2010年我国天灾预测结果的回顾
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摘要
2010年是我国的一个重灾年,利用天灾(旱、涝、震)预测方法,对2010年4月14日玉树强震、西南地区2009-2010年秋、冬、春季连续大旱、汛期长江中下游和青海省多雨、2010年8月7日晚暴雨引发的舟曲泥石流等天灾的预测过程进行了分析。结果表明,洪涝、干旱和强震等天灾均可与地球外核的对流活动(Benard对流)相联系,外核对流上升体对壳幔层的顶托是地震形成的原因。由于上升体中心与附近下沉体中心连线的中点是垂直速度的水平切变最强点,很可能就是震中位置所在。两个对流上升体在其中点因共振而形成的"拍频"效应是暴雨形成的原因;而强震后地壳复原(拉伸)效应则是干旱形成的原因。为了与岩石圈中渗流体的"浅地下系统"相区别,把这些活动统称为"深地下系统演变"。
There are many natural disasters in 2010 in China.The prediction process is summarized based on the disaster(drought/flood/earthquake) forecasting methods which be advanced at the beginning of 2010.The prediction include Yushu microseism on 14 April,continuous drought in southwest of China through autumn to spring during 2009-2010.The severe precipitation of the mid-and lower-reaches of Yangtze River in the flood season which also happened in Qinghai Province,debris flow in Zhouqu which caused by downpour on 7 August.The analyzed results show that the natural disasters,which include drought,flood,earthquake and so on,are related with Benard convection in outer core of Earth.The earthquake process is that the outer core convective fluid uprising the Crust-Mantle layer,so the epicenter maybe is the midpoint of the uplifting and sinking where the horizontal shearing of vertical velocity is the most.The downpour is arosed that the mid-point of two convective uplifting fluid can constitute a 'beat frequency' effect because of 'beat'.The reset(tension) of Crust effects after strong earthquake is the cause of drought.These actions are called as the 'develop of the deep system below ground' collectively,so we can distinguish them from the fluid conductivity named 'Shallow system' in lithosphere.
There are many natural disasters in 2010 in China.The prediction process is summarized based on the disaster(drought/flood/earthquake) forecasting methods which be advanced at the beginning of 2010.The prediction include Yushu microseism on 14 April,continuous drought in southwest of China through autumn to spring during 2009-2010.The severe precipitation of the mid-and lower-reaches of Yangtze River in the flood season which also happened in Qinghai Province,debris flow in Zhouqu which caused by downpour on 7 August.The analyzed results show that the natural disasters,which include drought,flood,earthquake and so on,are related with Benard convection in outer core of Earth.The earthquake process is that the outer core convective fluid uprising the Crust-Mantle layer,so the epicenter maybe is the midpoint of the uplifting and sinking where the horizontal shearing of vertical velocity is the most.The downpour is arosed that the mid-point of two convective uplifting fluid can constitute a 'beat frequency' effect because of 'beat'.The reset(tension) of Crust effects after strong earthquake is the cause of drought.These actions are called as the 'develop of the deep system below ground' collectively,so we can distinguish them from the fluid conductivity named 'Shallow system' in lithosphere.
引文
[1]全国灾情月报[Z].国家减灾中心灾害信息部,2010年4月.
[2]全国灾情月报[Z].国家减灾中心灾害信息部,2010年8月.
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[4]范新岗,汤懋苍.大震前后的地温、降水及浅层热流通量场的结构特征分析[J].地球物理学报,1994,37(增刊Ⅱ):192-203.
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[6]高晓清,汤懋苍,朱德琴.关于“气候系统”与“地球系统”的若干思考[J].地球物理学报,2004,47(2):364-368.
[7]汤懋苍,雍晓春,邓国卫,等.地球系统10-1年变化原因概述[J].高原气象,2009,28(6):1485-1489.
[8]汤懋苍,刘小凤,李栋梁,等.对2003年下半年的天灾预测意见和结果检验[J].高原气象,2005,24(4):585-589.
[9]汤懋苍,成青燕,张东方,等.地气图预测全国月降水的实践总结[J].高原气象,2008,27(5):1054-1059.
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[11]成青燕,汤懋苍,赵红岩.旱灾的地气环流形势分类[J].高原气象,2009,28(6):1490-1497.
[12]汤懋苍,惠小英,郭维栋,等.强震前的“干热异常”与地温、降水波及应变弱停[J].西北地震学报,2010,32(1):99-104.
[13]汤懋苍,梅秀苹,郭维栋.我国105°E以东地区≥5.7级地震的孕震3步曲[J].地球物理学进展,2011,26(4):1141-1146.
[14]郭俊琴,汤懋苍,李万源,等.近50年我国西北区外核拍频涡与强雨区的关系[J].高原气象,2011,30(2):371-375.
[15]马占良,汤懋苍,雍晓春.黄河龙头水库多水月(季)预测的地气图方法[J].高原气象,2010,29(4):1067-1071.
[16]邓国卫,汤懋苍,郭维栋.2009年1月-2010年4月我国地气系统的演变分析[J].高原气象,2011,30(5):1274-1278.
[17]汤懋苍,廖留峰,郭维栋.东北深震的孕震三步曲[J].地球物理学进展,2011,26(6):1931-1937.
[18]郭增建,秦保燕,郭安宁.地气耦合与天灾预测[M].北京:地震出版社,1996:78-112.
[2]全国灾情月报[Z].国家减灾中心灾害信息部,2010年8月.
[3]汤懋苍,张建.季平均3.2m地温距平场在汛期预报中的应用[J].高原气象,1994,13(2):178-187.
[4]范新岗,汤懋苍.大震前后的地温、降水及浅层热流通量场的结构特征分析[J].地球物理学报,1994,37(增刊Ⅱ):192-203.
[5]汤懋苍,高晓清.1980-1993年我国“地热涡”的若干统计特征I“地热涡”的时空分布[J].中国科学(B辑),1995,25(11):1186-1192.
[6]高晓清,汤懋苍,朱德琴.关于“气候系统”与“地球系统”的若干思考[J].地球物理学报,2004,47(2):364-368.
[7]汤懋苍,雍晓春,邓国卫,等.地球系统10-1年变化原因概述[J].高原气象,2009,28(6):1485-1489.
[8]汤懋苍,刘小凤,李栋梁,等.对2003年下半年的天灾预测意见和结果检验[J].高原气象,2005,24(4):585-589.
[9]汤懋苍,成青燕,张东方,等.地气图预测全国月降水的实践总结[J].高原气象,2008,27(5):1054-1059.
[10]汤懋苍,柳苗,朱德琴.我国东部的准经向降水带及其成因分析[J].高原气象,2006,25(5):964-968.
[11]成青燕,汤懋苍,赵红岩.旱灾的地气环流形势分类[J].高原气象,2009,28(6):1490-1497.
[12]汤懋苍,惠小英,郭维栋,等.强震前的“干热异常”与地温、降水波及应变弱停[J].西北地震学报,2010,32(1):99-104.
[13]汤懋苍,梅秀苹,郭维栋.我国105°E以东地区≥5.7级地震的孕震3步曲[J].地球物理学进展,2011,26(4):1141-1146.
[14]郭俊琴,汤懋苍,李万源,等.近50年我国西北区外核拍频涡与强雨区的关系[J].高原气象,2011,30(2):371-375.
[15]马占良,汤懋苍,雍晓春.黄河龙头水库多水月(季)预测的地气图方法[J].高原气象,2010,29(4):1067-1071.
[16]邓国卫,汤懋苍,郭维栋.2009年1月-2010年4月我国地气系统的演变分析[J].高原气象,2011,30(5):1274-1278.
[17]汤懋苍,廖留峰,郭维栋.东北深震的孕震三步曲[J].地球物理学进展,2011,26(6):1931-1937.
[18]郭增建,秦保燕,郭安宁.地气耦合与天灾预测[M].北京:地震出版社,1996:78-112.
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