城市供水管网抗震安全性模糊-随机模拟评价
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摘要
从地震地质条件、管网外部环境、管网内部因素、水质条件等多种角度建立城市供水管网抗震安全性综合风险评价指标体系。针对评价影响因素具有随机性、模糊性和数据资料不精确等多种不确定性,利用随机模拟方法模拟三角模糊数,把三角模糊数及其函数之间的运算简化为普通的实数之间的运算,从而建立城市供水管网抗震安全性模糊数随机模拟综合风险评价模型。研究表明,在评价结果一致的前提下以置信区间形式表示的综合风险评价结果比其他常规方法提供的信息更加丰富,充分反映了受多种不确定性因素综合影响的城市供水管网抗震安全性综合风险评价的客观实际情况,研究结果可为城市供水管网系统安全运行和升级改造提供决策依据。
The index system of comprehensive risk assessment for seismic performance of urban water distribution system was established from the following aspects as earthquake and engineering geology、external and internal factors of water supply network、water quality,and so on.According to many uncertainty factors such as randomness,fuzziness and the shortage and imprecision of datum information,Monte-Carlo method was presented to simulate triangular fuzzy numbers for transforming the operations of triangular fuzzy numbers and their functions into the conventional operations of real numbers,and then an aggregative risk assessment method using stochastic simulation and triangular fuzzy numbers for seismic performance of urban water distribution system was established.The application results showed that the assessment expressed by confidence intervals can provide more reliability information than that of common evaluation methods,and can also be applied to comprehensive risk assessment problems of different seismic performance of urban water distribution system affected by many uncertainty factors.
The index system of comprehensive risk assessment for seismic performance of urban water distribution system was established from the following aspects as earthquake and engineering geology、external and internal factors of water supply network、water quality,and so on.According to many uncertainty factors such as randomness,fuzziness and the shortage and imprecision of datum information,Monte-Carlo method was presented to simulate triangular fuzzy numbers for transforming the operations of triangular fuzzy numbers and their functions into the conventional operations of real numbers,and then an aggregative risk assessment method using stochastic simulation and triangular fuzzy numbers for seismic performance of urban water distribution system was established.The application results showed that the assessment expressed by confidence intervals can provide more reliability information than that of common evaluation methods,and can also be applied to comprehensive risk assessment problems of different seismic performance of urban water distribution system affected by many uncertainty factors.
引文
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[8]吕谋,王吉亮,张洪国.城市供水网络的综合安全评判方法及运用[J].水利学报,2009,40(12):1489-1494(Lu Mou,Wang Jiliang,Zhang Hongguo.Comprehensive safety assessment method for water supply network in urban area[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2009,40(12):1489-1494(in Chinese))
[2]王威,马东辉,苏经宇,等.不完备信息条件下地下管线震害预测的粗糙集方法[J].北京工业大学学报,2009,35(11):1499-1505(Wang Wei,Ma DongHui,Su Jingyu,et al.Rough set methodology for seismic damage prediction of underground pipelines system with incomplete information[J].Journal of Beijing University of Technology,2009,29(2):138-142(in Chinese))
[3]王威,马东辉,苏经宇,等.基于RS-SVM的地下管线震害预测方法研究[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2009,17(2):274-280(Wang Wei,Ma DongHui,Su Jingyu,et al.Study on predicting method for earthquake damage to underground pipelines system based on rough set and support vector machine[J].Journal of Basic Science and Engineering,2009,17(2):274-280(in Chinese))
[4]Allouche E N,Bowman A L.Holistic approach for assessing the vulnerability of buried pipelines to earthquake loads[J].Natural Hazards Review,2006,7(1):12-18
[5]Giachetti R E,Young R E.A parametric representation of fuzzy numbers and their arithmetic operators[J].Fuzzy Sets and Systems,1997,91(2):185-202
[6]金菊良,吴开亚,李如忠.水环境风险评价的随机模拟与三角模糊数耦合模型[J].水利学报,2008,39(11):1257-1266(Jin Juliang,Wu Kaiya,Li Ruzhong.Coupling method of stochastic simulation with triangular fuzzy numbers for water environment risk assessment[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2008,39(11):1257-1266(in Chinese))
[7]王吉亮,吕谋,邵迎旭.供水管网安全综合评价体系的建立与应用[J].中国给水排水,2010,26(5):51-54(Wang JiLiang,Lu Mou,Shao Yingxu.Building and application of comprehensive safety assessment system for water distribution system[J].China Water&Wastewater,2010,26(5):51-54(in Chinese))
[8]吕谋,王吉亮,张洪国.城市供水网络的综合安全评判方法及运用[J].水利学报,2009,40(12):1489-1494(Lu Mou,Wang Jiliang,Zhang Hongguo.Comprehensive safety assessment method for water supply network in urban area[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2009,40(12):1489-1494(in Chinese))
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