紫坪铺水库地震监测预测
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摘要
紫坪铺水库微震台网已经运行逾6年,强震台网已经运行逾3年,水库蓄水逾4年。2006年10月水磨突发ML1.4级微小地震群,库区及附近和库坝区地震活跃,依据监测研究较准确预测了2006年11月至2007年2月的水磨ML2.5级地震群。研究认为ML2.5级地震群是蓄水初期诱发的一些浅表卸荷型或岩溶塌陷型小地震。2008年5月12日汶川8级特大天然地震发生在微震台网监测范围内,水库微震台网和强震台阵的运行正常,为政府抗震救灾有效决策提供了科学依据,为稳定社会发挥了作用。
The micro-earthquake monitoring network of the Zipingpu Dam has operated for six years and the strong-earthquake monitoring network has operated for three years as well.The time of dam filling is over four years.During the October 2006 a group of small earthquakes in the range ML=1.4 occurred around the area of the Zipingpu Dam.So it can be considered as the beginning of an earthquake active period.According to this consideration we predicted the happening of Shuimuo ML2.5 earthquake swarms from November 2006 to February 2007.Our study result shows that the ML2.5 earthquake swarm of Shuimuo are caused by the dam filling and by the rock collapsing in karst area or by loading and unloading effects.The epicenter of the 2008 Wenchuan M8.0 Earthquake is located in the center of both the micro-earthquake and the strong-earthquake monitoring network of the Zipingpu Dam.The monitoring networks were operating safely.
The micro-earthquake monitoring network of the Zipingpu Dam has operated for six years and the strong-earthquake monitoring network has operated for three years as well.The time of dam filling is over four years.During the October 2006 a group of small earthquakes in the range ML=1.4 occurred around the area of the Zipingpu Dam.So it can be considered as the beginning of an earthquake active period.According to this consideration we predicted the happening of Shuimuo ML2.5 earthquake swarms from November 2006 to February 2007.Our study result shows that the ML2.5 earthquake swarm of Shuimuo are caused by the dam filling and by the rock collapsing in karst area or by loading and unloading effects.The epicenter of the 2008 Wenchuan M8.0 Earthquake is located in the center of both the micro-earthquake and the strong-earthquake monitoring network of the Zipingpu Dam.The monitoring networks were operating safely.
引文
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[5]水利水电科学研究院抗震防护研究所.四川省岷江紫坪铺水利枢纽工程水库诱发地震危险性评价报告[R].1989,10.
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[11]胡先明,张永久,谢蓉华,韩进,等.紫坪铺水库区小地震震源机制研究[J].地震地质,2009,31(4):676-685.
[12]胡先明,谢蓉华,韩进,等.水库诱发地震中水库水体下方的地震波速比[J].地震研究,2008,31(3):215-221.
[13]胡先明.有关汶川8级地震的2次现场考察[J].四川地震,2009,(4):37-41.
[14]陈厚群,徐泽平,李敏.汶川大地震和大坝抗震安全[J].水利学报,2008,39(10):1158-1167.
[15]李燕辉.“四川岷江紫坪铺水利枢纽工程水库诱发地震监测预测和大坝强震安全监测运用研究技术鉴定会”在蓉召开[J].四川水力发电,2008,27(1):83和126.
[16]水利部国际合作与科技司.四川省岷江紫坪铺水利枢纽与汶川地震的关系[R].2008,6.
[17]胡先明,韩进,谢蓉华,等.建议创建四川水库地震监测预报研究实验场[J].四川地震,2008,(2):30-36.
[2]四川省地震局水库地震研究所,四川省紫坪铺开发有限责任公司.四川岷江紫坪铺水利枢纽工程水库诱发地震监测预测和大坝强震安全监测应用研究[R].2008,2.
[3]胡先明.紫坪铺水库蓄水前天然地震活动[J].四川地震,2007,(2):16-21.
[4]王云基.四川紫坪铺水库区水文地质与工程地质条件研究[J].四川地震,2001,(2):6-13.
[5]水利水电科学研究院抗震防护研究所.四川省岷江紫坪铺水利枢纽工程水库诱发地震危险性评价报告[R].1989,10.
[6]胡先明,谢蓉华.紫坪铺水库地震台网记录地震的复杂性[J].四川地震,2006,(2):17-20.
[7]四川省地震局水库地震研究所.紫坪铺水利枢纽工程水库天然地震活动本底研究报告[R].2005,12.
[8]游显云,彭仕雄,等.紫坪铺工程枢纽区废旧煤洞的分布及对工程建设的影响[J].水电站设计,2007,23(1):80-81.
[9]彭仕雄,杨建,等.紫坪铺坝址左岸邻谷渗漏问题的分析[J].水电站设计,2006,22(2):100-102.
[10]李英,苏茂.阿坝州水库地震危险性分析[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2005,26(增刊):10-15.
[11]胡先明,张永久,谢蓉华,韩进,等.紫坪铺水库区小地震震源机制研究[J].地震地质,2009,31(4):676-685.
[12]胡先明,谢蓉华,韩进,等.水库诱发地震中水库水体下方的地震波速比[J].地震研究,2008,31(3):215-221.
[13]胡先明.有关汶川8级地震的2次现场考察[J].四川地震,2009,(4):37-41.
[14]陈厚群,徐泽平,李敏.汶川大地震和大坝抗震安全[J].水利学报,2008,39(10):1158-1167.
[15]李燕辉.“四川岷江紫坪铺水利枢纽工程水库诱发地震监测预测和大坝强震安全监测运用研究技术鉴定会”在蓉召开[J].四川水力发电,2008,27(1):83和126.
[16]水利部国际合作与科技司.四川省岷江紫坪铺水利枢纽与汶川地震的关系[R].2008,6.
[17]胡先明,韩进,谢蓉华,等.建议创建四川水库地震监测预报研究实验场[J].四川地震,2008,(2):30-36.
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