabilityand effect of fault geometry.J.Geophys.Res.,2006,111:B08303,doi:10.1029/2005JB004137.
[41]Reasenberg P A,Simpson R W.Response of regionalseismicity to the static stress change produced by the LomaPrieta earthquake.Science,1992,255(5052):1687-1690.
[42]King G C P,Stein R S,Lin J.Static stress changes and thetriggering of earthquakes.Bull.Seismol.Soc.Am.,1994,84(3):935-953.
[43]Hardebeck J L,Nazareth J J,Hauksson E.The static stresschange triggering model:Constraints from two southernCalifornia aftershocks sequences.J.Geophys.Res.,1998,103(B10):24427-24437.
[44]Harris R A.Introduction to special section:Stress triggers,stress shadows,and implications for seismic hazard.J.Geophys.Res.,1998,103(B10):24347-24358.
[45]Nishimura N,Yagi Y.Rupture process for May 12,2008Sichuan,earthquake(preliminary result).2008.http:∥www.geol.tsukuba.ac.jp/-nisimura/20080512/[2011-09-28].
[46]Kagan Y Y.Incremental stress and earthquakes.Geophys.J.Int.,1994,117(2):345-364.
[47]Kilb D,Gomberg J,Bodin P.Aftershock triggering bycomplete Coulomb stress changes.J.Geophys.Res.,2002,107:2060,doi:10.1029/2001JB000202.
[48]Marone C J,Kilgore B.Scaling of the critical slip distance forseismic faulting with shear strain in fault zones.Nature,1993,362(6421):618-621.
[49]Parsons T.A hypothesis for delayed dynamic earthquaketriggering.Geophys.Res.Lett.,2005,32:L04302,doi:10.1029/2004GL021811.
[50]Dieterich J,Cayol V,Okubo P.The use of earthquake ratechanges as a stress meter at Kilanea volcano.Nature,2000,408(6811):457-460.
[51]Toda S,Stein R S,Sagia T.Evidence from the AD 2000Izuislands earthquake swarm that stressing rate governs seismicity.Nature,2002,419(6902):58-61.
[2]Stein S,Liu M.Long aftershock sequences within continentsand implications for earthquake hazard assessment.Nature,2009,462(7269):87-89.
[3]Hill D P,Pollitz F,Newhall C.Earthquake-volcanointeractions.Phys.Today.,2002,55(11):41-47.
[4]Kanamori H,Brodsky E E.The physics of earthquakes.Rep.Prog.Phys.,2004,67(8):1429-1496.
[5]Gomberg J,Bodin P,Reasenberg P A.Observing earthquakestriggered in the near field by dynamic deformations.Bull.Seismol.Soc.Am.,2003,93(1):118-138.
[6]Bouchon M,Vallee M,黄猛等.昆仑山8.1级地震期间长的超剪切破裂的观测.世界地震译丛,2004,(5):51-54.Bouchon M,Vallee M,Huang M,et al.Observation of longsupershear rupture during the magnitude 8.1 Kunlunshanearthquake.Translated World Seismology(in Chinese),2004,(5):51-54.
[7]Bouchon M,Karabulut H.The aftershock signature ofsupershear earthquakes.Science,2008,320(5881):1323-1325.
[8]郑勇,马宏生,吕坚等.汶川地震强余震(MS≥5.6)的震源机制解及其与发震构造的关系.中国科学D辑:地球科学,2009,39(4):413-426.Deng Y,Ma H S,LüJ,et al.The relationship between focalmechanism solutions and seismogenic structure of Wenchuanearthquake aftershocks(Ms≥5.6).Science in China D:Earth Science(in Chinese),2009,39(4):413-426.
[9]Gomberg J,Beeler N M,Blanpied M L,et al.Earthquaketriggering by transient and static deformations.J.Geophys.Res.,1998,103(B10):24411-24426.
[10]Toda S,Lin J,Megghraoui M,et al.12May 2008 M=7.9Wenchuan,China,earthquake calculated to increase failurestress and seismicity rate on three major fault systems.Geophys.Res.Lett.,2008,35:L17305,doi:10.1029/2008GL034903.
[11]Xu X W,Chen W B,Ma W T,et al.Surface rupture of theKunlun earthquake(Ms8.1),Northern Tibetan Plateau,China.Seismol.Res.Lett.,2002,73(6):884-892.
[12]Wesnousky S G.Displacement and geometrical characteristicsof earthquake surface ruptures:Issues and implications forseismic-hazard analysis and the process of earthquake rupture.Bull.Seismol.Soc.Am.,2008,98(4):1609-1632.
[13]Klinger Y,Xu X,Tapponnier P,et al.High-resolutionsatellite imagery mapping of the surface rupture and slipdistribution of the Mw-7.8,14 November 2001 Kokoxiliearthquake,Kunlun fault,Northern Tibet,China.Bull.Seismol.Soc.Am.,2005,95(5):1970-1987.
[14]王卫民,赵连峰,李娟等.四川汶川8.0级地震震源过程.地球物理学报,2008,51(5):1403-1410.Wang W M,Zhao L F,Li J,et al.Rupture process of theM8.0 Wenchuan earthquake of Sichuan,China.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2008,51(5):1403-1410.
[15]陈运泰.汶川特大地震的震级和断层长度.科技导报,2008,26(10):26-27.Chen Y T.On the magnitude and the fault length of the greatWenchuan earthquake.Science&Technology Review(inChinese),2008,26(10):26-27.
[16]Dieterich J H.Modeling of rock friction 1.Experimentalresults and constitutive equations.J.Geophys.Res.,1979,84(B5):2161-2168.
[17]Dieterich J H.Constitutive properties of faults withsimulated gouge.∥Carter N L,Friedman M,Logan J M,et al,eds.Mechanical Behavior of Crustal Rocks.Geophys.Monogr.Ser.,Washington D C:American GeophysicalUnion,1981,24:103-120.
[18]Dieterich J.A constitutive law for rate of earthquakeproduction and its application to earthquake clustering.J.Geophys.Res.,1994,99(B2):2601-2618.
[19]Ruina A.Slip instability and state variable friction laws.J.Geophys.Res.,1983,88(B12):10359-10370.
[20]Dieterich J H.Modeling of rock friction 2.Simulation ofpreseismic slip.J.Geophys.Res.,1979,84(B5):2169-2175.
[21]Rice J R,Gu J C.Earthquake aftereffects and triggeredseismic phenomena.Pure Appl.Geophys.,1983,121(2):187-219.
[22]Weeks J D,Tullis T E.Frictional sliding of dolomite:Avariation in constitutive behavior.J.Geophys.Res.,1985,90(B9):7821-7826.
[23]Blanpied M L,Tullis T E.The stability and behavior of africtional system with a two state variable constitutive law.Pure Appl.Geophys.,1986,124(3):415-444.
[24]Okubo P G,Dieterich J H.State variable fault constitutiverelations for dynamic slip.∥Das S,Boatwright J,Scholz CH,eds.′Earthquake Source Mechanics.Geophys.Monogr.Set.,Washington D C:American Geophysical Union,1986,37:25-35.
[25]Tullis T E,Weeks J D.Constitutive behavior and stability offrictional sliding of granite.Pure Appl.Geophys.,1986,124(3):383-314.
[26]Marone C J,Scholz C H,Bilham R.On the mechanics ofearthquake afterslip.J.Geophys.Res.,1991,96(B5):8441-8452.
[27]Tse S T,Rice J R.Crustal earthquake instability in relationto the depth variation of frictional slip properties.J.Geophys.Res.,1986,91(B9):9452-9472.
[28]Stuart W D.Forecast model for great earthquakes at theNankai Trough subduction zone.Pure Appl.Geophys.,1988,126(2-4):619-641.
[29]Dieterich J H.A model for the nucleation of earthquake slip.∥Das S,Boatwright J,Scholz C,eds.Earthquake SourceMechanics.Geophys.Monogr.Ser.,Washington D C:American Geophysical Union,1986,37:37-47.
[30]Dieterich J H.Earthquake nucleation on faults with rate-andstate-dependent strength.Tectonophysics,1992,211(1-4):115-134.
[31]Console R,Murru M,Catalli F.Physical and stochasticmodels of earthquake clustering.Tectonophysics,2006,417(1-2):141-153.
[32]Utsu T.A method for determining the value of bin a formulalog n=a-bM showing the magnitude-frequency relation forearthquakes.Geophys.Bull.Hokkaido Univ.(inJapanese),1965,13:99-103.
[33]刘博研,史保平.MS8.0汶川地震断层的应力状态以及对余震危险性的影响.地球物理学报,2011,54(4):1002-1009.Liu B Y,Shi B P.The state of stress of the Ms8.0Wenchuan earthquake faulting and its implication to theaftershock hazard.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2011,54(4):1002-1009.
[34]郭啓良,王成虎,马洪生等.汶川MS8.0级大震前后的水压致裂原地应力测量.地球物理学报,2009,52(5):1395-1401.Guo Q L,Wang C H,Ma H S,et al.In-situ hydro-fracturestress measurement before and after the Wenchuan Ms8.0earthquake of China.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2009,52(5):1395-1401.
[35]张培震,徐锡伟,闻学泽等.2008年汶川8.0级地震发震断裂的滑动速率、复发周期和构造成因.地球物理学报,2008,51(4):1066-1073.Zhang P Z,Xu X W,Wen X Z,et al.Slip rates andrecurrence intervals of the Longmen Shan active fault zone,and tectonic implications for the mechanism of the May 12Wenchuan.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2008,51(4):1066-1073.
[36]Li H B,Van der Woerd J,Tapponnier P,et al.Slip rate onthe Kunlun fault at Hongshui Gou,and recurrence time ofgreat events comparable to the 14/11/2001,Mw≥7.9Kokoxili earthquake.Earth Planet.Science Lett.,2005,237(1-2):285-299.
[37]Antolik M,Abercrombie R E,Ekstrm G.The 14November 2001Kokoxili(Kunlunshan),Tibet,earthquake:rupture transfer through a large extensional step-over.Bull.Seismol.Soc.Am.,2004,94(4):1173-1194.
[38]Ziv A.Does aftershock duration scale with main shock size?Geophys.Res.Lett.,2006,33:L17317,doi:10.1029/2006GL027141.
[39]Ji C,Hayes G.Preliminary result of the May 12,2008MW7.9eastern Sichuan,China earthquake.2008http:∥www.geol.ucsb.edu/faculty/ji/big_earthquakes/2008/05/12/ShiChuan.html.[2011-09-28]
[40]Robinson D P,Brough C,Das S.The Mw7.8,2001Kunlunshan earthquake:Extreme rupture speed variabilityand effect of fault geometry.J.Geophys.Res.,2006,111:B08303,doi:10.1029/2005JB004137.
[41]Reasenberg P A,Simpson R W.Response of regionalseismicity to the static stress change produced by the LomaPrieta earthquake.Science,1992,255(5052):1687-1690.
[42]King G C P,Stein R S,Lin J.Static stress changes and thetriggering of earthquakes.Bull.Seismol.Soc.Am.,1994,84(3):935-953.
[43]Hardebeck J L,Nazareth J J,Hauksson E.The static stresschange triggering model:Constraints from two southernCalifornia aftershocks sequences.J.Geophys.Res.,1998,103(B10):24427-24437.
[44]Harris R A.Introduction to special section:Stress triggers,stress shadows,and implications for seismic hazard.J.Geophys.Res.,1998,103(B10):24347-24358.
[45]Nishimura N,Yagi Y.Rupture process for May 12,2008Sichuan,earthquake(preliminary result).2008.http:∥www.geol.tsukuba.ac.jp/-nisimura/20080512/[2011-09-28].
[46]Kagan Y Y.Incremental stress and earthquakes.Geophys.J.Int.,1994,117(2):345-364.
[47]Kilb D,Gomberg J,Bodin P.Aftershock triggering bycomplete Coulomb stress changes.J.Geophys.Res.,2002,107:2060,doi:10.1029/2001JB000202.
[48]Marone C J,Kilgore B.Scaling of the critical slip distance forseismic faulting with shear strain in fault zones.Nature,1993,362(6421):618-621.
[49]Parsons T.A hypothesis for delayed dynamic earthquaketriggering.Geophys.Res.Lett.,2005,32:L04302,doi:10.1029/2004GL021811.
[50]Dieterich J,Cayol V,Okubo P.The use of earthquake ratechanges as a stress meter at Kilanea volcano.Nature,2000,408(6811):457-460.
[51]Toda S,Stein R S,Sagia T.Evidence from the AD 2000Izuislands earthquake swarm that stressing rate governs seismicity.Nature,2002,419(6902):58-61.
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