西太平洋俯冲带北部地区M_S≥8强震时空对称特征
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摘要
西太平洋板块俯冲引发的强震与我国东北地区强震活动存在密切联系,对西太平洋板块俯冲带未来强震做出准确的趋势判断,对我国防御重大地震灾害具有重大意义.通过可公度信息提取方法对1900年来西太平洋俯冲带北部地区MS≥8强震进行分析,认为西太平洋俯冲带北部地区在2013年、2014年和2017年强震信号较强,有可能发生较大震级地震.其中2014年信号要强于2013年和2017年.通过震中迁移分析,发现其空间迁移经纬向具有同步性和对称性,其中有6次明显的南迁和6次北迁,纬向迁移对称轴在43°N左右;经向震中迁移,其对称轴在146°E左右,未来强震可能向东北方向迁移,其空间对称轴恰位于千岛群岛海沟和日本海沟两大地质构造的转换处.
Natural disaster risk assessment is one of the hot fields of the study of natural disaster.The key point is to identify the trend of significant natural disasters.The strong earthquake activity on the seductions zone shows the correlativity with the earthquake activity in Northeast area at space-time.It is of great significance to analyze the possible occurring time of the earthquake.Study on Tendency of Judgment of futures MS≥8 earthquake in north-western pacific plate seductions using the method of commensurability information extract and butterfly structure.We believe that there is a strong signal that the earthquake whose level is greater than the eighth grade will occur in 2013,2014 and 2017.It becomes more likely in 2014.From the earthquake migration,we find that the space distributions of epifocus have obviously symmetry.There is 6 times of migration from north to south and return.According to these,the MS≥8 earthquake will occur on the eastern side of 146°E longitude and northern side of 43°N latitude,the symmetry axis located demarcation between Japan Trench and Kurite trench.The physical mechanism of the spatial symmetry has not been figured out,further improvements are needed.
Natural disaster risk assessment is one of the hot fields of the study of natural disaster.The key point is to identify the trend of significant natural disasters.The strong earthquake activity on the seductions zone shows the correlativity with the earthquake activity in Northeast area at space-time.It is of great significance to analyze the possible occurring time of the earthquake.Study on Tendency of Judgment of futures MS≥8 earthquake in north-western pacific plate seductions using the method of commensurability information extract and butterfly structure.We believe that there is a strong signal that the earthquake whose level is greater than the eighth grade will occur in 2013,2014 and 2017.It becomes more likely in 2014.From the earthquake migration,we find that the space distributions of epifocus have obviously symmetry.There is 6 times of migration from north to south and return.According to these,the MS≥8 earthquake will occur on the eastern side of 146°E longitude and northern side of 43°N latitude,the symmetry axis located demarcation between Japan Trench and Kurite trench.The physical mechanism of the spatial symmetry has not been figured out,further improvements are needed.
引文
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[7]臧绍先,宁杰远.西太平洋俯冲带的研究及其动力学意义.地球物理学报,1996,39(2):188-202.Zang S X,Ning J Y.Study on the subduction zone in westernpacific and implication for the geodynamics.Acta GeophysicaSinica(in Chinese),1996,39(2):188-202.
[8]董国胜.地震预测与防灾减灾.地震出版社,2001:95-98.Dong G S.Earthquake prediction and disaster prevention andreduction.Press Earthquake,2001:95-98.
[9]翁文波.预测论基础.石油工业出版社,1984.Weng W B.Prediction theory basis.Petroleum IndustryPress,1984.
[10]翁文波.可公度性.地球物理学报,1981,24(2):151-154.Weng W B.Commensurability.Chinese J.Geophys.(inChinese),1981,24(2):151-154.
[11]白晶,延军平,苏坤慧.新疆MS≥7地震时空对称性及未来趋势判断.内陆地震,2010,24(4):324-329.Bai J,Yan J P,Su K H.The time-space symmetry and thetendency judgment of future MS≥7earthquake in Xin Jiang.Inland Earthquake(in Chinese),2010,24(4):324-329.
[12]延军平,白晶,苏坤慧,等.对称性与部分重大自然灾害趋势研究.地理研究,2011,30(7):1159-1167.Yan J P,Bai J,Su K H,et al.Research on symmetry andtendency of several major natural disasters.GeographicalResearch(in Chinese),2011,30(7):1159-1167.
[13]延军平,闫娜.关于地震预测体系构建可能性及验证.陕西师范大学(哲学社会科学版),2008,37(5):19-23.Yan J P,Yan N.Probability and Verification of Constructingan Earthquake Predicting System.Journal of Shaanxi NormalUniversity(Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition)(inChinese),2008,37(5):19-23.
[14]延军平,闫军辉,白晶,等.基于可公度方法的陕西及邻近地区重大自然灾害发生趋势探讨.灾害学,2010,25(2):18-20.Yan J P,Yan J H,Bai J,et al.Discussion on trends of majornatural disasters in shaanxi province and its vicinities based oncommensurable method.Journal of Catastrophology(inChinese),2010,25(2):18-20.
[15]徐道一.大地震发生的网络性质——兼论有关地震预测的争论.地学前缘,2001,8(2):211-216.Xun D Y.The network features of large earthquakeoccurrenge and words on the debate of earthquake prediction.Earth Science Frontiers(in Chinese),2001,8(2):18-20.
[16]徐道一,王明太,耿庆国,等.翁文波院士的信息预测理论体系的创新性及其意义.地球物理学进展,2007,22(4):1375-1379.Xun D Y,Wang M T,Geng Q G,et al.The creativity ofinformative forecasting theory and it’s significance.Progressin Geophys(in Chinese),2007,22(4):1375-1379.
[17]孙文富,张颖,张国生.东北第五地震活跃期结束时间及最大地震强度预测.东北地震研究,2007,23(1):16-26.Sun W F,Zhang X,Zhang G S.Estimate on ending time of5th seismic active period northeast china and its maximalearthquake intensity.Seismological Research of NortheasternChina(in Chinese),2007,23(1):16-26.
[18]李宇彤,蒋长胜.东北第五活跃期中强震前的矩释放空间扫描特征研究.地震学报2010,32(6):680-694.Li Y T,Jiang C S.Spatial variation of seismic momentrelease before strong and intermediate strength earthquakesin the fifth seismic activity period of northeastern chinaregion.Acta Seismologica Sinica(in Chinese),2010,32(6):680-694.
[19]张国民,傅征祥,桂燮泰等.地震预报引论.科学出版社,2001.Zhang G M,Fu Z X,Gui K T.A General Introduction ofearthquake prediction.Science Press,2001.
[20]郭增建,秦保燕.地震迁移问题综述.国际地震动态,1983,1:8-10.Guo Z J,Qin B Y.Review of earthquake migration.RecentDevelopments In World Seismology(in Chinese),1983.
[21]郭安宁,郭增建.从震源模式讨论2008年汶川8级地震的回顾性预测.地震地质,2010,32(1):115-126.Guo A N,Guo Z J.A discussion on the retrospective of theMS8.0we chuan earthquake in 2008by means of earthquakesource models.Seismology And Geology(in Chinese),2010,32(1):115-124.
[22]郭安宁,陈家超.中国大震问题.地震出版社,2002.Guo A N,Chen J C.Problems of big earthquake in china.Seismological Press,2002.
[23]郭增建,秦保燕.地震成因与地震预报[M].地震出版社,1991.Guo Z J,Qing B Y.Earthquake cause and EarthquakePrediction[M].Seismological Press,1991.
[24]朱桂芝,石耀霖,陈石等.西太平洋板块向我国东北地区深部俯冲的数值模拟.地球物理学报,2009,52(4):950-957.Zhu G Z,Shi Y L,Chen S,et al.Numerical simulations ondeep subduction of western Pacific plate to NE China.Chinese J.Geophys(in Chinese),2009,52(4):950-957.
[25]滕吉文,张忠杰,杨顶辉,等.地震波传播理论与地震“孕育”、发生和发展的深部介质和构造环境.地球物理学进展,2009,24(1):1-19.Teng J W,Zhang Z J,Yang D H,et al.The seismic wavepropagation theory and the deep medium and tectonicenvironment of the earthquake“pregnancy”,generation anddevelopment.Progress in Geophys(in Chinese),2009,24(1):1-19.
[26]秦四清,徐锡伟,胡平,等.孕震断层的多锁固段脆性破裂机制与地震预测新方法的探索.地球物理学进展,2010,53(4):1001-1014.Qin S Q,Xu X W,Hu P,et al.Brittle failure mechanism ofmultiple locked patches in a sesmogenic fault and explorationon a new way for earthquake prediction.Progress in Geophys(in Chinese),2010,53(4):1001-1014.
[27]秦四清,薛雷,王媛媛,等.对孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论的进一步验证及有关科学问题的讨论孕.地球物理学进展,2010,25(4):749-758.Qin S Q,Xue L,Wang Y Y,et al.Further verifications onthe brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches along aseismogenic fault system and discussions on some scienceissues.Progress in Geophys(in Chinese),2010,25(4):749-758.
[2]张凤鸣,张亚江,许晓艳,等.日本海西部-中国东北深震区俯冲运动对东北地区浅源地震的动力作用.东北地震研究,2007,23(1):33-38.Zhang F M,Zhang Y J,Xu X Y,et al.Dynamic action on thesubduction movement of the west part of Japan sea-deep focusearthquake region in northeast area of china to the shallowsource earthquake in northeast area.Seismological Research ofNortheastern China(in Chinese),2007,23(1):33-38.
[3]宁杰远,臧绍先,等.日本海及中国东北地震的深度分布及其应力状态.地震地质,1987,9(2):49-61.Ning J Y,Zang S X,et al.The distribution of earthquakesand stress state in the Japan sea and the northeast China.Seismology and Geology(in Chinese),1987,9(2):49-61.
[4]张立敏,唐晓敏.西太平洋板块附冲运动与中国东北深震带.地球物理学报,1983,26(4):337-340.Zhang L M,Tang X M.The under thrusting movement ofwestern pacific plate and the deep focus earthquakes zone ofnortheast China.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),1983,26(4):337-340.
[5]孟宪森,郑辉,姜锦华.西太平洋板块俯冲运动与我国东北和华北块体地震活动.东北地震研究,2003,19(1):12-18.Meng X S,Zheng H,Jiang J H.Western pacific plateDownthrust and the earthquakes activity of northeast andnorth china.Seismological Research of Northeastern China(inChinese),2003,19(1):12-18.
[6]臧绍先,吴忠良,宁杰远.日本海——鄂霍次克海下俯冲带的应力状态及其深部形变.地球物理学报,1992,35(5):560-572.Zang S X,Wu Z L,Ning J Y.Stress state and deepdeformation of subduction zone in Japan sea and the sea ofOkhotsk and the problem of slab penetration.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),1992,35(5):560-573.
[7]臧绍先,宁杰远.西太平洋俯冲带的研究及其动力学意义.地球物理学报,1996,39(2):188-202.Zang S X,Ning J Y.Study on the subduction zone in westernpacific and implication for the geodynamics.Acta GeophysicaSinica(in Chinese),1996,39(2):188-202.
[8]董国胜.地震预测与防灾减灾.地震出版社,2001:95-98.Dong G S.Earthquake prediction and disaster prevention andreduction.Press Earthquake,2001:95-98.
[9]翁文波.预测论基础.石油工业出版社,1984.Weng W B.Prediction theory basis.Petroleum IndustryPress,1984.
[10]翁文波.可公度性.地球物理学报,1981,24(2):151-154.Weng W B.Commensurability.Chinese J.Geophys.(inChinese),1981,24(2):151-154.
[11]白晶,延军平,苏坤慧.新疆MS≥7地震时空对称性及未来趋势判断.内陆地震,2010,24(4):324-329.Bai J,Yan J P,Su K H.The time-space symmetry and thetendency judgment of future MS≥7earthquake in Xin Jiang.Inland Earthquake(in Chinese),2010,24(4):324-329.
[12]延军平,白晶,苏坤慧,等.对称性与部分重大自然灾害趋势研究.地理研究,2011,30(7):1159-1167.Yan J P,Bai J,Su K H,et al.Research on symmetry andtendency of several major natural disasters.GeographicalResearch(in Chinese),2011,30(7):1159-1167.
[13]延军平,闫娜.关于地震预测体系构建可能性及验证.陕西师范大学(哲学社会科学版),2008,37(5):19-23.Yan J P,Yan N.Probability and Verification of Constructingan Earthquake Predicting System.Journal of Shaanxi NormalUniversity(Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition)(inChinese),2008,37(5):19-23.
[14]延军平,闫军辉,白晶,等.基于可公度方法的陕西及邻近地区重大自然灾害发生趋势探讨.灾害学,2010,25(2):18-20.Yan J P,Yan J H,Bai J,et al.Discussion on trends of majornatural disasters in shaanxi province and its vicinities based oncommensurable method.Journal of Catastrophology(inChinese),2010,25(2):18-20.
[15]徐道一.大地震发生的网络性质——兼论有关地震预测的争论.地学前缘,2001,8(2):211-216.Xun D Y.The network features of large earthquakeoccurrenge and words on the debate of earthquake prediction.Earth Science Frontiers(in Chinese),2001,8(2):18-20.
[16]徐道一,王明太,耿庆国,等.翁文波院士的信息预测理论体系的创新性及其意义.地球物理学进展,2007,22(4):1375-1379.Xun D Y,Wang M T,Geng Q G,et al.The creativity ofinformative forecasting theory and it’s significance.Progressin Geophys(in Chinese),2007,22(4):1375-1379.
[17]孙文富,张颖,张国生.东北第五地震活跃期结束时间及最大地震强度预测.东北地震研究,2007,23(1):16-26.Sun W F,Zhang X,Zhang G S.Estimate on ending time of5th seismic active period northeast china and its maximalearthquake intensity.Seismological Research of NortheasternChina(in Chinese),2007,23(1):16-26.
[18]李宇彤,蒋长胜.东北第五活跃期中强震前的矩释放空间扫描特征研究.地震学报2010,32(6):680-694.Li Y T,Jiang C S.Spatial variation of seismic momentrelease before strong and intermediate strength earthquakesin the fifth seismic activity period of northeastern chinaregion.Acta Seismologica Sinica(in Chinese),2010,32(6):680-694.
[19]张国民,傅征祥,桂燮泰等.地震预报引论.科学出版社,2001.Zhang G M,Fu Z X,Gui K T.A General Introduction ofearthquake prediction.Science Press,2001.
[20]郭增建,秦保燕.地震迁移问题综述.国际地震动态,1983,1:8-10.Guo Z J,Qin B Y.Review of earthquake migration.RecentDevelopments In World Seismology(in Chinese),1983.
[21]郭安宁,郭增建.从震源模式讨论2008年汶川8级地震的回顾性预测.地震地质,2010,32(1):115-126.Guo A N,Guo Z J.A discussion on the retrospective of theMS8.0we chuan earthquake in 2008by means of earthquakesource models.Seismology And Geology(in Chinese),2010,32(1):115-124.
[22]郭安宁,陈家超.中国大震问题.地震出版社,2002.Guo A N,Chen J C.Problems of big earthquake in china.Seismological Press,2002.
[23]郭增建,秦保燕.地震成因与地震预报[M].地震出版社,1991.Guo Z J,Qing B Y.Earthquake cause and EarthquakePrediction[M].Seismological Press,1991.
[24]朱桂芝,石耀霖,陈石等.西太平洋板块向我国东北地区深部俯冲的数值模拟.地球物理学报,2009,52(4):950-957.Zhu G Z,Shi Y L,Chen S,et al.Numerical simulations ondeep subduction of western Pacific plate to NE China.Chinese J.Geophys(in Chinese),2009,52(4):950-957.
[25]滕吉文,张忠杰,杨顶辉,等.地震波传播理论与地震“孕育”、发生和发展的深部介质和构造环境.地球物理学进展,2009,24(1):1-19.Teng J W,Zhang Z J,Yang D H,et al.The seismic wavepropagation theory and the deep medium and tectonicenvironment of the earthquake“pregnancy”,generation anddevelopment.Progress in Geophys(in Chinese),2009,24(1):1-19.
[26]秦四清,徐锡伟,胡平,等.孕震断层的多锁固段脆性破裂机制与地震预测新方法的探索.地球物理学进展,2010,53(4):1001-1014.Qin S Q,Xu X W,Hu P,et al.Brittle failure mechanism ofmultiple locked patches in a sesmogenic fault and explorationon a new way for earthquake prediction.Progress in Geophys(in Chinese),2010,53(4):1001-1014.
[27]秦四清,薛雷,王媛媛,等.对孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论的进一步验证及有关科学问题的讨论孕.地球物理学进展,2010,25(4):749-758.Qin S Q,Xue L,Wang Y Y,et al.Further verifications onthe brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches along aseismogenic fault system and discussions on some scienceissues.Progress in Geophys(in Chinese),2010,25(4):749-758.
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