新疆年度地震危险区的时空分布特点
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摘要
新疆是我国大陆地区开展年度地震趋势预测最早的省区之一,自1973年以来累计划定105个年度地震危险区。整理总结新疆年度地震危险区的时、空分布及地震对应情况,结果表明年度地震预测总报准率为26%,相当于全国的平均预测水平;年度危险区预测数量与预测面积基本成正比;危险区划定次数最多的构造区域是北天山中西段,以下依次是柯枰块区、乌恰—喀什地区、南天山东段、乌鲁木齐地区、西昆仑地区和阿勒泰—富蕴地区,其中北天山中西段和乌恰—喀什危险区的时、空继承性较强,但预测效果相对较差。对新疆年度地震危险区的历史资料进行整理和总结,能为今后更好地提高新疆年度预测水平积累一些参考经验。
Xinjiang is one of the earliest provinces that carrying out annual earthquake trend prediction in mailand of China,there are 105 seismic risk regions since 1973.the corresponding relation between temporal and spatial distribution of seismic risk region in Xinjiang and earthquakes are summarized,the result shows,accurate ratio of annual earthquake prediction is 26%,it is same with the average prediction level in China;the relation between prediction number and prediction area of annual earthquake prediction is direct proportion;times of region was regard as risk region from large to small in turns are midwest of northern Tianshan mountain,Keping region,Wuqia-kashi region,east of southern Tianshan mountain,Urumqi region,Western Kunlun region and Aletai-fuyun region,and continuity of midwest of northern Tianshan mountain and Wuqia-kashi region is better,but the prediction effect is not good.The historical datum of annual seismic risk region in Xinjiang were summarized,this can give some reference experiences for advancing annual earthquake prediction ability in Xinjiang.
Xinjiang is one of the earliest provinces that carrying out annual earthquake trend prediction in mailand of China,there are 105 seismic risk regions since 1973.the corresponding relation between temporal and spatial distribution of seismic risk region in Xinjiang and earthquakes are summarized,the result shows,accurate ratio of annual earthquake prediction is 26%,it is same with the average prediction level in China;the relation between prediction number and prediction area of annual earthquake prediction is direct proportion;times of region was regard as risk region from large to small in turns are midwest of northern Tianshan mountain,Keping region,Wuqia-kashi region,east of southern Tianshan mountain,Urumqi region,Western Kunlun region and Aletai-fuyun region,and continuity of midwest of northern Tianshan mountain and Wuqia-kashi region is better,but the prediction effect is not good.The historical datum of annual seismic risk region in Xinjiang were summarized,this can give some reference experiences for advancing annual earthquake prediction ability in Xinjiang.
引文
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[13]高国英,李莹甄,聂晓红,等.2006年11月23日乌苏5.1级地震后北天山地震形势分析[J].内陆地震,2007,21(2):113-118.
[2]张国民,刘杰,石耀霖.年度地震预报能力的科学评价[J].地震学报,2002,24(5):525-532.
[3]王海涛.年度地震危险区预测问题的几点初步思考[J].国际地震动态,2005,317:103-105.
[4]苏乃秦.ESEP3.0专家系统在新疆年度地震形势预测中的应用检验[J].内陆地震,2005,19(1):74-80.
[5]高维明,马集遐.地震危险区划分的活动构造依据[J].地震,1996,16(2):105-113.
[6]宋和平,柔洁.论新疆活动构造特征与地震的关系(4)[J].内陆地震,2007,21(1):1-13.
[7]高国英,王筱荣,李莹甄,等.不同构造环境中地震活动对新疆地震形势的影响[J].内陆地震,2006,20(2):102-109.
[8]王筱荣,李莹甄,聂晓红.新疆中强震前地震活动空间演化研究[J].内陆地震,2006,20(3):226-231.
[9]朱令人,王琼.新疆地震年度趋势预报效能的统计评分[J].内陆地震,2004,18(4):289-299.
[10]马宏生,刘杰,吴昊,等.基于R值评分的年度地震预报能力评价[J].地震,2004,24(2):32-37.
[11]陈学忠,陈佩燕,王林瑛.对近年来地震危险区预测效果的评估[J].国际地震动态,2004,312:8-15.
[12]高国英,聂晓红.新疆强震成组活动与前兆异常的演化特征[J].内陆地震,2002,16(2):108-116.
[13]高国英,李莹甄,聂晓红,等.2006年11月23日乌苏5.1级地震后北天山地震形势分析[J].内陆地震,2007,21(2):113-118.
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