东北深震的孕震三步曲
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摘要
中国东北地区存在一条震源深度达600公里深震带,频发深源地震,本文通过分析1973年9月27日东北7.7级深震发震前0.5～1年的月际变温场和降水距平场的变化特征,得出中国东北区域深震的孕震过程与我国浅震一样也存在孕震三步曲;近30年9次深震的统计分析表明:东北深震的整个孕震时间以及各步之间的孕震时间均与我国浅震的孕震时间基本相同,唯地壳被压缩的时间东北深震比我国浅震要短一倍左右.东北深震孕震第一步中"热旱区"外围相对多雨带的平均半径与未来震级之间的相关系数达到0.96,用环带半径可估计出未来的震级,根据深震孕震三步曲的各步时间可估算出发震时间.东北深震与相匹浅震组成的"拍地热涡"亦可引发强大多雨区.表明深震肇因与浅震一样均来自壳幔层以下,其差别仅在于岩石圈的脆性层深度不同.
A deep focus earthquake zone as deep as 600 kilometers exists in Northeast China and deep earthquakes happen frequently here.By analyzing feature of monthly temperature variation fields and precipitation anomaly percentage about 0.5～1 a before the deep earthquake measuring 7.7 magnitude on the Richter scale happened in Northeast China on 27th September,1973,a conclusion is made that "the three stages for earthquake gestation" which exists in the procedure of deep earthquakes in Northeast China,is similar to shallow earthquakes of China. And according to statistical data and analytic results of deep earthquakes,it's made clear that the whole time of deep earthquakes in Northeast China and the time between each step are basically the same to shallow earthquakes of our country,except the time of crust compressed is one time shorter than shallow earthquakes.Besides,a rain-belt around a "hot drought region" which exist in the first step.The average radius of this rain-belt has a strong link with the coming deep earthquakes' magnitude.And the related coefficient is up to 9.6.Therefore,magnitude should be estimated,and happening time of the earthquake also can be estimated according to the time of each step in earthquake gestation.The "beat geothermal vortex " which is made up of deep earthquakes in Northeast and its match shallow seism also can generate a heavy rainfall area,It shows that like shallow earthquakes,causes of deep earthquakes come from the under crust mantle layer.The only difference is the depth of the lithosphere' s friable layer.
A deep focus earthquake zone as deep as 600 kilometers exists in Northeast China and deep earthquakes happen frequently here.By analyzing feature of monthly temperature variation fields and precipitation anomaly percentage about 0.5～1 a before the deep earthquake measuring 7.7 magnitude on the Richter scale happened in Northeast China on 27th September,1973,a conclusion is made that "the three stages for earthquake gestation" which exists in the procedure of deep earthquakes in Northeast China,is similar to shallow earthquakes of China. And according to statistical data and analytic results of deep earthquakes,it's made clear that the whole time of deep earthquakes in Northeast China and the time between each step are basically the same to shallow earthquakes of our country,except the time of crust compressed is one time shorter than shallow earthquakes.Besides,a rain-belt around a "hot drought region" which exist in the first step.The average radius of this rain-belt has a strong link with the coming deep earthquakes' magnitude.And the related coefficient is up to 9.6.Therefore,magnitude should be estimated,and happening time of the earthquake also can be estimated according to the time of each step in earthquake gestation.The "beat geothermal vortex " which is made up of deep earthquakes in Northeast and its match shallow seism also can generate a heavy rainfall area,It shows that like shallow earthquakes,causes of deep earthquakes come from the under crust mantle layer.The only difference is the depth of the lithosphere' s friable layer.
引文
[1]孙文斌,和跃时.东北地区地震活动特征及其与日本海板块俯冲的关系[J].地震地质,2004,26(1):1-11. Sun W B,He Y S.The teature of seismicity in Northeast China and its relation to the subduction of the Japan Sea Plate [J].Seismology and Geology,2004,26(1):1-11.
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[4]方炜,吴富春,张春生,刘春,邵辉成.中国及其周邻地区中深源地震的活动特征分析[J],地震研究,2003,26(4):308-314. Fang W,Wu F C,Zhang C S,Liu C,Shao H C. Characteristics analysis of moderate-deep focal earthquake occurred in China and neighbouring region[J].Journal ot Seismological Research,2003,26(4):308-314.
[5]陈学忠.对地震预测有关问题的看法[J].国际地震动态,2010 (02):8-11. Chen X ZH.Some viewpoints about earthquake prediction[J]. Recent Developments in World Seismology,2010(02):8- 11.
[6]朱桂芝,石耀霖.板片深部俯冲动力学研究的新进展[J].地球物理学进展,2008,23(02):333-342. Zhu G ZH,Shi Y L.New progress on geodynamics of slab deep subduction[J].Progress in Geophysics(in Chinese),2008,23, (02):333-342.
[7]秦保燕.地震成因的综合模型和强震预报[J].西北地震学报, 1994(04):93+84-92. Qin B Y.Comprehensive model of earthquake forming mechanism and strong earthquake prediction[J]. Northwestern Seismological Journal,1994(04):93+84-92.
[8]张瑞青,李永华,姚雪绒.西北太平洋俯冲带东北地区壳幔结构研究进展[J].地球物理学进展,2006,21(4):1080-1085. Zhang R Q,Li Y H,Yao X R.A review of latest crustal and upper mantle discontinuities studies beneath northeast China in northwest Pacific subduction zone[J].Progress in Geophysics (in Chinese),2006,21(4):1080-1085.
[9]张克亮,魏东平.环太平洋俯冲带内双地震带及其成因机制研究进展[J].地球物理学进展,2008,23(01):31-39. Zhang K L,Wei D P.Progresses of the researches and the causing mechanisms on the double seimic zones within the subduction zones around the Pacific Ocean.Progress in Geophysics(in Chinese),2008,23(01):31-39.
[10]孙文福,焦明若等.2008年前东北地震大形势研究[J].华南地震,2005,25(03):25-34. Sun W F,Jiao M R,et al.A study on the great situation of earthquake in Northeast China till the year of 2008[J].South China Journal of Seismology,2005,25(03):25-34.
[11]张淑珍,秦满忠,虞国平等.对东北深震震相特征和地震参数的对比分析[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2007,28(06):46-48. Zhang S ZH,Qin M ZH,Yu G P.Comparative analysis of phase characteristics and seismic factors of the deep earthquake on Northeast China[J].Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research,2007,28(06):46-48.
[12]聂高众,汤懋苍.多灾种相关性研究进展与灾害综合机理的认识.第四纪研究[J].1999(05):466-475. Nie G ZH,Tang M C.Progresses in the research on multi-hazard correlation and the understanding of comprehensive hazard-formation mechanism[J].Quaternary Sciences,1999 (05):466-475.
[13]郭维栋,汤懋苍.我国地形变场的统计特征及与地温场的相关[J].高原气象,1999,18(01):80-88. Guo W D,Tang M C.Statistic characteristics of the earth surface deformation field and its correlation with the ground temperature field[J].Plateau Meteorology,1999,18(01):80 -88.
[14]郭维栋,汤懋苍.地形变场与现代地壳垂直运动及地震活动关系初探(Ⅰ)——地形变场的计算方法和物理意义[J].西北地震学报,2002,24(01):21-26. Guo W D,Tang M C.Study on the earth deformation field and its relation with crustal vertical movement and earthquake crustal vertical movement and earthquake(Ⅰ)-Numerical expression and physical meaning of deformation field[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2002,24(01): 21-26.
[15]郭维栋,汤懋苍.地形变场与现代地壳垂直运动及地震活动关系初探(Ⅱ)——地凸凹区与地壳运动及地震活动的关系[J].西北地震学报,2003,25(02):18-24. Guo W D,Tang M C.Study on the earth deformation field and its relation with crustal vertical movement and earthquake (Ⅱ) -Convex/concave regions and their relation with crustal movement and earthquake[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2003,25(02):18-24.
[16]范新岗,汤懋苍.大地震前后地温、降水及浅层热流通量场的结构特征[J].地球物理学报,1994,37(S2):192-203. Fan X G,Tang M C.A preliminary study on structural feature of soil temperature and precipitation and soil heat flux fields of strong earthquakes[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),1994,37(S2):192-203.
[17]郭维栋,柳艳香.1998年夏季地震、地温场演变与洪涝过程分析[J].地球物理学报,2004,47(03):411-416. Guo W D,Liu Y X,et al.Earthquakes and soil temperature evolution over china in summer 1998 and their relation to the severe flood events[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese), 2004,47(03):411-416.
[18]汤懋苍,高晓清.1980—1993年我国“地热涡”的若干统计特征Ⅰ“地热涡”的时空分布[J].中国科学(B辑),1995,25 (11):1186-1192. Tang M C,Gao X Q.Some statistic characteristics of“Underground Hot Vortex”in China during 1980 - 1993 (Ⅰ)—Spatial temporal distribution of Underground Hot Vortex[J].Science in China(SeriesB),1995,25(11 ):1186- 1192.
[19]汤懋苍,高晓清.1980—1993年我国“地热涡”的若干统计特征Ⅱ“地热涡”与地震的统计相关[J].中国科学(B辑), 1995,25(12):1313-1319. Tang M C,Gao X Q.Some statistic characteristics of“Underground Hot Vortex”in China during 1980 - 1993 (Ⅱ)—Statistic correlation between“Underground Hot Vortex”and earthquake[J].Science in China(Series B), 1995,25(12);1313- 1319.
[20]赵红岩,张拥军等.冬季亚洲中强震与夏季我国东部主雨带的准同纬性[J].地球物理学报,2006,49,(03):706-711. Zhao H Y,Zhang Y J,et al.The quasi-latitude character of the earthquakes in winter in Asia and the rainy belts in summer in East China[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese), 2006,49(03):706-711.
[21]赵红岩,汤懋苍,张拥军等.“旱一震一涝”关系及其在短期气候预测中的可能应用[J].自然科学进展,2007,17(1):132- 137. Zhao H Y,Tang M C,Zhang Y J,et al.The connection of“Drought Earthquake-Flood”and its possible use in short term climate prediction[J].Advance in Natural Sciences, 2007,17(1):132- 137.
[22]汤懋苍,梅秀苹.郭维栋.我国105°E以东地区≥5.7级地震的孕震3步曲.地球物理学进展,2011,26(4):1141-1146, DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1004-2903.2011.04.002. Tang M C,Mei X P,Guo W D.Three stages of Ms≥5. 7earthquake gestation in 105°E east of China.Progress in Geophysics(in Chinese),22011,26(4):1141 - 1146,DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-2903.2011.04.002.
[23]王宝灵,汤懋苍.我国土壤热流计算结果的初步分析[J].科学通报,1993,38(11):1013-1016. Wang B L,Tang M C.A preliminary analysis of soil heat flow in China[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,1993,38(11 ): 1013-1016.
[24]汤懋苍,董文杰.地气耦合研究进展简介[J].地球物理学进展,1993,07(1):60-67. Tang M C,Dong W J.A Brief Introduction to advances in Earth Atmosphere coupling[J].Progress in Geophysics(in Chinese),1993,07(1):60-67.
[25]汤懋苍,惠小英,郭维栋等.强震前的“干热异常”与地温、降水波及应变弱停[J].西北地震学报,2010,32(1):99-104. Tang M C,Hui X Y,GuoWD,et al.The abnormal high soil temperature、less precipitation and weakening of stress wave hefore strong earthquake[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2010,32(1):99-104.
[26]汤懋苍,成青燕,张东方,郭俊琴,郭维栋.地气图预测全国月降水的实践总结[J].高原气象,2008,27(5):1054-1059. Tang M C,Cheng Q Y,Zhang D F,Guo J Q.Summary of applying soil temperature to forecast monthly precipitation [J].Plateau Meteorology,2008,27(5 ):1054 - 1059.
[2]秦静欣,郝天珧,徐亚等.关于中国海陆莫霍面深度图编绘的思考[J].地球物理学进展,2009,24(5):1593-1601. Qin J X,Hao T Y,Xu Y.The consideration of the Moho depth of China and adjacent areas[J].Progress in Geophysics (in Chinese),2009,24(5):1593-1601.
[3]张立敏,唐晓明.西太平洋板块俯冲运动与中国东北深震带[J].地球物理学报,1983,26(04):331-340. ZHANG LI-MIN,TANG XIAO-MING.THE UNDERTHRUSTING MOVEMENT OF THE WESTERN PACIFIC PLATE AND THE DEEP FOCUS EARTHQUAKE ZONE OF NORTHEAST CHINA.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),1983,26(04):331-340.
[4]方炜,吴富春,张春生,刘春,邵辉成.中国及其周邻地区中深源地震的活动特征分析[J],地震研究,2003,26(4):308-314. Fang W,Wu F C,Zhang C S,Liu C,Shao H C. Characteristics analysis of moderate-deep focal earthquake occurred in China and neighbouring region[J].Journal ot Seismological Research,2003,26(4):308-314.
[5]陈学忠.对地震预测有关问题的看法[J].国际地震动态,2010 (02):8-11. Chen X ZH.Some viewpoints about earthquake prediction[J]. Recent Developments in World Seismology,2010(02):8- 11.
[6]朱桂芝,石耀霖.板片深部俯冲动力学研究的新进展[J].地球物理学进展,2008,23(02):333-342. Zhu G ZH,Shi Y L.New progress on geodynamics of slab deep subduction[J].Progress in Geophysics(in Chinese),2008,23, (02):333-342.
[7]秦保燕.地震成因的综合模型和强震预报[J].西北地震学报, 1994(04):93+84-92. Qin B Y.Comprehensive model of earthquake forming mechanism and strong earthquake prediction[J]. Northwestern Seismological Journal,1994(04):93+84-92.
[8]张瑞青,李永华,姚雪绒.西北太平洋俯冲带东北地区壳幔结构研究进展[J].地球物理学进展,2006,21(4):1080-1085. Zhang R Q,Li Y H,Yao X R.A review of latest crustal and upper mantle discontinuities studies beneath northeast China in northwest Pacific subduction zone[J].Progress in Geophysics (in Chinese),2006,21(4):1080-1085.
[9]张克亮,魏东平.环太平洋俯冲带内双地震带及其成因机制研究进展[J].地球物理学进展,2008,23(01):31-39. Zhang K L,Wei D P.Progresses of the researches and the causing mechanisms on the double seimic zones within the subduction zones around the Pacific Ocean.Progress in Geophysics(in Chinese),2008,23(01):31-39.
[10]孙文福,焦明若等.2008年前东北地震大形势研究[J].华南地震,2005,25(03):25-34. Sun W F,Jiao M R,et al.A study on the great situation of earthquake in Northeast China till the year of 2008[J].South China Journal of Seismology,2005,25(03):25-34.
[11]张淑珍,秦满忠,虞国平等.对东北深震震相特征和地震参数的对比分析[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2007,28(06):46-48. Zhang S ZH,Qin M ZH,Yu G P.Comparative analysis of phase characteristics and seismic factors of the deep earthquake on Northeast China[J].Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research,2007,28(06):46-48.
[12]聂高众,汤懋苍.多灾种相关性研究进展与灾害综合机理的认识.第四纪研究[J].1999(05):466-475. Nie G ZH,Tang M C.Progresses in the research on multi-hazard correlation and the understanding of comprehensive hazard-formation mechanism[J].Quaternary Sciences,1999 (05):466-475.
[13]郭维栋,汤懋苍.我国地形变场的统计特征及与地温场的相关[J].高原气象,1999,18(01):80-88. Guo W D,Tang M C.Statistic characteristics of the earth surface deformation field and its correlation with the ground temperature field[J].Plateau Meteorology,1999,18(01):80 -88.
[14]郭维栋,汤懋苍.地形变场与现代地壳垂直运动及地震活动关系初探(Ⅰ)——地形变场的计算方法和物理意义[J].西北地震学报,2002,24(01):21-26. Guo W D,Tang M C.Study on the earth deformation field and its relation with crustal vertical movement and earthquake crustal vertical movement and earthquake(Ⅰ)-Numerical expression and physical meaning of deformation field[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2002,24(01): 21-26.
[15]郭维栋,汤懋苍.地形变场与现代地壳垂直运动及地震活动关系初探(Ⅱ)——地凸凹区与地壳运动及地震活动的关系[J].西北地震学报,2003,25(02):18-24. Guo W D,Tang M C.Study on the earth deformation field and its relation with crustal vertical movement and earthquake (Ⅱ) -Convex/concave regions and their relation with crustal movement and earthquake[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2003,25(02):18-24.
[16]范新岗,汤懋苍.大地震前后地温、降水及浅层热流通量场的结构特征[J].地球物理学报,1994,37(S2):192-203. Fan X G,Tang M C.A preliminary study on structural feature of soil temperature and precipitation and soil heat flux fields of strong earthquakes[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),1994,37(S2):192-203.
[17]郭维栋,柳艳香.1998年夏季地震、地温场演变与洪涝过程分析[J].地球物理学报,2004,47(03):411-416. Guo W D,Liu Y X,et al.Earthquakes and soil temperature evolution over china in summer 1998 and their relation to the severe flood events[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese), 2004,47(03):411-416.
[18]汤懋苍,高晓清.1980—1993年我国“地热涡”的若干统计特征Ⅰ“地热涡”的时空分布[J].中国科学(B辑),1995,25 (11):1186-1192. Tang M C,Gao X Q.Some statistic characteristics of“Underground Hot Vortex”in China during 1980 - 1993 (Ⅰ)—Spatial temporal distribution of Underground Hot Vortex[J].Science in China(SeriesB),1995,25(11 ):1186- 1192.
[19]汤懋苍,高晓清.1980—1993年我国“地热涡”的若干统计特征Ⅱ“地热涡”与地震的统计相关[J].中国科学(B辑), 1995,25(12):1313-1319. Tang M C,Gao X Q.Some statistic characteristics of“Underground Hot Vortex”in China during 1980 - 1993 (Ⅱ)—Statistic correlation between“Underground Hot Vortex”and earthquake[J].Science in China(Series B), 1995,25(12);1313- 1319.
[20]赵红岩,张拥军等.冬季亚洲中强震与夏季我国东部主雨带的准同纬性[J].地球物理学报,2006,49,(03):706-711. Zhao H Y,Zhang Y J,et al.The quasi-latitude character of the earthquakes in winter in Asia and the rainy belts in summer in East China[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese), 2006,49(03):706-711.
[21]赵红岩,汤懋苍,张拥军等.“旱一震一涝”关系及其在短期气候预测中的可能应用[J].自然科学进展,2007,17(1):132- 137. Zhao H Y,Tang M C,Zhang Y J,et al.The connection of“Drought Earthquake-Flood”and its possible use in short term climate prediction[J].Advance in Natural Sciences, 2007,17(1):132- 137.
[22]汤懋苍,梅秀苹.郭维栋.我国105°E以东地区≥5.7级地震的孕震3步曲.地球物理学进展,2011,26(4):1141-1146, DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1004-2903.2011.04.002. Tang M C,Mei X P,Guo W D.Three stages of Ms≥5. 7earthquake gestation in 105°E east of China.Progress in Geophysics(in Chinese),22011,26(4):1141 - 1146,DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-2903.2011.04.002.
[23]王宝灵,汤懋苍.我国土壤热流计算结果的初步分析[J].科学通报,1993,38(11):1013-1016. Wang B L,Tang M C.A preliminary analysis of soil heat flow in China[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,1993,38(11 ): 1013-1016.
[24]汤懋苍,董文杰.地气耦合研究进展简介[J].地球物理学进展,1993,07(1):60-67. Tang M C,Dong W J.A Brief Introduction to advances in Earth Atmosphere coupling[J].Progress in Geophysics(in Chinese),1993,07(1):60-67.
[25]汤懋苍,惠小英,郭维栋等.强震前的“干热异常”与地温、降水波及应变弱停[J].西北地震学报,2010,32(1):99-104. Tang M C,Hui X Y,GuoWD,et al.The abnormal high soil temperature、less precipitation and weakening of stress wave hefore strong earthquake[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2010,32(1):99-104.
[26]汤懋苍,成青燕,张东方,郭俊琴,郭维栋.地气图预测全国月降水的实践总结[J].高原气象,2008,27(5):1054-1059. Tang M C,Cheng Q Y,Zhang D F,Guo J Q.Summary of applying soil temperature to forecast monthly precipitation [J].Plateau Meteorology,2008,27(5 ):1054 - 1059.
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