滇西北强震活动特征及短期震兆研究
|
摘要
根据历史地震资料研究了滇西北强震活动韵律特征及最近10多年来6.0级以上强震前震中附近中小地震活动空间演化图像。对1986年以来滇西北5.0级以上中强震前该地区M≥3.0和M≥4.0地震的活跃和平静异常以及3级以上震群进行了清理和配套性研究,定量地给出了滇西北强震短期震兆指标。得到以下主要结果:滇西北6.0级以上强震前,在全省4.0级以上地震平静异常阶段或3.0级以上地震活跃阶段,震中附近3级地震比较活跃,并形成明显的条带、围空、密集等地震活动有序分布异常图像;滇西北6.0级以上地震短期异常综合预报量Y≥0.56。短期震兆模型可分为两种:①滇西北3.0级以上地震活跃异常和3～4级震群活动同时出现;②滇西北4级以上地震出现平静异常后又出现3.0级以上地震平静异常。
Based on the historical earthquake data,we study the rhythm of strong seismicity in Northwest Yunnan and get the medium-sized earthquake space evolution images in the neighboring region of epicenters before the M≥6.0 strong quakes occurred in Northwest Yunnan over the past decade. According to the M≥5.0 strong quakes since 1986,we study the activity and equability anomaly of the M≥3.0 or M≥4.0 earthquakes,and the M≥3.0 clusters. The index of short precursor of strong earthquake in northwest Yunnan is given quantitatively. The main results show:(1) before the M≥6.0 quakes occurred in Northwest Yunnan,the M≥4.0 were in equability and M≥3.0 were in activity,the MS3.0 quakes around the potential epicenter were in activity,so the abnormal images of orderly distribution of seismic activity were given including the obvious band,void and intensive areas; (2) the integrated forecasting index Y of the quakes above 6 in short term anomaly in Northwest Yunnan is equal to or greater than 0.5. There are two types of short term precursor model; type one,the anomaly of activity of earthquakes with M≥3.0 appear synchronously with the clusters of earthquakes with 3.0≥M≥4.0. Type two,in the process of the tranquility of the M≥4.0 earthquakes,there are intermittent tranquility of M≥3.0 earthquakes.
Based on the historical earthquake data,we study the rhythm of strong seismicity in Northwest Yunnan and get the medium-sized earthquake space evolution images in the neighboring region of epicenters before the M≥6.0 strong quakes occurred in Northwest Yunnan over the past decade. According to the M≥5.0 strong quakes since 1986,we study the activity and equability anomaly of the M≥3.0 or M≥4.0 earthquakes,and the M≥3.0 clusters. The index of short precursor of strong earthquake in northwest Yunnan is given quantitatively. The main results show:(1) before the M≥6.0 quakes occurred in Northwest Yunnan,the M≥4.0 were in equability and M≥3.0 were in activity,the MS3.0 quakes around the potential epicenter were in activity,so the abnormal images of orderly distribution of seismic activity were given including the obvious band,void and intensive areas; (2) the integrated forecasting index Y of the quakes above 6 in short term anomaly in Northwest Yunnan is equal to or greater than 0.5. There are two types of short term precursor model; type one,the anomaly of activity of earthquakes with M≥3.0 appear synchronously with the clusters of earthquakes with 3.0≥M≥4.0. Type two,in the process of the tranquility of the M≥4.0 earthquakes,there are intermittent tranquility of M≥3.0 earthquakes.
引文
陈章立,葛治洲,张国民,等.1998.大陆地震预报的方法和理论[M].地震出版社,16-21.
皇甫岗,秦嘉政.2006.云南地区大震活动规律研究[J].地震地质,28(1):37-47.
阚荣举,王绍晋,黄崐,等.1977.中国西南地区现代构造应力场与现代构造活动特征的探讨[J].地球物理学报,20(2):96-109.
刘翔,黄泰春,朱荣欢,等.2008.汶川8.0级地震与云南东部主要构造带强震关联性研究[J].地震研究,31(增刊):445-451.
刘翔,王绍晋,钱晓东,等.2006.2005年会泽5.3级地震与小江断裂地震活动关系研究[J].地震研究,29(4):332-337.
陆远忠,李胜乐,邓志辉,等.2002.基于GIS的地震分析预报系统[M].成都:成都地图出版社.
易桂喜,闻学泽,徐锡伟,等.2002.川滇地区若干活动断裂带整体的强地震复发特征研究[J].中国地震,18(3):267-276.
周传荣,刘翔,朱进,等.1987.微震活动条带分布特征[J].地震研究,10(3):247-257.
朱伯承.1981.统计天气预报[M].上海:上海科学技术出版社.
皇甫岗,秦嘉政.2006.云南地区大震活动规律研究[J].地震地质,28(1):37-47.
阚荣举,王绍晋,黄崐,等.1977.中国西南地区现代构造应力场与现代构造活动特征的探讨[J].地球物理学报,20(2):96-109.
刘翔,黄泰春,朱荣欢,等.2008.汶川8.0级地震与云南东部主要构造带强震关联性研究[J].地震研究,31(增刊):445-451.
刘翔,王绍晋,钱晓东,等.2006.2005年会泽5.3级地震与小江断裂地震活动关系研究[J].地震研究,29(4):332-337.
陆远忠,李胜乐,邓志辉,等.2002.基于GIS的地震分析预报系统[M].成都:成都地图出版社.
易桂喜,闻学泽,徐锡伟,等.2002.川滇地区若干活动断裂带整体的强地震复发特征研究[J].中国地震,18(3):267-276.
周传荣,刘翔,朱进,等.1987.微震活动条带分布特征[J].地震研究,10(3):247-257.
朱伯承.1981.统计天气预报[M].上海:上海科学技术出版社.
版权所有：© 2023 中国地质图书馆 中国地质调查局地学文献中心