青藏高原北部地区M≥7强震有序网络结构及其预测研究
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摘要
青藏高原北部地区是中国西部主要地震区,自1700年以来,该区M≥7强震具有显著的有序性,其主要有序值为106～107a、77～78a、53～54a、26～27a、10～11a与3～4a等.以翁文波信息预测理论为指导,将有序性分析与复杂网络技术相结合,努力探索具有中国特色自主创新的强震中长期预测方法,构建了青藏高原北部地区M≥7强震信息有序网络结构.在总结该区21世纪以来3次大震(2001年昆仑山8.1级大震、2008年汶川8.0级大震和2010年玉树7.3级强震)预测研究的基础上,根据所建强震有序网络结构提出新的预测意见:2014—2015年、2026—2027年和2030年前后该区仍有可能发生M≥7强震.研究结果表明此方法对于强震的中长期预测具有独特的效果.
The northern Tibetan Plateau region is a main seismic zone in west China.Since 1700,M≥7 strong earthquakes have showed an obvious commensurability and orderliness in this region.The main ordered values are 106-107 a,77-78 a、53-54 a,26-27 a,10-11 a and 3-4 a.According to the information forecasting theory of WENG Wenbo and combining ordered analysis with complex network technology,we try to explore the practical method for strong earthquake prediction with Chinese characteristics,and build informational ordered network structure of M≥7 strong earthquakes in the northern Tibetan Plateau.In this paper,we study into the prediction of 3 great earthquakes(the 2001 Kunlunshan M8.1,the 2008 Wenchuan M8.0 and the 2010 Yushu M7.3 earthquake) based on the method of ordered network structure,and give many notorious earthquake examples in China and abroad.Meanwhile,the cause of formation about Wenchuan and Yushu earthquake have been discussed primarily.At last,we present a new prediction opinion that the future M≥7 strong earthquakes will probably occur in 2014—2015,2026—2027 and 2030 in this region.The results show that strong earthquake can be predicted and this method produces satisfactory results in moderate and long term prediction for strong earthquakes.
The northern Tibetan Plateau region is a main seismic zone in west China.Since 1700,M≥7 strong earthquakes have showed an obvious commensurability and orderliness in this region.The main ordered values are 106-107 a,77-78 a、53-54 a,26-27 a,10-11 a and 3-4 a.According to the information forecasting theory of WENG Wenbo and combining ordered analysis with complex network technology,we try to explore the practical method for strong earthquake prediction with Chinese characteristics,and build informational ordered network structure of M≥7 strong earthquakes in the northern Tibetan Plateau.In this paper,we study into the prediction of 3 great earthquakes(the 2001 Kunlunshan M8.1,the 2008 Wenchuan M8.0 and the 2010 Yushu M7.3 earthquake) based on the method of ordered network structure,and give many notorious earthquake examples in China and abroad.Meanwhile,the cause of formation about Wenchuan and Yushu earthquake have been discussed primarily.At last,we present a new prediction opinion that the future M≥7 strong earthquakes will probably occur in 2014—2015,2026—2027 and 2030 in this region.The results show that strong earthquake can be predicted and this method produces satisfactory results in moderate and long term prediction for strong earthquakes.
引文
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[2]徐道一.大地震发生的网络性质:兼论有关地震预测的争论[J].地学前缘,2001,8(2):211-216XU Daoyi.The network features of large earthquake occurrence and some words on the debate of earthquake prediction[J].Earth Science Frontiers,2001,8(2):211-216
[3]XU Daoyi,Ouchi T.On the network feature of large earthquake occurrence that appear in the spatio-tempral distribution[C]∥The Seismological Society of Japan.Programme and Abstracts,1997(2):54
[4]徐道一.天地生人网络研究的新方法:实例和认识[J].矿物岩石地球化学通报,2005,24(2):178-180XU Daoyi.Research on new method of the network among cosmos,earth,biology and humans:Examples and cognition[J].Bulletin of Mineralogy,Petrology and Geochemistry,2005,24(2):178-180
[5]徐道一.自组织网络与灾害链研究[C]∥苏门答腊地震海啸影响中国华南天气的初步研究:中国首届灾害链学术研讨会论文集.北京:气象出版社,2007:175-179XU Daoyi.Research on self-organization network and disaster chains[C]∥Commentaries on the first disaster chains seminar in China.Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2007:175-179
[6]Xu D Y,Men K P,Deng Z H.Self-organized ordering of earthquakes(M≥8)in mainland China[J].Engineering Sciences,2010,8(4):13-17
[7]门可佩.西藏地区强震活动趋势的初步研究[J].西北地震学报,1996,18(4):1-8MEN Kepei.Preliminary study on the trend of strong earthquake activity in Xizang region[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,1996,18(4):1-8
[8]门可佩,夏建平,赵兵.对青藏高原北块7级强震时间分布的有序性进行预测探索[J].内陆地震,1994,8(1):63-66MEN Kepei,XIA Jianping,ZHAO Bing.Research on temporal orderliness of strong earthquake(M≥7)and its prediction in north block of Tibetan Plateau[J].Inland Earthquake,1994,8(1):63-66
[9]门可佩.2001年昆仑山8.1级大震及其趋势研究[J].地震,2002,22(3):39-44MEN Kepei.Study on Kunlunshan M8.1earthquake in2001and the trend of strong earthquakes[J].Earthquake,2002,22(3):39-44
[10]门可佩.青藏高原北部地区7级强震的有序网络特征及其预测研究[J].地球物理学进展,2003,18(4):765-771MEN Kepei.Ordered network feature of M≥7earthquakes and its prediction in the northern part of QinghaiXizang Plateau[J].Progress in Geophysics,2003,18(4):765-771
[11]门可佩.新疆及其邻区M s≥7强震的预测研究[J].西北地震学报,1994,16(4):29-36MEN Kepei.Study on prediction of strong earthquakes(M≥7)in Xinjiang and nearby area[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,1994,16(4):29-36
[12]门可佩.信息预测理论与新疆地区7级强震趋势研究[J].地球物理学进展,2002,17(3):418-423MEN Kepei.Theory of informational forecast and M≥7strong earthquake trend in Xinjiang area[J].Progress in Geophysics,2002,17(3):418-423
[13]门可佩.江苏-南黄海地区强震有序网络结构与地震活动分期研究[J].地球物理学进展,2006,21(3):1028-1032MEN Kepei.Ordered network structure of strong earthquakes and division of seismic period in Jiangsu-South Yellow Sea region[J].Progress in Geophysics,2006,21(3):1028-1032
[14]门可佩.青藏北块M≥7强震有序网络结构与汶川8级大震预测回顾[J].中国工程科学,2009,11(6):82-88MEN Kepei.Orderly network structure of M≥7strong earthquakes in the north of Tibet-Plateau and retrospect of prediction for Wenchuan M8.0earthquake[J].Engineering Science,2009,11(6):82-88
[15]门可佩.江苏-南黄海地区地震链及其有序网络结构研究[J].地球物理学报,2009,52(10):2573-2579MEN Kepei.Research on earthquake chains and its orderly network structure in Jiangsu-South Yellow Sea region[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2009,52(10):2573-2579
[16]MEN Kepei,LIU Wenjun.The orderly network structure of M≥7strong earthquake chain and its prediction in Xinjiang region of China[J].Z Naturforsch,2011,66a:363-371
[17]邓起东,张培震,冉勇康,等.中国活动构造基本特征[J].中国科学:D辑,2002,32(12):1020-1031DENG Qidong,ZHANG Peizhen,RAN Yongkang,et al.Basic characteristics of active tectonics in China[J].Sciences in China:Series D,2002,32(12):1020-1031
[18]楚全芝,邓志辉,杨竹转.中国大陆地震构造特点及其在地震危险性预测中的作用[J].地球物理学进展,2007,22(2):395-402CHU Quanzhi,DENG Zhihui,YANG Zhuzhuan.Seismotectonic features and their effects of the earthquake prediction in China-mainland[J].Progress in Geophysics,2007,22(2):395-402
[19]中国地震局震害防御司.中国历史强震目录(公元前23世纪—公元1911年)[M].北京:地震出版社,1995Department of Earthquake Disaster Prevention,State Seismological Bureau.Catalogue of China's historical strong earthquakes(the23rd century BC—1911AD)[M].Beijing:Seismological Press,1995
[20]中国地震局震害防御司.中国近代地震目录(M s≥4.7,公元1912—1990年)[M].北京:中国科学技术出版社,1999Department of Earthquake Disaster Prevention,China Earthquake Administration.Catalogue of China's earthquakes in modern times(1912—1990AD,M s≥4.7)[M].Beijing:China Science and Technology Press,1999
[21]陈运泰.汶川特大地震的震级和断层长度[J].科技导报,2008,26(10):26-27CHEN Yuntai.On the magnitude and the fault length of the great Wenchuan earthquake[J].Seience and Technology Review,2008,26(10):26-27
[22]翁文波.预测论基础[M].北京:石油工业出版社,1984WENG Wenbo.Fundamentals of forecasting theory[M].Beijing:Petroleum Industry Press,1984
[23]翁文波,吕牛顿,张清.预测学[M].北京:石油工业出版社,1996WENG Wenbo,LNiudun,ZHANG Qing.Theory of Forecasting[M].Beijing:Petroleum Industry Press,1996
[24]翁文波原著,门可佩,秦伟良整理.初级数据分布[M].北京:石油工业出版社,2004WENG Wenbo,MEN Kepei,QIN Weiliang.Primary data distribution[M].Beijing:Petroleum Industry Press,2004
[25]裴青莉,门可佩.青藏高原北部地区未来3～5年内强震形势研究[J].高原地震,1997,9(3):47-53PEI Qingli,MEN Kepei.Research on the trend of strong earthquakes in future3-5years in the north Tibetan Plateau[J].Plateau Earthquake Research,1997,9(3):47-53
[26]门可佩,李端.干支周期与地震预测[C]∥翁文波院士与天灾预测.北京:石油工业出版社,2001:201-207MEN Kepei,LI Duan.Gan-Zhi cycle and earthquake prediction[C]∥Academician WENG Wenbo and Prediction of Natural Disaster.Beijing:Petroleum Industry Press,2001:201-207
[27]门可佩.2000年青海玛多6.6级强震中长期预测回顾[J].国际地震动态,2001(9):5-10MEN Kepei.Review of the medium and long-term predictions on Maduo Ms6.6strong earthquake in2000in Qinghai Province[J].Recent Development in World Seismology,2001(9):5-10
[28]徐道一.21世纪初全球巨灾群发期的认识及其预测意义[C]∥中国地球物理2010.北京:地震出版社,2010:384-385.XU Daoyi.Cognition and prediction significance.on global huge at the early of the21st century[C]∥The Chinese Geophysics2010.Beijing:Seismological Press,2010:384-385
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