地震应急能力指数的量化评估指标体系研究
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摘要
通过科学的指标构建来量化地震风险的预警与应急能力已经成为整合性风险管理框架下地震风险管理的发展方向。本文利用灾害学的量化评估方法,根据统计指数的构建理论,从统计指数的指标构建到实际应用,设计出一套较为系统的地震应急能力指数,希望以此丰富地震风险管理中的研究方法。本文的研究结果显示,从横向对比上看,统计时点影响和经济价值影响使得汶川地震的各项地震应急能力指数数值结果明显高于雅江—康定地震;而从纵向对比上看,两次地震的测算结果均表明地震预测与监控能力指数的综合权重最高,因此在未来的工作中需要增加地震预防过程中的投入,提高地震的预测与监控水平。
Constructing indicators to quantify advance warning and emergency responding for earthquake risk management has become the future direction of the earthquake risk management under integrated risk management framework.Based on quantitative analysis methods in disaster science and statistical index construction principle,this paper designed a complete set of emergency response capacity index of earthquake risk management from theory indicators construction to practical application,in order to develop earthquake risk management research methods.The conclusions were:From horizontal comparison,as the result of time point and economic value factors,the number of earthquake emergency response capability index in Yajiang-Kangding earthquake was higher than Wenchuan earthquake;From longitudinal comparison,the combined weight of prediction and monitoring capability index was the highest in both earthquakes,so we need to increase investment and improve management in earthquake prediction and monitoring.
Constructing indicators to quantify advance warning and emergency responding for earthquake risk management has become the future direction of the earthquake risk management under integrated risk management framework.Based on quantitative analysis methods in disaster science and statistical index construction principle,this paper designed a complete set of emergency response capacity index of earthquake risk management from theory indicators construction to practical application,in order to develop earthquake risk management research methods.The conclusions were:From horizontal comparison,as the result of time point and economic value factors,the number of earthquake emergency response capability index in Yajiang-Kangding earthquake was higher than Wenchuan earthquake;From longitudinal comparison,the combined weight of prediction and monitoring capability index was the highest in both earthquakes,so we need to increase investment and improve management in earthquake prediction and monitoring.
引文
②以上数据是截至2008年9月25日12时新华社授权发布的国务院抗震救灾总指挥部关于汶川地震灾害损失数据的公报.中华人民共和国中央人民政府网http://www.gov.cn/jrzg/2008-09/25/content_1105677.htm.
③以上数据是截止当地时间4月12日19时日本内阁会议所公布的数据.中国网络电视台引述日本《朝日新闻》的报道http://news.cntv.cn/20110314/111714.shtml.
①曾五一.统计估算,理论、方法和应用[M].北京:中国金融出版社,1999.
①马宗晋,李闵峰.自然灾害评估、灾度和对策.中国减灾自然灾害研究[M].全国减轻自然灾害研究讨论会论文集[C].中国科技大学出版社,1990.
[1]帕尔.科夫斯(匈)著,夏一成等译.指数理论与经济现实[M].北京:中国统计出版杜,1990.
[2]段胜.巨灾损失指数在巨灾风险综合评估体系中的作用探析[J].保险研究,2012,(1).
[3]邓砚,聂高众,苏桂武.县市地震应急能力评价指标体系的构建[J].灾害学,2010,(3).
[4]高庆华,张业成.自然灾害灾情统计标准化研究[M].北京:海洋出版社,1997.
[5]葛全胜,邹铭.中国自然灾害风险综合评估初步研究[M].北京:科学出版社,2008.
[6]黄崇福.自然灾害风险分析[M].北京:北京师范大学出版社,2001.
[7]孙慧钧.指数理论研究[M].大连:东北财经大学出版社,1998.
[8]史培军.综合灾害风险管理与巨灾风险防范对策[R].中国保险监督管理委员会讲座材料,2008.
[9]苏为华.统计指标理论与方法论研究[M].北京:中国物价出版社,1998.
[10]汤爱平.自然灾害的概念、等级[J].自然灾害学报,1999,(8).
[11]汪祖杰.可保风险的选择及其度量模型研究[J].保险研究,2008,(6).
[12]徐国详.统计指数理论:方法与应用研究[M].上海:上海人民出版社,2011.
[13]卓志,王伟哲.巨灾风险厚尾分布:POT模型及其应用[J].保险研究,2011,(8).
[14]张林源,杨锡金.论有效减灾与自然灾变过程[J].中国地质灾害与预防学报,1994,(5).
[15]张勤,高亦飞等.城镇社区地震应急能力评价指标体系的构建[J].灾害学,2009,(3).
[16]周志刚.风险可保性理论与巨灾风险的国家管理[D].复旦大学博士学位论文,2005.
[17]Alba Corzo.Measurement and Transfer of Catastrophic Risks:A Simulation Analysis[M].ASTIN Bulletin Press,2008.
[18]Alexander,David.The Study of Natural Disasters,1977～1997:Some Reflections on a Changing Field of Knowledge[J].Disasters.1997,21(4):P284-P304.
[19]Cardona D,Hurtado J E,Chardon A C.Indicators of disaster risk and risk management Summary report for WCDR[R].Program for Latin America and the Caribbean IADB—UNC/IDEA,2005.
[20]Jaimungal S,T Wang.Catastrophe Options with Stochastic Interest Rates and Compound Poisson Losses[J].Mathematics and Economics,2006,38:469-483.
[21]Kunreuther,H.and A.E.Kleffner.Should Earthquake Mitigation Measures BeVoluntary or Required?[J].Journal of Regulatory Economics,1992,(4):321-333.
③以上数据是截止当地时间4月12日19时日本内阁会议所公布的数据.中国网络电视台引述日本《朝日新闻》的报道http://news.cntv.cn/20110314/111714.shtml.
①曾五一.统计估算,理论、方法和应用[M].北京:中国金融出版社,1999.
①马宗晋,李闵峰.自然灾害评估、灾度和对策.中国减灾自然灾害研究[M].全国减轻自然灾害研究讨论会论文集[C].中国科技大学出版社,1990.
[1]帕尔.科夫斯(匈)著,夏一成等译.指数理论与经济现实[M].北京:中国统计出版杜,1990.
[2]段胜.巨灾损失指数在巨灾风险综合评估体系中的作用探析[J].保险研究,2012,(1).
[3]邓砚,聂高众,苏桂武.县市地震应急能力评价指标体系的构建[J].灾害学,2010,(3).
[4]高庆华,张业成.自然灾害灾情统计标准化研究[M].北京:海洋出版社,1997.
[5]葛全胜,邹铭.中国自然灾害风险综合评估初步研究[M].北京:科学出版社,2008.
[6]黄崇福.自然灾害风险分析[M].北京:北京师范大学出版社,2001.
[7]孙慧钧.指数理论研究[M].大连:东北财经大学出版社,1998.
[8]史培军.综合灾害风险管理与巨灾风险防范对策[R].中国保险监督管理委员会讲座材料,2008.
[9]苏为华.统计指标理论与方法论研究[M].北京:中国物价出版社,1998.
[10]汤爱平.自然灾害的概念、等级[J].自然灾害学报,1999,(8).
[11]汪祖杰.可保风险的选择及其度量模型研究[J].保险研究,2008,(6).
[12]徐国详.统计指数理论:方法与应用研究[M].上海:上海人民出版社,2011.
[13]卓志,王伟哲.巨灾风险厚尾分布:POT模型及其应用[J].保险研究,2011,(8).
[14]张林源,杨锡金.论有效减灾与自然灾变过程[J].中国地质灾害与预防学报,1994,(5).
[15]张勤,高亦飞等.城镇社区地震应急能力评价指标体系的构建[J].灾害学,2009,(3).
[16]周志刚.风险可保性理论与巨灾风险的国家管理[D].复旦大学博士学位论文,2005.
[17]Alba Corzo.Measurement and Transfer of Catastrophic Risks:A Simulation Analysis[M].ASTIN Bulletin Press,2008.
[18]Alexander,David.The Study of Natural Disasters,1977～1997:Some Reflections on a Changing Field of Knowledge[J].Disasters.1997,21(4):P284-P304.
[19]Cardona D,Hurtado J E,Chardon A C.Indicators of disaster risk and risk management Summary report for WCDR[R].Program for Latin America and the Caribbean IADB—UNC/IDEA,2005.
[20]Jaimungal S,T Wang.Catastrophe Options with Stochastic Interest Rates and Compound Poisson Losses[J].Mathematics and Economics,2006,38:469-483.
[21]Kunreuther,H.and A.E.Kleffner.Should Earthquake Mitigation Measures BeVoluntary or Required?[J].Journal of Regulatory Economics,1992,(4):321-333.
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