基于历史地震史料记载的地震危险性分析方法
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摘要
现行的地震危险性分析方法是经过潜在震源区划分、地震活动性参数和衰减关系的确定,以及基岩地震动参数的计算而作为基础资料的历史强震目录,同时也是通过历史地震记载的分析得到的。然而,在其每一个环节都存在不确定性,而现有的不确定校正很难达到满意的程度。本文设想仅仅利用历史地震的史料记载,依据最大似然法,计算场地的各不同年份不同超越概率的地震危险性。以怀来、河间、唐山、承德、宁晋、石家庄为例,并仅仅以这些场地的历史记载为依据,不考虑推测的影响烈度,计算这些场地的危险性分析结果,并与中国地震烈度区划图(1990)的结果进行比较,由此来说明本方法具有一定的可利用性。
The general seismic hazard analysis is based on delineation of potential earthquake source, determination of the seismic activity parameters and seismic motion attenuation relations and calculation of bedrock seismic ground motion parameters. On the other hand, the historical earthquake catalogue as basic data is usually obtained by analyzing the historical earthquake records. It is obvious that there exists uncertainty in each analysis step and it is impossible to be satisfactory for current analysis of the correction of uncertainty. In this paper, the maximum likelihood method is used to proceed to seismic hazard in different years and different exceed-probability by using of historical earthquake records. Taking Huailai, Hejian, Tangshan, Chengde, Ningjin, and Shijiazhuang as the case studies, we calculate the seismic risk probabilities respectively. Finally our results are compared with that from the seismic intensity zoning map China.
The general seismic hazard analysis is based on delineation of potential earthquake source, determination of the seismic activity parameters and seismic motion attenuation relations and calculation of bedrock seismic ground motion parameters. On the other hand, the historical earthquake catalogue as basic data is usually obtained by analyzing the historical earthquake records. It is obvious that there exists uncertainty in each analysis step and it is impossible to be satisfactory for current analysis of the correction of uncertainty. In this paper, the maximum likelihood method is used to proceed to seismic hazard in different years and different exceed-probability by using of historical earthquake records. Taking Huailai, Hejian, Tangshan, Chengde, Ningjin, and Shijiazhuang as the case studies, we calculate the seismic risk probabilities respectively. Finally our results are compared with that from the seismic intensity zoning map China.
引文
丁韫玉,耿秀玲,1991.潜在震源区不确定因素分析.中国地震,7(4):33—38.
高孟潭,1984.京津唐地区地震危险性分析.国家地震局地球物理所硕士学位论文.
河北省地震局,1990.河北省地震资料汇编.北京:地震出版社.
金学申,1994.不同精度资料的地震危险性方法.地震学报,16(3):281—287.
李善邦,1981.中国地震.北京:地震出版社.
刘昌森,1993.历史有感地震处理的原则和方法.东北地震研究,9(3):16—24.
鄢家全,韩炜,1996.地震活动性参数的不确定性及其对区划结果的影响.中国地震,12(增刊):71—77.
朱丽,胡贤,1986.地震危险性分析中的不确定性分析.国家地震局工程力学研究所研究报告.
Aki K.,1965.Maximum likelihood estimate of bin the formula logN=a-bM and its confidence limits.Bull.Earthquake Res.Inst.,Tokyo Univ.43:237—239.
Bender B.,1986.Modeling source zone bounding uncertainty in seismic hazard analysis.B.S.S.A,76(2):329—341.
Edwards A.W.F.,1972.Likelihood.Cambridge University Press,Newyork,p.235.
McGuire R.B.,1995.Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and design earthquakes:closing the loop.B.S.S.A,85:1275—1284.
Rao C.R.,1973.Linear Statistical Inference and Its Application.Ed.2,John Wiley and Sons,New York,P.625.
Utsu T.,1965.A method for determining the value of b in formula logn=a-bM showing the magnitude-frequeney relation for earthquakes.Geophys.Bull.Hokkaido Univ,13:99—103.
高孟潭,1984.京津唐地区地震危险性分析.国家地震局地球物理所硕士学位论文.
河北省地震局,1990.河北省地震资料汇编.北京:地震出版社.
金学申,1994.不同精度资料的地震危险性方法.地震学报,16(3):281—287.
李善邦,1981.中国地震.北京:地震出版社.
刘昌森,1993.历史有感地震处理的原则和方法.东北地震研究,9(3):16—24.
鄢家全,韩炜,1996.地震活动性参数的不确定性及其对区划结果的影响.中国地震,12(增刊):71—77.
朱丽,胡贤,1986.地震危险性分析中的不确定性分析.国家地震局工程力学研究所研究报告.
Aki K.,1965.Maximum likelihood estimate of bin the formula logN=a-bM and its confidence limits.Bull.Earthquake Res.Inst.,Tokyo Univ.43:237—239.
Bender B.,1986.Modeling source zone bounding uncertainty in seismic hazard analysis.B.S.S.A,76(2):329—341.
Edwards A.W.F.,1972.Likelihood.Cambridge University Press,Newyork,p.235.
McGuire R.B.,1995.Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and design earthquakes:closing the loop.B.S.S.A,85:1275—1284.
Rao C.R.,1973.Linear Statistical Inference and Its Application.Ed.2,John Wiley and Sons,New York,P.625.
Utsu T.,1965.A method for determining the value of b in formula logn=a-bM showing the magnitude-frequeney relation for earthquakes.Geophys.Bull.Hokkaido Univ,13:99—103.
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