应对全球变化的中国地质灾害综合减灾战略研究
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摘要
为了探索极端气候事件引发重大地质灾害的综合减灾防灾战略,提高主动减灾防灾的科技能力与管理水平,积极应对全球变化条件下中国地质灾害防治面临的挑战,本文在"全球灾变事件与重大地质灾害减灾战略研究会"与会专家汇报和讨论的基础上,结合近年来国内重大地质灾害事件,从新构造与地震活动,气候变化,人口与城镇化进程三个方面开展分析,试图探讨我国2010年重大地质灾害多发,群发的原因,并对我国地质灾害今后面临的总体形势做出宏观研判。综合分析认为:①近年来全球构造运动和地震活动进入一个新的相对活跃期,我国处于欧亚地震带和环太平洋地震带的交汇区,是现今构造地震活动强烈响应区,尤其是印度板块的强烈活动,使青藏高原周缘地区的地震活动频繁,断裂活动增强,内外动力耦合作用下的地质灾害频发是总体趋势;②全球气候变化引起的极端气候异常条件使地质灾害的成灾模式趋于多样化和复杂化,由于中国大陆是全球最大大陆性气候和海洋性气候交汇地带,也是地貌高差气候变化最大的地区,特别是2010年长时间干旱,汛期集中的高强度、长持时的降雨、局部强暴雨导致大规模滑坡泥石流灾害,尤其是在青藏高原周缘等内动力作用强烈地区,导致地质灾害频发;③人口增长、城镇化进程及工程经济活动是地质灾害发生不可忽视的重要因素,城镇化建设和工程经济活动规模大,且逐步向生态地质环境相对脆弱的地区转移,城镇人口密度快速增加,特别是山区城镇自主防灾减灾意识薄弱,直接导致地质灾害伤亡和损失程度加重。为了应对全球变化条件下的中国地质灾害形势,提高我国地质灾害防灾科技能力与管理水平,从我国地质灾害防灾减灾的现状分析入手,充分借鉴国际自然灾害综合减灾与风险管理的成功经验与策略,从推进中国地质灾害风险管理的角度提出了7点综合减灾建议,以期起到抛砖引玉的作用,推动政府管理部门、专业技术人员参与地质灾害综合减灾的广泛交流与讨论,促进防灾减灾科技与策略在实践中应用,为应对全球变化的中国地质灾害综合减灾集思广益。
The purpose of this paper is to discuss the integrated mitigation strategies for catastrophic landslide induced by the extreme weather events, to enhance the capability of science, technology and management of initiative landslide prevention and mitigation, which as activities undertaken to strengthen response capacities to landslide under the global change condition in China. Based on the presentation and discussion of the participants of workshop on Global catastrophic event and mitigation strategy for major landslide, combination with the major landslide events in recent years, this paper will analyze the impact of neotectonics movement and seismic activity, climate change, population growth and urbanization process, try to explore why there were so many and frequently landslide occurred in 2010 and make a macro judgment of the overall situation of landslide prevention in the future. Comprehensive analysis preliminary revealed that: ① In recent years, the global tectonic movement and seismic activity were into a new relative active period, China is located at the intersection area of the Eurasian seismic belt and the circum-Pacific seismic belt, where is the strongest response area of current tectonic activity and earthquake. Especially, due to the Indian plate intense activity, the margin of the Tibetan Plateau region trend to frequently seismic activity, enhanced intensity of fault activity and hence, more frequently landslide occurrence by interaction of internal and external motivation in the recent future. ② With the impact of global climate change, extreme and abnormal patterns weather conditions make the mechanism of landslide tend to diverse and complex, due to China is the largest convergence of continental climate and oceanic climate zone, also the wariest climate difference region caused by height difference of landscape, especially in 2010, a long time drought followed with concentration high-intensity and long duration rainfall in the raining season, local strong storm caused large-scale landslide, flooding and debris flow, particularly in the margin of the Tibetan Plateau; ③Population growth, urbanization, construction and economic activity are important factors for landslide risk which should not to be ignored. Large scale urban developments with high intensity engineering construction, economical activities have been gradually transferring into western China, where ecological and geological environment is relatively fragile. The rapid increasing population density in urban area, especially in mountainous city or town, which relatively lack of independent capacity of landslide prevention and mitigation, directly caused increasing casualties and properties loss. In order to strengthen adaptive response capacities to landslide under the global change situation in China, this paper will present 7 comprehensive mitigation proposals for discussion which learning from international natural disaster reduction and risk management experience, and try to promote the government departments, professional and technical staff involved in integrated mitigation communication and discussion, to promote landslide prevention and mitigation technology and strategies applied in practice, which may contribute to comprehensive landslide mitigation strategies for global change in China.
The purpose of this paper is to discuss the integrated mitigation strategies for catastrophic landslide induced by the extreme weather events, to enhance the capability of science, technology and management of initiative landslide prevention and mitigation, which as activities undertaken to strengthen response capacities to landslide under the global change condition in China. Based on the presentation and discussion of the participants of workshop on Global catastrophic event and mitigation strategy for major landslide, combination with the major landslide events in recent years, this paper will analyze the impact of neotectonics movement and seismic activity, climate change, population growth and urbanization process, try to explore why there were so many and frequently landslide occurred in 2010 and make a macro judgment of the overall situation of landslide prevention in the future. Comprehensive analysis preliminary revealed that: ① In recent years, the global tectonic movement and seismic activity were into a new relative active period, China is located at the intersection area of the Eurasian seismic belt and the circum-Pacific seismic belt, where is the strongest response area of current tectonic activity and earthquake. Especially, due to the Indian plate intense activity, the margin of the Tibetan Plateau region trend to frequently seismic activity, enhanced intensity of fault activity and hence, more frequently landslide occurrence by interaction of internal and external motivation in the recent future. ② With the impact of global climate change, extreme and abnormal patterns weather conditions make the mechanism of landslide tend to diverse and complex, due to China is the largest convergence of continental climate and oceanic climate zone, also the wariest climate difference region caused by height difference of landscape, especially in 2010, a long time drought followed with concentration high-intensity and long duration rainfall in the raining season, local strong storm caused large-scale landslide, flooding and debris flow, particularly in the margin of the Tibetan Plateau; ③Population growth, urbanization, construction and economic activity are important factors for landslide risk which should not to be ignored. Large scale urban developments with high intensity engineering construction, economical activities have been gradually transferring into western China, where ecological and geological environment is relatively fragile. The rapid increasing population density in urban area, especially in mountainous city or town, which relatively lack of independent capacity of landslide prevention and mitigation, directly caused increasing casualties and properties loss. In order to strengthen adaptive response capacities to landslide under the global change situation in China, this paper will present 7 comprehensive mitigation proposals for discussion which learning from international natural disaster reduction and risk management experience, and try to promote the government departments, professional and technical staff involved in integrated mitigation communication and discussion, to promote landslide prevention and mitigation technology and strategies applied in practice, which may contribute to comprehensive landslide mitigation strategies for global change in China.
引文
国家发展和改革委员会.2011.中国应对气候变化的政策与行动——2010年度报告.[2011-03-10]http://www.ccchina.gov.cn/WebSite/CCChina/UpFile/File927.pdf.
吴辉龙.2010.台湾在异常气候下山坡地灾害处理策略.汶川地震次生山地灾害形成机理及风险控制研讨会.2010年8月10日.
殷跃平.地质灾害一半以上由人为活动引发.2010年6月28日,中央电视台面对面访谈实录.[2012-02-21]http://news.cntv.cn/china/20100628/100011.shtml.
殷跃平.2010.近期几起特大地质灾害成灾机理分析.全球灾变事件与重大地质灾害战略研讨会.2010年11月12日.
黄润秋.2011.汶川地震地质灾害后效应分析.工程地质学报,19(2):145～151.
许强.2010.四川省8·13特大泥石流灾害特点、成因与启示.工程地质学报,18(5):?596～608.
许强,黄润秋,殷跃平,侯圣山,董秀军,范宣梅,汤明高.2009.2009年6·5重庆武隆鸡尾山崩滑灾害基本特征与成因机理初步研究.工程地质学报,17?(4):?433～444
殷跃平,朱继良,杨胜元.2010.贵州关岭大寨高速远程滑坡—碎屑流研究.工程地质学报,18(4):?445～454.
张若琳,孟晖,连建发,张发旺.2010.基于GIS的概率比率模型的滑坡易发性评价.地学前缘,17(6):291～296.
余斌,杨永红,苏永超,黄文杰,王高峰.2010.甘肃省舟曲8.7特大泥石流调查研究.工程地质学报,18(4):437～444.
张丽君.2009.应对全球气候变暖我国未来环境地质工作取向.国土资源情报,(7):42～48.
石菊松,吴树仁,石玲.2008.遥感在滑坡灾害研究中的应用进展.地质论评,54(4),505～514.
石菊松,石玲,吴树仁.2007.滑坡风险评估的难点和进展.地质论评,53(6):797～806.
Byers,A.C.and Renato Baudo.2007.Changing climates,changinglives:strengthening adaptive response capacities to climate changein the Huascaran Biosphere Reserve,Peru,and Sagarmatha(Mt.Everest)National Park,Nepal.Developments in Earth SurfaceProcesses,Elsevier.10:249～250.
Crozier,M.J.2010.Deciphering the effect of climate change onlandslide activity:A review.Geomorphology,124(3～4):260～267.
Jakob,M.and S.Lambert.2009.Climate change effects on landslidesalong the southwest coast of British Columbia.Geomorphology,107(3～4):275～284.
吴辉龙.2010.台湾在异常气候下山坡地灾害处理策略.汶川地震次生山地灾害形成机理及风险控制研讨会.2010年8月10日.
殷跃平.地质灾害一半以上由人为活动引发.2010年6月28日,中央电视台面对面访谈实录.[2012-02-21]http://news.cntv.cn/china/20100628/100011.shtml.
殷跃平.2010.近期几起特大地质灾害成灾机理分析.全球灾变事件与重大地质灾害战略研讨会.2010年11月12日.
黄润秋.2011.汶川地震地质灾害后效应分析.工程地质学报,19(2):145～151.
许强.2010.四川省8·13特大泥石流灾害特点、成因与启示.工程地质学报,18(5):?596～608.
许强,黄润秋,殷跃平,侯圣山,董秀军,范宣梅,汤明高.2009.2009年6·5重庆武隆鸡尾山崩滑灾害基本特征与成因机理初步研究.工程地质学报,17?(4):?433～444
殷跃平,朱继良,杨胜元.2010.贵州关岭大寨高速远程滑坡—碎屑流研究.工程地质学报,18(4):?445～454.
张若琳,孟晖,连建发,张发旺.2010.基于GIS的概率比率模型的滑坡易发性评价.地学前缘,17(6):291～296.
余斌,杨永红,苏永超,黄文杰,王高峰.2010.甘肃省舟曲8.7特大泥石流调查研究.工程地质学报,18(4):437～444.
张丽君.2009.应对全球气候变暖我国未来环境地质工作取向.国土资源情报,(7):42～48.
石菊松,吴树仁,石玲.2008.遥感在滑坡灾害研究中的应用进展.地质论评,54(4),505～514.
石菊松,石玲,吴树仁.2007.滑坡风险评估的难点和进展.地质论评,53(6):797～806.
Byers,A.C.and Renato Baudo.2007.Changing climates,changinglives:strengthening adaptive response capacities to climate changein the Huascaran Biosphere Reserve,Peru,and Sagarmatha(Mt.Everest)National Park,Nepal.Developments in Earth SurfaceProcesses,Elsevier.10:249～250.
Crozier,M.J.2010.Deciphering the effect of climate change onlandslide activity:A review.Geomorphology,124(3～4):260～267.
Jakob,M.and S.Lambert.2009.Climate change effects on landslidesalong the southwest coast of British Columbia.Geomorphology,107(3～4):275～284.
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