震害评估系统中的宏观经济指标的网格化技术及实现
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摘要
国内当前的地震灾害应急评估系统基础数据库以具有空间面属性的乡镇级行政区为最小统计单元,乡镇人口及各类房屋建筑面积在评估时一般按照行政区面积进行了平均化处理,而未考虑实际人口分布的差异。本文采用前人在人口密度与城乡空间分布及城乡GDP分布之间的统计模型,以及基于宏观经济指标的地震灾害快速评估思路,深入探讨了以乡镇行政区为统计单元转化为以规则网格作为统计单元的震害预测方法。通过与GoogleEarth影像对比,并将本文编写的基于宏观经济指标进行震害快速评估的程序所计算的结果,与当前地震灾害应急评估系统的计算结果进行对比,结果表明,网格化后的数据不仅能有效地体现天津地区的人口、经济分布特征,而且灾害评估结果也比较稳定可靠,同时在计算速度上还快了1个量级以上。
In current earthquake loss evaluation database, the collected basic data is based on the minimal statistical unit of towns that confined to the administration map. Although there is the diversity of population density and the GDP in different town administration map, the evaluation program codes make an average application with town area in practice. In this paper, we discuss ed the feasibility to grid basic data from database, and validate the rationality of constructing earthquake loss evaluation basic data with gridding data. Our results are compared with the Google Earth image and the results from current earthquake loss evaluation system. It is found that the regular grid data can effectively represent the distribution of population density and GDP of Tianjin. Moreover, our results of earthquake loss evaluation are considerably stable, and one order of less time consuming for calculation.
In current earthquake loss evaluation database, the collected basic data is based on the minimal statistical unit of towns that confined to the administration map. Although there is the diversity of population density and the GDP in different town administration map, the evaluation program codes make an average application with town area in practice. In this paper, we discuss ed the feasibility to grid basic data from database, and validate the rationality of constructing earthquake loss evaluation basic data with gridding data. Our results are compared with the Google Earth image and the results from current earthquake loss evaluation system. It is found that the regular grid data can effectively represent the distribution of population density and GDP of Tianjin. Moreover, our results of earthquake loss evaluation are considerably stable, and one order of less time consuming for calculation.
引文
天津市地质灾害防治与防震减灾科技问题研究课题组,2004.天津市地质灾害防治与防震减灾科技问题研究报告.
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陈理洪,2008.基于Copula函数的中国人口总量与GDP总量相关性研究.南阳师范学院学报,7(9):27—28.
葛美玲,封志明,2009.中国人口分布的密度分级与重心曲线特征分析.地理学报,64(2):202—211.
李倢,中村良平,2008.城市空间人口密度模型研究综述.国外城市规划,21(1):40—47.
刘恢先,1986.唐山大地震震害(I—II).北京:地震出版社.
廖邦固,徐建刚,韩雪培等,2008.1990—2000年上海中心城区人口密度模拟与时空变化分析.华东师范大学学报,(4):130—139.
吕安民,2006.中国省级人口增长率和GDP增长率及其相关关系研究.郑州大学学报,38(1):110—114.
王晓青,丁香,王龙等,2009.四川汶川8级大地震灾害损失快速评估研究.地震学报,31(2):205—211.
尹之潜,1996.结构易损性分类和未来地震灾害估计.中国地震,12(1):49—55.
中国国家统计局,2010.天津2009年统计年鉴(1949—2009特载版).北京:中国统计出版社.
Chen Y.,Chen L.,Federico G.,Ota K.and Li J.,2002.Seismic hazard and loss estimation for Central America.Natural Hazards,25:161—175.
Chen Q.,Chen Y.,Liu J.and Chen L.,1997.Quick and approximate estimation of earthquake loss based on macroscopic index of exposure and population distribution.Natural Hazards,15:217—229.
陈火星,许改玲,沈茂英,2009.成都市人口密度分布差异的影响因素.南京人口管理干部学院学报,25(2):37—41.
陈理洪,2008.基于Copula函数的中国人口总量与GDP总量相关性研究.南阳师范学院学报,7(9):27—28.
葛美玲,封志明,2009.中国人口分布的密度分级与重心曲线特征分析.地理学报,64(2):202—211.
李倢,中村良平,2008.城市空间人口密度模型研究综述.国外城市规划,21(1):40—47.
刘恢先,1986.唐山大地震震害(I—II).北京:地震出版社.
廖邦固,徐建刚,韩雪培等,2008.1990—2000年上海中心城区人口密度模拟与时空变化分析.华东师范大学学报,(4):130—139.
吕安民,2006.中国省级人口增长率和GDP增长率及其相关关系研究.郑州大学学报,38(1):110—114.
王晓青,丁香,王龙等,2009.四川汶川8级大地震灾害损失快速评估研究.地震学报,31(2):205—211.
尹之潜,1996.结构易损性分类和未来地震灾害估计.中国地震,12(1):49—55.
中国国家统计局,2010.天津2009年统计年鉴(1949—2009特载版).北京:中国统计出版社.
Chen Y.,Chen L.,Federico G.,Ota K.and Li J.,2002.Seismic hazard and loss estimation for Central America.Natural Hazards,25:161—175.
Chen Q.,Chen Y.,Liu J.and Chen L.,1997.Quick and approximate estimation of earthquake loss based on macroscopic index of exposure and population distribution.Natural Hazards,15:217—229.
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