越洋海啸的数值模拟及其对我国的影响分析
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摘要
简要介绍了地震海啸产生的物理机制、海啸波在大洋中的传播特性以及海啸所具有的超强破坏力可能引发的巨大灾害;概述了全球地震海啸发生的频率和太平洋区域历史海啸的时空分布;整理分析了我国沿海发生海啸的频次和空间分布。针对越洋海啸传播的特点,采用基于波浪追逐原理和自适应网格加密技术的海啸数值模型对1960智利海啸进行了数值模拟,将模拟的结果与历史记录进行了对比,验证了模型的可靠性。通过对数值模拟结果的分析,初步讨论了我国沿海地区越洋海啸的危险性,并定量阐述了越洋海啸对我国各海区的影响。
In this paper,the physical mechanism how tsunami was trigered by submarine earthquake,the characteristic of tsunamis wave propagated in ocean and potential disaster caused by the super-destructive power of tsunamis were presented simply.The frequency of global tsunamis occurred and the temporal and spatial distribution of historical tsunamis in Pacific region were outlined.The frequency and spatial distribution of the tsunamis which occurred in China coasts were also systemized.According to trans-oceanic tsunami propagation mechanism,selecting a tsunami numerical model which was developed at the University of Washington.It is based on wave tracking theory and adaptive mesh refinement technology.Focus on simulating tsunami wave propagation characteristics around China's coastal areas,the simulation results fit well with the observational data.Based on the simulation results,the impact of Chile tsunami on China coasts was discussed quantitatively.The evaluation of potential risk along the China coasts was given.
In this paper,the physical mechanism how tsunami was trigered by submarine earthquake,the characteristic of tsunamis wave propagated in ocean and potential disaster caused by the super-destructive power of tsunamis were presented simply.The frequency of global tsunamis occurred and the temporal and spatial distribution of historical tsunamis in Pacific region were outlined.The frequency and spatial distribution of the tsunamis which occurred in China coasts were also systemized.According to trans-oceanic tsunami propagation mechanism,selecting a tsunami numerical model which was developed at the University of Washington.It is based on wave tracking theory and adaptive mesh refinement technology.Focus on simulating tsunami wave propagation characteristics around China's coastal areas,the simulation results fit well with the observational data.Based on the simulation results,the impact of Chile tsunami on China coasts was discussed quantitatively.The evaluation of potential risk along the China coasts was given.
引文
[1]于福江,叶琳,王喜年.1994年发生在台湾海峡的一次地震海啸的数值模拟[J].海洋学报,2001,23(6):32-39.
[2]UNESCO-IOC.Tsunami Glossary[J]//IOC information document No.1221.Paris,UNESCO,2006.
[3]温瑞智,任叶飞,周正华,等.越洋海啸的数值模拟[J].地震工程与工程振动,2008,28(4):28-34.
[4]包澄澜.海啸灾害及其预警系统[J].国际地震动态,2005,313(1):14-18.
[5]包澄澜,叶琳.海啸灾害与预警[J].海洋预报,2005,22(1):1-4.
[6]郭增建,陈鑫连.地震对策[M].北京:地震出版社,1986.
[7]王晓青,吕金霞,丁香.我国地震海啸危险性初步探讨[J].华南地震,2006,26(1):76-80.
[8]任叶飞.基于数值模拟的我国地震海啸危险性分析研究[D].哈尔滨:中国地震局工程力学研究所,2007.
[9]付庆军.越洋和局地海啸数值模拟的理论研究及其应用[D].天津:天津大学,2006.
[10]陈运泰,杨智娴,许力生.海啸、地震海啸和海啸地震[J].物理,2005,34(12):864-872.
[11]陈顒.海啸的物理[J].物理,2005,34(3):171-175.
[12]温燕玲,朱元清.海啸传播模型与数值模拟研究进展[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2007,28(5):144-149.
[13]姚远,蔡树群,王盛安.海啸波数值模拟的研究现状[J].海洋科学进展,2007,25(4):487-494.
[14]叶琳,于福江,吴玮.我国海啸灾害及预警现状与建议[J].海洋预报,2005,22(Supp.):147-157.
[15]叶琳,王喜年,包澄澜.中国的地震海啸及其预警服务[J].自然灾害学报,1994,3(1):100-103.
[16]国家海洋局.2009年中国海洋灾害公报[R].北京,2009.
[17]郭彩玲,王晓峰.中国东部海域发生海啸的可能性分析[J].自然灾害学报,2007,16(1):7-11.
[18]MANSINHA L,SMYLIE D E.The displacement fields of inclined faults[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1971,61(5):1433-1440.
[19]OKADA Y.Surface deformation due to shear and tensile faults in a half-space[J].Bulletin of the seismological Society of America,1985,75(1):1135-1154.
[20]ATWATER B F,CISTEMAS Marco V,BOURGEOIS Joanne,et al.Surviving a tsunami-lessons from Chile,Hawaii,and Japan[R].U.S.Geological Survey Circular 1187,1997.
[21]IMAMURA F,SHUTO N,GOTO C.Numerical simulations of the transoceanic propagation of tsunamis[C]//Proc.6thCongress Asianand Pacific Regional Division,IAHR,Japan,1988:265-272.
[22]KAZUAKI Takaoka,KAZUHIKO Ban,SHIGERU Yamaki.Possibility for transoceanic tsunami forecast by numerical simulation-ex-ample of 1960Chilean tsunami by numerical simulation[C]//ITS 2001Proceedings,Session7,Number 7-17,2001:849-859.
[23]包澄澜,等.海洋灾害及预报[M].北京:海洋出版社,1991:197-205.
[24]SATAKE K.(薛艳译)Tsunamis[J].世界地震译丛.2006,3:59-75.
[2]UNESCO-IOC.Tsunami Glossary[J]//IOC information document No.1221.Paris,UNESCO,2006.
[3]温瑞智,任叶飞,周正华,等.越洋海啸的数值模拟[J].地震工程与工程振动,2008,28(4):28-34.
[4]包澄澜.海啸灾害及其预警系统[J].国际地震动态,2005,313(1):14-18.
[5]包澄澜,叶琳.海啸灾害与预警[J].海洋预报,2005,22(1):1-4.
[6]郭增建,陈鑫连.地震对策[M].北京:地震出版社,1986.
[7]王晓青,吕金霞,丁香.我国地震海啸危险性初步探讨[J].华南地震,2006,26(1):76-80.
[8]任叶飞.基于数值模拟的我国地震海啸危险性分析研究[D].哈尔滨:中国地震局工程力学研究所,2007.
[9]付庆军.越洋和局地海啸数值模拟的理论研究及其应用[D].天津:天津大学,2006.
[10]陈运泰,杨智娴,许力生.海啸、地震海啸和海啸地震[J].物理,2005,34(12):864-872.
[11]陈顒.海啸的物理[J].物理,2005,34(3):171-175.
[12]温燕玲,朱元清.海啸传播模型与数值模拟研究进展[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2007,28(5):144-149.
[13]姚远,蔡树群,王盛安.海啸波数值模拟的研究现状[J].海洋科学进展,2007,25(4):487-494.
[14]叶琳,于福江,吴玮.我国海啸灾害及预警现状与建议[J].海洋预报,2005,22(Supp.):147-157.
[15]叶琳,王喜年,包澄澜.中国的地震海啸及其预警服务[J].自然灾害学报,1994,3(1):100-103.
[16]国家海洋局.2009年中国海洋灾害公报[R].北京,2009.
[17]郭彩玲,王晓峰.中国东部海域发生海啸的可能性分析[J].自然灾害学报,2007,16(1):7-11.
[18]MANSINHA L,SMYLIE D E.The displacement fields of inclined faults[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1971,61(5):1433-1440.
[19]OKADA Y.Surface deformation due to shear and tensile faults in a half-space[J].Bulletin of the seismological Society of America,1985,75(1):1135-1154.
[20]ATWATER B F,CISTEMAS Marco V,BOURGEOIS Joanne,et al.Surviving a tsunami-lessons from Chile,Hawaii,and Japan[R].U.S.Geological Survey Circular 1187,1997.
[21]IMAMURA F,SHUTO N,GOTO C.Numerical simulations of the transoceanic propagation of tsunamis[C]//Proc.6thCongress Asianand Pacific Regional Division,IAHR,Japan,1988:265-272.
[22]KAZUAKI Takaoka,KAZUHIKO Ban,SHIGERU Yamaki.Possibility for transoceanic tsunami forecast by numerical simulation-ex-ample of 1960Chilean tsunami by numerical simulation[C]//ITS 2001Proceedings,Session7,Number 7-17,2001:849-859.
[23]包澄澜,等.海洋灾害及预报[M].北京:海洋出版社,1991:197-205.
[24]SATAKE K.(薛艳译)Tsunamis[J].世界地震译丛.2006,3:59-75.
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