江川井数字化气氡映震特征分析
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摘要
主要对江川井数字化气氡观测值自2004年11月稳定以来的动态特征进行分析,得出江川数字化气氡存在准周期为1 a的动态变化特征,包括相对平稳和高值振荡2种变化形态.在此基础上,对相对平稳期、高值振荡期分别采用原始曲线法和二阶平微求速度方法进行地震前兆异常特征提取,得出:当相对平稳期气氡日均值C(Rn)≥+2.0σ和高值振荡期气氡日均值二阶平微速度值C(Rn)≥+1.8σ,对震中距80 km范围内的4.0级和250 km左右范围内的5.0级以上地震有较好的短临预测预报实效.
This article main analysis the dynanic changes characteristics of Jiangchuan digital gas radon since 2004,abtain that the digital gas radon has a year cycle feature,includes two form of changes with the relatively stable and high value changes.On this basis,the original curve method was used in the relatively stable period and the second level of speed method was used in the high-value changes period to extract precursory anomaly feature,and obtained that when the day average gas radon value of relatively stale period C(Rn)≥+2.0 σ and the day average gas radon value of high value change C(Rn)≥+1.8 σ,there will be a better effects of short term forecast to more than 4.0 magnitude earthquake 80 km far from the epicenter and to more than 5.0 magnitude earthquake 250 km far from the epicenter.
This article main analysis the dynanic changes characteristics of Jiangchuan digital gas radon since 2004,abtain that the digital gas radon has a year cycle feature,includes two form of changes with the relatively stable and high value changes.On this basis,the original curve method was used in the relatively stable period and the second level of speed method was used in the high-value changes period to extract precursory anomaly feature,and obtained that when the day average gas radon value of relatively stale period C(Rn)≥+2.0 σ and the day average gas radon value of high value change C(Rn)≥+1.8 σ,there will be a better effects of short term forecast to more than 4.0 magnitude earthquake 80 km far from the epicenter and to more than 5.0 magnitude earthquake 250 km far from the epicenter.
引文
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[2]国家地震局科技监测司.地震地下流体观测技术[M].北京:地震出版社,1995.
[3]刘成龙,鱼金子,赵文忠,等.京津冀地区氡的数字化观测及其地震前兆监测效能评估[J].地震,2006(4):113-120.
[4]魏汝庆,赵杰锋,崔娜.聊古一井气氡动态特征分析[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2006,24(3):30-43.
[5]张昱,李英,李永强,等.甘肃及邻区数字化气氡观测及其地震前兆监测效能评估[J].地震研究,2008(3):228-232.
[6]陈华静,王基华,林元武,等.断层土壤气的观测与地震短临预报[J].地震,1999,19(1):87-88.
[7]曹喜,张占斌,张彩艳.嘉峪关断层气氡对祁连山西段中强地震的异常特征分析[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2008,29(1):50-53.
[8]付虹,王世芹,秦嘉政,等.2007年5—6月滇西南地区M≥5成组地震活动中、短临异常特征及预测[J].地震研究,2007(4):303-310.
[9]唐采,王永安,付虹.川滇地区强震前水氡和水汞短期综合异常特征研究[J].地震研究,2004,27(增刊):18-22.
[10]武建华,刑玉安,朱自强,等.数字化测逸出氡替代模拟测水氡的理论与实践[J].地震,2002,22(4):100-104.
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