海啸灾害数值预报技术研究现状
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摘要
海啸数值预报技术在海啸预警、防灾减灾工作及海啸物理机制研究工作中都具有举足轻重的作用,特别是在海啸预警及海啸防灾减灾工作中扮演着重要的角色。根据海啸产生及海啸波传播的特征,分别总结了海啸源产生数值模型、海啸传播和淹没模型的研究现状,重点介绍了当前主流地震海啸数值预报模型数值预报技术的发展、预警系统建设及应用现状。旨在为下一步高精度海啸数值预报模型的研究提供指导、为实时海啸预警系统研发提供理论参考。
Numerical forecasting technology play an essential part in tsunami early warning,disaster prevention and reduction(DPR) and tsunami physical mechanism study.It has fundamental significance for tsunami early warning and DPR.Based on the tsunami generation and tsunami wave propagation characteristics,the tsunami source models,tsunami propagation and inudation models are reviewed in this paper.Some important numerical tsunami models which are now in widespread use among tsunami research community were introduced about their implementation methods and application situations.All of the above was summarized in order to provide theoretical reference and guidance for the further research of numerical model and real-time tsunami early warn-ing system.
Numerical forecasting technology play an essential part in tsunami early warning,disaster prevention and reduction(DPR) and tsunami physical mechanism study.It has fundamental significance for tsunami early warning and DPR.Based on the tsunami generation and tsunami wave propagation characteristics,the tsunami source models,tsunami propagation and inudation models are reviewed in this paper.Some important numerical tsunami models which are now in widespread use among tsunami research community were introduced about their implementation methods and application situations.All of the above was summarized in order to provide theoretical reference and guidance for the further research of numerical model and real-time tsunami early warn-ing system.
引文
[1]于福江,叶琳,王喜年.1994年发生在台湾海峡的一次地震海啸的数值模拟[J].海洋学报,2001,23(6):32-39.
[2]叶琳,于福江,吴玮.我国海啸灾害及预警现状与建议[J].海洋预报,2005,22(S):147-157.
[3]王绍玉.印度洋地震和海啸灾害引发的若干思考[J].国际地震动态,2005,313(1):1-8.
[4]温瑞智,任叶飞.我国地震海啸危险性分析方法研究[J].世界地震工程,2007,23(1):6-11.
[5]潘文亮,王盛安,蔡树群.南海潜在海啸灾害的数值模拟[J].热带海洋学报,2009,28(6):7-14.
[6]Mansinha L,Smylie D E.The displacement fields of inclined faults[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America;1971,61(5):1433-1440.
[7]Okada,Y.,1985,Surface deformation due to shear and tensilefaults in a half-space[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society ofAmerica,75(4),113-1154.
[8]Titov V V,Gonzalez F I.Implementation and testing of the meth-od of Splitting Tsunami(MOST)model[R].NOAA TechnicalMemorandum ERL,1997.
[9]Titov V V,Numerical modeling of long wave run-up[D].Los An-geles:University of Southern California,1997.
[10]Pelayo A M,Wiens D A.Tsunami earthquakes:slow thrust-fault-ing events in the accretionary wedge[J].J Geophys Res,1992,97(15):321-337.
[11]Todorovska M I,Trifunac M D.Generation of tsunamis by aslowly spreading uplift of the sea floor[J].Soil Dynamics andEarthquake Engineering,2001,21:151-167.
[12]赵曦,王本龙,刘桦.海沟内海底地震激发的表面波[J].力学季刊,2007,28(2):195-202.
[13]祝会兵.海啸模型研究进展(I)[J].宁波大学学报(理工版),2006,19(4):536-541.
[14]Synolakis C E,Bardet J P,Borrero J C.The slump origin of the1998 Papua New Guinea tsunami[J].Proc R SocLond,2002,458:763-789.
[15]张超凡,石耀霖.海啸灾害的数值模拟研究[J].中国科学院研究生院学报,2008,25(3):289-296.
[16]Shuto.Numerical simulation of tsunami Its present and near fu-ture[J].Natural Hazards,1991,(4):171-191.
[17]Lynch D R,Gray W G.Finite element simulation of shallow wa-ter problems with moving boundaries[C].InProc.2d Conf.FiniteElements Water Resource,eds,C.A.Brebbia et al,1978.
[18]Lynch D R,Gray W G.Finite element simulation of flow in de-forming regions[J].J of Comp Phys,1980,36:135-153.
[19]Kawahra M,Hirano H,Tsubota K,Inagaki K,Selective lumpingfinite element method for shallow water flow[J].Int.J.for Nu-merical Methods in Fluids,1982,2:89-112.
[20]Kawahra M,Umetsu T.Finite element method for movingboundary problems in river flow[J].Int.J.for Numerical Meth-ods in Fluids,1986,6:365-386.
[21]孙美仙,丁照东,赵联大等.基于GIS的海啸预警信息系统集成框架[J].海洋学研究,2009,27(4):109-116.
[22]Liu P L,Cho Y S,Yoon S B,et al.Numerical simulation of the1960 Chilean tsunami propagation and inundation at Hilo,Ha-waii[C]//Tsuchiya Y,Shuto N.Tsunami Progress in Prediction,di-saster prevention and warning,Amsterdam:Kluwer AcademiPublisher,1995.
[23]Wang X M,Liu P L.An analysis of 2004 Sumatra earthquakefault plane mechanisms and Indian Ocean tsunami[J].Journal ofHydraulic Engineering and Research,2006,44(2):147-154.
[24]LeVeque R J,George D L.High-resolution finite volume meth-ods for the shallow water equations with topography anddry-states[J].Advances in Coastal and Ocean Engineering,2008,(10):43-73.
[25]Wei G,Kirby J T,Grili S T,et al.A fully nonlinear Boussinesqmodel for surface wave[J].Journal of Fluid Mechanics,1995,294:71-92.
[26]于福江,吴玮,赵联大.基于数值预报技术的新一代海啸预警[J].国际地震动态,2005(1):19-22.
[27]Wei Y,Bernarld E N,Tang L,et al.Real-time expaerimental fore-cast of the Peruvian tsunami of August 2007 for U.S.coastlines[J].Geophys Res Lett,2008,35,L04069.
[2]叶琳,于福江,吴玮.我国海啸灾害及预警现状与建议[J].海洋预报,2005,22(S):147-157.
[3]王绍玉.印度洋地震和海啸灾害引发的若干思考[J].国际地震动态,2005,313(1):1-8.
[4]温瑞智,任叶飞.我国地震海啸危险性分析方法研究[J].世界地震工程,2007,23(1):6-11.
[5]潘文亮,王盛安,蔡树群.南海潜在海啸灾害的数值模拟[J].热带海洋学报,2009,28(6):7-14.
[6]Mansinha L,Smylie D E.The displacement fields of inclined faults[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America;1971,61(5):1433-1440.
[7]Okada,Y.,1985,Surface deformation due to shear and tensilefaults in a half-space[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society ofAmerica,75(4),113-1154.
[8]Titov V V,Gonzalez F I.Implementation and testing of the meth-od of Splitting Tsunami(MOST)model[R].NOAA TechnicalMemorandum ERL,1997.
[9]Titov V V,Numerical modeling of long wave run-up[D].Los An-geles:University of Southern California,1997.
[10]Pelayo A M,Wiens D A.Tsunami earthquakes:slow thrust-fault-ing events in the accretionary wedge[J].J Geophys Res,1992,97(15):321-337.
[11]Todorovska M I,Trifunac M D.Generation of tsunamis by aslowly spreading uplift of the sea floor[J].Soil Dynamics andEarthquake Engineering,2001,21:151-167.
[12]赵曦,王本龙,刘桦.海沟内海底地震激发的表面波[J].力学季刊,2007,28(2):195-202.
[13]祝会兵.海啸模型研究进展(I)[J].宁波大学学报(理工版),2006,19(4):536-541.
[14]Synolakis C E,Bardet J P,Borrero J C.The slump origin of the1998 Papua New Guinea tsunami[J].Proc R SocLond,2002,458:763-789.
[15]张超凡,石耀霖.海啸灾害的数值模拟研究[J].中国科学院研究生院学报,2008,25(3):289-296.
[16]Shuto.Numerical simulation of tsunami Its present and near fu-ture[J].Natural Hazards,1991,(4):171-191.
[17]Lynch D R,Gray W G.Finite element simulation of shallow wa-ter problems with moving boundaries[C].InProc.2d Conf.FiniteElements Water Resource,eds,C.A.Brebbia et al,1978.
[18]Lynch D R,Gray W G.Finite element simulation of flow in de-forming regions[J].J of Comp Phys,1980,36:135-153.
[19]Kawahra M,Hirano H,Tsubota K,Inagaki K,Selective lumpingfinite element method for shallow water flow[J].Int.J.for Nu-merical Methods in Fluids,1982,2:89-112.
[20]Kawahra M,Umetsu T.Finite element method for movingboundary problems in river flow[J].Int.J.for Numerical Meth-ods in Fluids,1986,6:365-386.
[21]孙美仙,丁照东,赵联大等.基于GIS的海啸预警信息系统集成框架[J].海洋学研究,2009,27(4):109-116.
[22]Liu P L,Cho Y S,Yoon S B,et al.Numerical simulation of the1960 Chilean tsunami propagation and inundation at Hilo,Ha-waii[C]//Tsuchiya Y,Shuto N.Tsunami Progress in Prediction,di-saster prevention and warning,Amsterdam:Kluwer AcademiPublisher,1995.
[23]Wang X M,Liu P L.An analysis of 2004 Sumatra earthquakefault plane mechanisms and Indian Ocean tsunami[J].Journal ofHydraulic Engineering and Research,2006,44(2):147-154.
[24]LeVeque R J,George D L.High-resolution finite volume meth-ods for the shallow water equations with topography anddry-states[J].Advances in Coastal and Ocean Engineering,2008,(10):43-73.
[25]Wei G,Kirby J T,Grili S T,et al.A fully nonlinear Boussinesqmodel for surface wave[J].Journal of Fluid Mechanics,1995,294:71-92.
[26]于福江,吴玮,赵联大.基于数值预报技术的新一代海啸预警[J].国际地震动态,2005(1):19-22.
[27]Wei Y,Bernarld E N,Tang L,et al.Real-time expaerimental fore-cast of the Peruvian tsunami of August 2007 for U.S.coastlines[J].Geophys Res Lett,2008,35,L04069.
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