兴安-东蒙块体中强地震空间迁移特征分析——黄金分割法
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摘要
地震是一种自然现象,地震的发生遵循自然节律。前人曾将黄金分割法应用于地震发震时间的研究,个别学者将其应用于地震时空特征的分析。在多次尝试的基础上,发现将黄金分割法应用于兴安-东蒙块体M_L 5.0以上中强地震空间迁移特征的研究效果比较明显。按照时间先后顺序发生的3次中强地震,在一定空间范围内形成黄金三角,过结束地震和对边的黄金分割点构成了黄金分割线,该黄金分割线可能是未来地震的震中轨迹线,多条黄金分割线的交汇区域可能是未来地震的危险区;该方法预测未来地震在一年内发震的概率为86%,可以应用于中短期地震的预测;超过2年视为缺震黄金分割线,而多条缺震黄金分割线的交汇区可以应用于中长期地震危险区的判定。本文阐述了一种现象,造成这种迁移规律的物理机制和动力源有待于深入研究。但该方法的研究丰富了黄金分割理论在地震学中的应用,无疑为地震分析预报空间图像的研究提供了新思路。
Earthquake is natural phenomenon and it should be following the natural rhythm.Predecessors used the golden section to researching for the time of earthquake and analyzing the temporal and spatial characteristics of earthquake.Based on the multiple sampling, a study on the validity of the moderate earthquakes migration was discovered by golden section using in the Xing an-Dongmeng tectonic blocks.Three moderate earthquakes, ordered according to precedence, compose golden triangular distribution, and the golden cut-off rule through the end earthquake and golden section is the epicenter trajectory.The crossover zone is the seismic danger area by many golden cut-off rules.This method predicts future earthquake occurrence with probability of 86 percent in one year for the Mid-short Term earthquake prediction. Many golden cut-off rules which earthquake absent after two years could be used to the seismic danger area prediction for mid-long term.Mechanics and power supply of the phenomenon which this passage represents should be profound research.On the characteristics of golden section completes application in seismography and supplies new method for earthquake prediction of place image.
Earthquake is natural phenomenon and it should be following the natural rhythm.Predecessors used the golden section to researching for the time of earthquake and analyzing the temporal and spatial characteristics of earthquake.Based on the multiple sampling, a study on the validity of the moderate earthquakes migration was discovered by golden section using in the Xing an-Dongmeng tectonic blocks.Three moderate earthquakes, ordered according to precedence, compose golden triangular distribution, and the golden cut-off rule through the end earthquake and golden section is the epicenter trajectory.The crossover zone is the seismic danger area by many golden cut-off rules.This method predicts future earthquake occurrence with probability of 86 percent in one year for the Mid-short Term earthquake prediction. Many golden cut-off rules which earthquake absent after two years could be used to the seismic danger area prediction for mid-long term.Mechanics and power supply of the phenomenon which this passage represents should be profound research.On the characteristics of golden section completes application in seismography and supplies new method for earthquake prediction of place image.
引文
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郭增建,郭安宁,等.1966年邢台大震的回顾性预测讨论[J].内陆地震,1996,20(2) :97-101．
郭增建,韩延本,等.用三性法对巴楚伽师6． 8级地震的跨越式预测[J].自然灾害学报,2003,12(4) :16-19．
郭增建.黄金分割数在灾害科学中的意义[J].西北地震学报,1986,8(4) :85-86．
郭增建,秦保燕.灾害物理学[M].陕西:陕西科学技术出版社,1989．
郭增建,吴瑾冰.中国南北地震带甘川段大震活动规律的讨论[J].高原气象,1999,18(3) :409-415．
何崇君.中国大陆8级地震的空间关联特征及复发周期探讨[J].灾害学,2004,19(3) :86-91．
李继业,胡滨生,等.中强地震空间分布“X”图像及其含义[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2010,31(1) :6-11．
孙文斌,和跃时.中国东北地区地震活动特征及其与日本海板块俯冲的关系[J].地震地质,2004,26(1) :122-132．
祝意青,王双绪,等.南北地震带强震活动的时空关系现象探讨[J].西北地震学报,2003,25(2) :179-182．
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