滇西地区前兆震群参数的主成分分析
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摘要
对1970年以来滇西地区中小地震资料进行了分析,给出了滇西地区震群及前兆震群的定义;应用主成分分析方法构建了前兆震群判别方程,对震群活动的异常特征进行了分析。结果表明,滇西地区前兆震群具有集中分布的区域特征,主要分布在洱源、剑川、宁蒗、龙陵、腾冲、梁河一带。滇西地区前兆震群综合预报方案以P≥0.42为阈值,前兆震群出现后,2年内发生M≥5地震的对应率达到88%。
Through analyzing and processing the data of the small earthquakes in West Yunnan since 1970, the definitions of the earthquake swarm and the precursor swarm in the area have been given. The anomalous characteristic of the swarm activity is analyzed using the precursor swarm distinguishing equation constructed by the principal component analysis method. The results show that the precursor swarms in West Yunnan have the regional feature of concentrating distribution, mainly along the areas of Eryuan, Jianchuan, Ninglang, Longling, Tengchong and Lianghe. The comprehensive prediction project of the precursor swarms in West Yunnan takes the P≥0.42 as threshold value, by which the corresponding ratio of M≥5 earthquakes reaches 88% around the distinguished precursor swarms in the following two years.
Through analyzing and processing the data of the small earthquakes in West Yunnan since 1970, the definitions of the earthquake swarm and the precursor swarm in the area have been given. The anomalous characteristic of the swarm activity is analyzed using the precursor swarm distinguishing equation constructed by the principal component analysis method. The results show that the precursor swarms in West Yunnan have the regional feature of concentrating distribution, mainly along the areas of Eryuan, Jianchuan, Ninglang, Longling, Tengchong and Lianghe. The comprehensive prediction project of the precursor swarms in West Yunnan takes the P≥0.42 as threshold value, by which the corresponding ratio of M≥5 earthquakes reaches 88% around the distinguished precursor swarms in the following two years.
引文
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韩天锡,蒋淳,魏雪丽,等.2004.多元统计组合模型在地震综合预报中的应用[J].地震学报,26(5):523-528.
阚荣举,韩源.1992.云南遮放至马龙地学断面[M].北京:地震出版社,7-19.
林邦慧,李大鹏.1994.前震和前震序列研究[J].地震学报,16(增刊):24-38.
陆远忠,李胜乐.2002.基于GIS的地震分析预报系统[M].成都:成都地图出版社,117-119.
宋俊高,陆远忠,施玉秀,等.1991.震群用于地震预报的实用程式研究[A].见:国家地震局科技监测司.地震预报方法实用化研究子集——地震学专辑[C].289-294.
唐启义,冯光明.2002.实用统计分析及其DPS数据处理系统[M].北京:科学技术出版社,262-267.
王炜,林命中,马钦忠,等.2005.主成分分析法在地震预测中的应用研究[J].中国地震,21(3):409-416.
Evison F F.1999.The precursory earthquake swarm and the inferredprecursory quarm,NewZealand[J].Journal of Geology and Geo-physics.42:229-236.
Kanomori H.1972.Relation between tectonic stress,great earthquakesand earthquake swarms[J].Tectnophysics,14:1-12.
韩天锡,蒋淳,魏雪丽,等.2004.多元统计组合模型在地震综合预报中的应用[J].地震学报,26(5):523-528.
阚荣举,韩源.1992.云南遮放至马龙地学断面[M].北京:地震出版社,7-19.
林邦慧,李大鹏.1994.前震和前震序列研究[J].地震学报,16(增刊):24-38.
陆远忠,李胜乐.2002.基于GIS的地震分析预报系统[M].成都:成都地图出版社,117-119.
宋俊高,陆远忠,施玉秀,等.1991.震群用于地震预报的实用程式研究[A].见:国家地震局科技监测司.地震预报方法实用化研究子集——地震学专辑[C].289-294.
唐启义,冯光明.2002.实用统计分析及其DPS数据处理系统[M].北京:科学技术出版社,262-267.
王炜,林命中,马钦忠,等.2005.主成分分析法在地震预测中的应用研究[J].中国地震,21(3):409-416.
Evison F F.1999.The precursory earthquake swarm and the inferredprecursory quarm,NewZealand[J].Journal of Geology and Geo-physics.42:229-236.
Kanomori H.1972.Relation between tectonic stress,great earthquakesand earthquake swarms[J].Tectnophysics,14:1-12.
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