亚洲地区Benioff应变释放和强震活动的周期性特征研究
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摘要
为研究亚洲地区强震Benioff应变释放和周期性活动特征,本研究采用了1900—1999年的IASPEI百年目录和2000—2008年的全球CMT目录组成的混合目录,分别考察了亚洲地区1900—2008年MW6.9以上强震的Benioff应变释放时间演化、深浅源地震的累积Benioff应变线性偏离和MW8.0以上强震周期性活动的Rydelek-Sacks检验三方面内容。结果表明,Benioff应变释放整体上大致存在30年左右的强弱起伏;深、浅源地震的累积Benioff应变线性偏离具有不同的周期性活动,其中深源地震约为40年左右,浅源地震具有更长的活动周期;MW8.0以上强震的发生存在33±2年的周期性活动。作为结果的外推,亚洲地区未来10年的强震活动正处于以1990—2020年为活动周期的后三分之一阶段,应变释放水平相对2000—2010年较低,可能与1990—2000年的水平相当。
In this study,Benioff strain release and the cyclical characteristics of strong earthquake(MW>8.0)activities since 1900 in the Asian region are investigated based on the mixed catalogue of the Centennial Catalogue edited by Engdahl and Villasenor and the global CMT catalogue.Temporal Benioff strain release using earthquake with MW≥6.9,cumulative Benioff strain linear deviation using different source depths of earthquakes and periodic Rydelek-Sacks test for MW>8.0 earthquake activity are analyzed,respectively.The results show that there is an aproximate 30 years or less fluctuation of strength in the Benioff strain release;cumulative Benioff strain linear deviation has different cyclical activities,40 years for deep earthquakes and longer active for shallow earthquakes;and there is a 33±2 years of cyclical activity of MW>8.0 strong earthquakes.As a result of extrapolation,Asian region might be in a strong earthquake activity in the next 10 years,occurring in the third stage of the 1990 to 2020 cycle.The level of strain release will be lower than that from 2000 to 2010,and aproximately the same level with the period from 1990 to 2000.
In this study,Benioff strain release and the cyclical characteristics of strong earthquake(MW>8.0)activities since 1900 in the Asian region are investigated based on the mixed catalogue of the Centennial Catalogue edited by Engdahl and Villasenor and the global CMT catalogue.Temporal Benioff strain release using earthquake with MW≥6.9,cumulative Benioff strain linear deviation using different source depths of earthquakes and periodic Rydelek-Sacks test for MW>8.0 earthquake activity are analyzed,respectively.The results show that there is an aproximate 30 years or less fluctuation of strength in the Benioff strain release;cumulative Benioff strain linear deviation has different cyclical activities,40 years for deep earthquakes and longer active for shallow earthquakes;and there is a 33±2 years of cyclical activity of MW>8.0 strong earthquakes.As a result of extrapolation,Asian region might be in a strong earthquake activity in the next 10 years,occurring in the third stage of the 1990 to 2020 cycle.The level of strain release will be lower than that from 2000 to 2010,and aproximately the same level with the period from 1990 to 2000.
引文
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[2]Mogi K.Active periods in the world's chief seismic belts[J].Tectonophysics,1974,22:265-282.
[3]Romanowicz B.Spatiotemporal patterns in the energy release of great earthquakes[J].Science,1993,260:1923-1926.
[4]Bakun W H,McEvilly T V.Earthquakes near Parkfield,California:Comparing the1934and1966sequences[J].Science,1979,205:1375-1377.
[5]Bakun W H,McEvilly T V.Recurrence models and Parkfield,California,earthquakes[J].J Geo-phys Res,1984,89:3051-3058.
[6]Bakun W H,Lindh A G.The Parkfield,California,earthquake prediction experiment[J].Science,1985,229:619-624.
[7]Savage J C.The Parkfield prediction fallacy[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,1993,83:1-6.
[8]Kagan Y Y.Statistical aspects of Parkfield earthquake sequence and Parkfield prediction experiment[J].Tectonophysics,1997,270:207-219.
[9]马宗晋,傅征祥,张郢珍,等.1966—1976年中国九大地震[M].北京:地震出版社,1982.
[10]傅征祥,程燕.中国大陆近代幕式地震活动的某些特征[J].地震,1986,6(1):28-35.
[11]张国民.我国大陆强震活动的韵律性特征[J].地震地质,1987,9(3):27-37.
[12]张国民,耿鲁明,石耀霖.中国大陆强震轮回活动的计算机模型研究[J].中国地震,1993,9(1):20-32.
[13]傅征祥,刘杰,王晓青,等.中国大陆西部及邻区板内8级大地震活动过程和趋势预测初步研究[J].地学前缘,2003,(10):112-117.
[14]马宏生,邵志刚,周龙泉,等.中国大陆7级地震活动状态分析[J].地震,2008,28(3):8-13.
[15]Engdahl E R,Villase or A.Global Seismicity:1900—1999[A].In:International handbook of earthquake and engineering seismology[C].Lee,W.H.K.,Kanamori,H.,Jennings,P.C.and Kisslinger,C.,eds.,San Diego,Academic Press,Part A:2002,665-690.
[16]Kennett B L N,Engdahl E R,Buland R.Constraints on seismic velocities in the earth fromtravel times[J].Geophy J Int,1995,122:108-124.
[17]Dziewonski A M,Chou T A,Woodhouse J H.Determination of earthquake source parameters from waveformdata for studies of global and regional seismicity[J].J Geophys Res,1981,86:2825-2852.
[18]吴忠良,黄静,林碧苍.中国西部地震视应力的空间分布[J].地震学报,2002,24(3):293-301.
[19]Engdahl E R,van der Hilst R D,Buland R P.Global teleseismic earthquake relocation with im-proved travel times and procedures for depth determination[J].Bull SeismSoc Amer,1998,88(3):722-743.
[20]国家地震局地质研究所.亚欧地震构造图说明书[M].北京:地图出版社,1981.
[21]Bird P.An updated digital model of plate boundaries[J].Geochemistry Geophysics Geosystems,2003,4(3):1027,doi:10.1029/2001GC000252.
[22]Kanamori H.The energy release in great earthquake[J].J Geophys Res,1977,82:2981-2987.
[23]Hanks T C,Kanamori H.A moment magnitude scale[J].J Geophys Res,1979,84(B5):2348-2350.
[24]Mento DJ,Ervin C P,McGinnis L D.Periodic energy release in the New Madrid seismic zone[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,1986,76(4):1001-1009.
[25]Rydelek P A,Sacks I S.Testing the completeness of earthquake catalogues and the hypothesis of self-similarity[J].Nature,1989,337:251-253.
[26]吴忠良.鉴别地震活动周期性和随机性的广义Rydelek-Sacks检验[J].地震学报,2002,21(4):487-494.
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