密云水库周边山区滑坡泥石流易发区预估
摘要
滑坡、泥石流等地质灾害的易发度主要是地质灾害自然属性特征的体现,它与孕灾环境的各项因子密切相关。这些因子包括地形地貌、流域水文、构造等内部条件因子以及地震、降雨等外部触发因子。为突出反映滑坡及泥石流主导因子的作用,本文参考了许多研究所采用的评价方法和因子选择,重点选取对该地区滑坡及泥石流发生区域分析评价起一定主导作用的、便于研究区域数据资料与空间资料匹配、关系密切的几个指标,包括地形地貌要素(坡度、坡向、坡形、相对高差、地貌类型)、环境要素(植被指数、河网密度、洪水淹没范围)、构造要素(距断层的距离、断层密度、地质岩性),通过对这些因子的敏感性进行分析,采用专家打分方法确定每种要素及因子的权重,借助因子加权叠加办法得出研究区地质灾害易发程度空间分布,用于表示其可能发生的统计意义上的可能性(概率),该研究对于区域地质灾害预防具有一定的适用价值。
The occurrence of landslides and debris flows is a type of the natural geological disasters,and is closely related to many factors of hazard-formative environments.These factors include both internal conditional factors such as landform and hydrologic and tectonic conditions,and external conditional factors such as earthquakes and rainfall.To highlight the factors that have dominant role to cause debris flows and landslides,referring to the evaluation methods and factors selection in many investigations,this paper presents the regional analyses and evaluations on the factors which have determinative effects on the occurrence of landslides and debris flows based on regional spatial data.A weighting method is built based on experts' experience for all indicators to estimate the occurrence probability of landslides and debris flows.These indicators include landform factors(slope,aspect and slope-shape,relative height difference,and geomorphologic types),environmental factors(vegetation index,channel density and flood submerged area),and geological structural factors(fault distance and density and geological lithology).Based on the sensitivity analysis of these factors,the risk degrees of geo-logical disasters can be obtained by means of multi-factor superposition,which represent the possibility of geological disaster on the statistical meaning(probability).The study is helpful to regional geological disaster prevention.In comparison with the location of the field-surveyed disaster sites with the forecasted disaster zones,it can be concluded that there is a good accordance between the distribution areas of landslide and debris flows and the estimated disaster zones.The geological hazards such as landslides and debris flows are mainly distributed in the 10 km buffer zone of faults,and most of them occur in the zones with the heights of 500-800 m and the slopes of 5°-25°.
The occurrence of landslides and debris flows is a type of the natural geological disasters,and is closely related to many factors of hazard-formative environments.These factors include both internal conditional factors such as landform and hydrologic and tectonic conditions,and external conditional factors such as earthquakes and rainfall.To highlight the factors that have dominant role to cause debris flows and landslides,referring to the evaluation methods and factors selection in many investigations,this paper presents the regional analyses and evaluations on the factors which have determinative effects on the occurrence of landslides and debris flows based on regional spatial data.A weighting method is built based on experts' experience for all indicators to estimate the occurrence probability of landslides and debris flows.These indicators include landform factors(slope,aspect and slope-shape,relative height difference,and geomorphologic types),environmental factors(vegetation index,channel density and flood submerged area),and geological structural factors(fault distance and density and geological lithology).Based on the sensitivity analysis of these factors,the risk degrees of geo-logical disasters can be obtained by means of multi-factor superposition,which represent the possibility of geological disaster on the statistical meaning(probability).The study is helpful to regional geological disaster prevention.In comparison with the location of the field-surveyed disaster sites with the forecasted disaster zones,it can be concluded that there is a good accordance between the distribution areas of landslide and debris flows and the estimated disaster zones.The geological hazards such as landslides and debris flows are mainly distributed in the 10 km buffer zone of faults,and most of them occur in the zones with the heights of 500-800 m and the slopes of 5°-25°.
引文
[1]徐乾清,戴定忠.中国防洪减灾对策研究.北京:中国水利水电出版社,2002.
[2]樊杰,等.玉树地震灾后重建资源环境承载能力评价.北京:科学出版社,2010.
[3]张红兵.云南省地质灾害预报预警系统.云南地质,2006,25(3):297-302.
[4]靳冰凌,周官辉,郭魁英,等.鹤壁市地质灾害预报预警系统.河南气象,2005(2):23-24.
[5]张书余.基于GIS的地质灾害气象预报流程研究.贵州省科学技术优秀学术论文集.2004:296-300.
[6]陈百炼,杨胜元,杨森林,等.基于GIS的地质灾害气象预警方法初探.中国地质灾害与防治学报,2005,16(4):93-96.
[7]李应真.基于GIS的地质灾害预警预报系统设计.中国科技信息,2010(9):178-179.
[8]李海峰,高德政.基于GIS的地质灾害信息管理系统的设计与开发.四川地质学报,2006,26(3):178-181.
[9]何源睿,王兴宁.内昆铁路基于GIS的地质灾害空间数据库研究.路基工程,2008(5):77-78.
[10]苏强平,汪西林,关文彬.基于GIS下的岷江干旱河谷地区泥石流发生域危险性评价.中国水土保持科学,2004,2(2):98-102.
[11]杨起明,廖化荣,黄显艺.基于GIS的地质灾害信息系统的研究.西部探矿工程,2006(6):283-285.
[12]王小东.基于GIS的地质灾害数据库设计.河南理工大学学报,2007,26(3):250-253.
[13]罗培.基于GIS的地质灾害风险评估信息系统探讨:以重庆市为例.灾害学,2005,20(4):57-61.
[14]程志刚,许光泉.基于GIS的地质灾害评价与预测.淮南职业技术学院学报,2006,6(18):46-48.
[15]黄俊宝.基于GIS的地质灾害危险性模糊数学评判.福建地质,2009,28(4):346-351.
[16]丛威青,潘懋,李铁锋,等.基于GIS的滑坡、泥石流灾害危险性区划关键问题研究.地学前缘,2006,13(1):185-190.
[17]王海芝.北京山区泥石流分布区的地形地貌特征.城市地质,2008,3(4):19-21.
[18]朱阿兴,裴韬,乔建平,等.基于专家知识的滑坡危险性模糊评估方法.地理科学进展,2006,25(4):1-12.
[19]周成虎.地貌学词典].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2006.
[20]汤国安,刘学军,闾国年.数字高程模型及地学分析的原理与方法.北京:科学出版社,2005.
[21]中华人民共和国地貌编辑委员会,中华人民共和国地貌图集(1∶100万).北京:科学出版社,2009.
[22]赵英时.遥感应用分析原理与方法.北京:科学出版社,2003.
[23]黄润秋,李为乐.“5.12”汶川大地震触发地质灾害的发育分布规律研究.岩石力学与工程学报,2008,27(12):2585-2592.
[2]樊杰,等.玉树地震灾后重建资源环境承载能力评价.北京:科学出版社,2010.
[3]张红兵.云南省地质灾害预报预警系统.云南地质,2006,25(3):297-302.
[4]靳冰凌,周官辉,郭魁英,等.鹤壁市地质灾害预报预警系统.河南气象,2005(2):23-24.
[5]张书余.基于GIS的地质灾害气象预报流程研究.贵州省科学技术优秀学术论文集.2004:296-300.
[6]陈百炼,杨胜元,杨森林,等.基于GIS的地质灾害气象预警方法初探.中国地质灾害与防治学报,2005,16(4):93-96.
[7]李应真.基于GIS的地质灾害预警预报系统设计.中国科技信息,2010(9):178-179.
[8]李海峰,高德政.基于GIS的地质灾害信息管理系统的设计与开发.四川地质学报,2006,26(3):178-181.
[9]何源睿,王兴宁.内昆铁路基于GIS的地质灾害空间数据库研究.路基工程,2008(5):77-78.
[10]苏强平,汪西林,关文彬.基于GIS下的岷江干旱河谷地区泥石流发生域危险性评价.中国水土保持科学,2004,2(2):98-102.
[11]杨起明,廖化荣,黄显艺.基于GIS的地质灾害信息系统的研究.西部探矿工程,2006(6):283-285.
[12]王小东.基于GIS的地质灾害数据库设计.河南理工大学学报,2007,26(3):250-253.
[13]罗培.基于GIS的地质灾害风险评估信息系统探讨:以重庆市为例.灾害学,2005,20(4):57-61.
[14]程志刚,许光泉.基于GIS的地质灾害评价与预测.淮南职业技术学院学报,2006,6(18):46-48.
[15]黄俊宝.基于GIS的地质灾害危险性模糊数学评判.福建地质,2009,28(4):346-351.
[16]丛威青,潘懋,李铁锋,等.基于GIS的滑坡、泥石流灾害危险性区划关键问题研究.地学前缘,2006,13(1):185-190.
[17]王海芝.北京山区泥石流分布区的地形地貌特征.城市地质,2008,3(4):19-21.
[18]朱阿兴,裴韬,乔建平,等.基于专家知识的滑坡危险性模糊评估方法.地理科学进展,2006,25(4):1-12.
[19]周成虎.地貌学词典].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2006.
[20]汤国安,刘学军,闾国年.数字高程模型及地学分析的原理与方法.北京:科学出版社,2005.
[21]中华人民共和国地貌编辑委员会,中华人民共和国地貌图集(1∶100万).北京:科学出版社,2009.
[22]赵英时.遥感应用分析原理与方法.北京:科学出版社,2003.
[23]黄润秋,李为乐.“5.12”汶川大地震触发地质灾害的发育分布规律研究.岩石力学与工程学报,2008,27(12):2585-2592.
版权所有：© 2023 中国地质图书馆 中国地质调查局地学文献中心