基于GIS的兰州滑坡与泥石流灾害危险性分析
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摘要
频繁发生的灾害愈来愈对人类社会造成巨大影响,遥感、地理信息系统、全球定位系统和网络技术日益在减灾行动中发挥重要的作用.兰州区域地质岩性、构造断裂、地震活动带、地表侵蚀强烈和地形起伏破碎等因素造成了兰州滑坡与泥石流灾害的发育,夏季暴雨、人类工程活动等诱发下灾害频繁,风险加剧.针对兰州地区滑坡与泥石流等山地灾害对区域社会经济的影响,通过建立区域滑坡与泥石流灾害的空间数据库,在GIS技术辅助下实现了专家经验模型和Logistic模型对滑坡与泥石流灾害危险性的预测,其中滑坡Logistic模型准确性达到85.3%,专家经验模型准确性达到74.2%;泥石流Logistic危险性预模型准确性达到80.5%,专家经验模型准确性达到90.5%.随着研究的深入,综合遥感、地理信息系统、全球定位系统和网络技术的灾害研究与应用将在灾害防治中发挥重要的作用.
Frequent geologic disasters cause huge impact on human society.Remote sensing,geographic information systems,global positioning systems and network technology play increasingly great role in disaster reduction.In Lanzhou,the regional lithology,tectonic faults,seismic activity,surface erosion and undulating terrain have contributed to crushing landslide and debris flow hazards.Summer torrential rains and human engineering activities induce disasters in every summer.Through establishing spatial database of regional landslide and debris flow disasters,using spatial analysis,the expertise model and Logistic model for predicting the probability of landslide and debris flow hazards are achieved in this study.The predicted landslide accuracy of Logistic model and the empirical model reach 85.3% and 74.2%,respectively.The predicted debris flow accuracy of Logistic model and the empirical model reach 80.5% and 90.5%,respectively.
Frequent geologic disasters cause huge impact on human society.Remote sensing,geographic information systems,global positioning systems and network technology play increasingly great role in disaster reduction.In Lanzhou,the regional lithology,tectonic faults,seismic activity,surface erosion and undulating terrain have contributed to crushing landslide and debris flow hazards.Summer torrential rains and human engineering activities induce disasters in every summer.Through establishing spatial database of regional landslide and debris flow disasters,using spatial analysis,the expertise model and Logistic model for predicting the probability of landslide and debris flow hazards are achieved in this study.The predicted landslide accuracy of Logistic model and the empirical model reach 85.3% and 74.2%,respectively.The predicted debris flow accuracy of Logistic model and the empirical model reach 80.5% and 90.5%,respectively.
引文
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[9]Hou Min,Jia Shaohui,Guo Zhaocheng.Using RS,GIS andAHP technologies for landslide hazard assessment:TakingTiantai Landslide in Xuanhan County,Sichuan Province as anexample[J].Modern Geology,2006,20(4):668-672.[侯敏,贾韶辉,郭兆成.基于RS与GIS的层次分析法在滑坡危险性评估中的应用——以四川宣汉天台乡滑坡为例[J].现代地质,2006,20(4):668-672.]
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[12]Lan Hengxing,Wang Lingjuan,Zhou Chenghu.Study onGIS-aided model for analysis of landslide hazard[J].Journalof Engineering Geology,2002,10(4):421-427.[兰恒星,王苓涓,周成虎.地理信息系统支持下的滑坡灾害分析模型研究[J].工程地质学报,2002,10(4):421-427.]
[13]Hu Deyong,Li Jing,Chen Yunhao,et al.GIS-based land-slide spatial prediction methods,a case study in CameronHighland,Malaysia[J].Journal of Remote Sensing,2007,11(6):852-858.[胡德勇,李京,陈云浩,等.GIS支持下滑坡灾害空间预测方法研究[J].遥感学报,2007,11(6):852-858.]
[14]Zhu Axing,Pei Tao,Qiao Jianping.A landslide susceptibilitymapping approach using expert knowledge and fuzzy logic un-der GIS[J].Progress in Geography,2006,25(4):1-12.[朱阿兴,裴韬,乔建平,等.基于专家知识的滑坡危险性模糊评估方法[J].地理科学进展,2006,25(4):1-12.]
[15]Ma Jinhui,Nian Yanyun,Cai Dihua.Factors of regionallandslide risk and correlation between landslide and geologystructure in Lanzhou area[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2006,15(3):14-17.[马金辉,年雁云,蔡迪花.兰州地区滑坡风险因素及其与区域构造的关系[J].自然灾害学报,2006,15(3):14-17.]
[16]Wang Wei.Landslide and debris flow disaster characteristicsof the distribution in Lanzhou[J].Scienfic and Technical In-formation of Gansu,2007,35(6):56.[王伟.兰州地区滑坡泥石流分布及灾害特征[J].甘肃科技纵横,2007,35(6):56.]
[17]Varnes D J.Landslide Hazard Zonation:A Review of Princi-ple And Practice[M].Paris:UNESCO,1984.
[18]Zhao Cheng,Zhang Yongjun,Zhao Yuhong.Application ofthe hierarchical analytical methods to evaluating geologicalhazard tendency in Gansu Province[J].Journal of Glaciologyand Geocryology,2009,31(1):182-187.[赵成,张永军,赵玉红.层次分析法在甘肃省地质灾害易发性评价中的应用[J].冰川冻土,2009,31(1):182-187.]
[19]Li Xueping,Tang Huiming,Chen Shi.Application of GIS-based logistic regression modal on spatial prognosis studyingof landslide[J].Journal of Highway and Transportation Re-search and Development,2005,22(6):152-155.[李雪平,唐辉明,陈实.基于GIS的Logistic回归在区域滑坡空间预测中的应用[J].公路交通科技,2005,22(6):152-155.]
[2]Lin Xiaosong,Xu Jiang.The study of the complexity of land-slide hazard[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2007,14(5):359-363.[林孝松,许江.滑坡灾害复杂性特征研究[J].水土保持研究,2007,14(5):359-363.]
[3]Wang Xiaopeng,Pan Mao,Ren Qunzhi.Hazard assessmentof debris flow based on geomorphic information entropy incatchment[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pe-kinensis,2007,43(2):210-215.[王晓朋,潘懋,任群智.基于流域系统地貌信息熵的泥石流危险性定量评价[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),2007,43(2):210-215.]
[4]Qi Long.Review and prospect of research on disasters fromsnow,glaciers and debris flow[J].Journal of Glaciology andGeocryology,1998,20(3):249-257.[祁龙.冰川、积雪及泥石流灾害研究的回顾与设想[J].冰川冻土,1998,20(3):249-257.]
[5]Liu Xilin,Su Pengcheng.Debris flows and zonation based ondebris flow hazards in the area of the West-line Project of theSouth-to-North water diversion project in China[J].EarthScience Frontiers,2007,14(6):188-196.[刘希林,苏鹏程.南水北调西线工程泥石流灾害及危险区划[J].地学前缘,2007,14(6):188-196.]
[6]Yin Kunlong,Chen Lixia,Zhang Guirong.Regional landslidehazard warning and risk assessment[J].Earth Science Fron-tiers,2007,14(6):85-97.[殷坤龙,陈丽霞,张桂荣.区域滑坡灾害预测预警与风险评价[J].地学前缘,2007,14(6):085-097.]
[7]Zhao Hongtao,Sun Huiguo,Wang Wenrui.Evaluation onLandslide-Debris Flow Activity Magnitude in the Middle-South of Gansu Province based on GIS[J].Journal of DesertResearch,2005,25(6):897-902.[赵洪涛,孙会国,王文瑞,等.基于GIS甘肃中南部滑坡泥石流活动强度评价[J].中国沙漠.2005,25(6):897-902.]
[8]Tang Chuan,ZhangJun,Wan Shiyun.Loss evaluation of ur-ban debris flow hazard using high spatial resolution satelliteimagery[J].Scientia Geographic Sinaca,2006,26(3):358-362.[唐川,张军,万石云,等.基于高分辨率遥感影像的城市泥石流灾害损失评估[J].地理科学,2006,26(3):358-362.]
[9]Hou Min,Jia Shaohui,Guo Zhaocheng.Using RS,GIS andAHP technologies for landslide hazard assessment:TakingTiantai Landslide in Xuanhan County,Sichuan Province as anexample[J].Modern Geology,2006,20(4):668-672.[侯敏,贾韶辉,郭兆成.基于RS与GIS的层次分析法在滑坡危险性评估中的应用——以四川宣汉天台乡滑坡为例[J].现代地质,2006,20(4):668-672.]
[10]Bai Xiaohua,Feng Wenhui.Monitoring debris flow by meansof satellite Image[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2001,23(2):176-179.[白晓华,冯文辉.利用TM卫星数据监测泥石流[J].冰川冻土,2001,23(2):176-179.]
[11]Cong Weiqing,Pan Mao,Li Tiefeng.Key research on land-slide and debris flow hazard zonation based on GIS[J].EarthScience Frontiers,2006,13(1):185-190.[丛威青,潘懋,李铁锋,等.基于GIS的滑坡、泥石流灾害危险性区划关键问题研究[J].地学前缘,2006,13(1):185-190.]
[12]Lan Hengxing,Wang Lingjuan,Zhou Chenghu.Study onGIS-aided model for analysis of landslide hazard[J].Journalof Engineering Geology,2002,10(4):421-427.[兰恒星,王苓涓,周成虎.地理信息系统支持下的滑坡灾害分析模型研究[J].工程地质学报,2002,10(4):421-427.]
[13]Hu Deyong,Li Jing,Chen Yunhao,et al.GIS-based land-slide spatial prediction methods,a case study in CameronHighland,Malaysia[J].Journal of Remote Sensing,2007,11(6):852-858.[胡德勇,李京,陈云浩,等.GIS支持下滑坡灾害空间预测方法研究[J].遥感学报,2007,11(6):852-858.]
[14]Zhu Axing,Pei Tao,Qiao Jianping.A landslide susceptibilitymapping approach using expert knowledge and fuzzy logic un-der GIS[J].Progress in Geography,2006,25(4):1-12.[朱阿兴,裴韬,乔建平,等.基于专家知识的滑坡危险性模糊评估方法[J].地理科学进展,2006,25(4):1-12.]
[15]Ma Jinhui,Nian Yanyun,Cai Dihua.Factors of regionallandslide risk and correlation between landslide and geologystructure in Lanzhou area[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2006,15(3):14-17.[马金辉,年雁云,蔡迪花.兰州地区滑坡风险因素及其与区域构造的关系[J].自然灾害学报,2006,15(3):14-17.]
[16]Wang Wei.Landslide and debris flow disaster characteristicsof the distribution in Lanzhou[J].Scienfic and Technical In-formation of Gansu,2007,35(6):56.[王伟.兰州地区滑坡泥石流分布及灾害特征[J].甘肃科技纵横,2007,35(6):56.]
[17]Varnes D J.Landslide Hazard Zonation:A Review of Princi-ple And Practice[M].Paris:UNESCO,1984.
[18]Zhao Cheng,Zhang Yongjun,Zhao Yuhong.Application ofthe hierarchical analytical methods to evaluating geologicalhazard tendency in Gansu Province[J].Journal of Glaciologyand Geocryology,2009,31(1):182-187.[赵成,张永军,赵玉红.层次分析法在甘肃省地质灾害易发性评价中的应用[J].冰川冻土,2009,31(1):182-187.]
[19]Li Xueping,Tang Huiming,Chen Shi.Application of GIS-based logistic regression modal on spatial prognosis studyingof landslide[J].Journal of Highway and Transportation Re-search and Development,2005,22(6):152-155.[李雪平,唐辉明,陈实.基于GIS的Logistic回归在区域滑坡空间预测中的应用[J].公路交通科技,2005,22(6):152-155.]
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