破裂时间法在云南小江断裂带强震预测中的应用
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摘要
使用云南区域台网记录的地震目录资料,采用破裂时间法模拟前兆地震序列能量加速释放过程,系统研究了能量加速释放模型参数估计方法及强震位置搜索技术,详细推导了预测模型基本公式,对小江断裂带上发生的19次主震事件进行了模拟,结果表明:强震前能量加速现象是一种普遍现象,主震前,与主震相差2.5个震级单位的前兆序列出现能量加速释放所占的比例为80%;由前兆序列模拟得到的预测时间和震级与实际值很接近,主震震级预测精度约为±0.5级,预测主震发生时间误差约为±0.5年;搜索半径和搜索时间与主震震级成线性正相关关系;采用主震位置搜索技术,对小江断裂带未来中期6～7级强震可能危险区进行了预测。
On the basis of earthquake catalog data recorded by Yunnan region network,using time-to-failure method,we simulated the process of Accelerating energy release of Precursory earthquake sequence.Systematic research of accelerating energy release of model parameter estimation method and strong earthquake location search technology.Derived the basic formula of prediction model.We simulated 19 times the main seismic events of Xiaojiang Fault Zone.The results show that the accelerating energy release before strong earthquakes is a universal phenomenon.Appears to accelerate the release of energy of precursor earthquake sequence of the difference between the main shock with 2.5 magnitude units as a proportion of 80%.Prediction time and magnitude which precursor sequence simulated with the actual value is very close to.The main earthquake magnitude prediction accuracy level of about ±0.5,time error of ±0.5 year.Search radius and the search time and the main earthquake magnitude is a linear positive correlation.Using the main shock location search technique to predict medium-term strong earthquake risk areas in Xiaojiang Fault Zone.
On the basis of earthquake catalog data recorded by Yunnan region network,using time-to-failure method,we simulated the process of Accelerating energy release of Precursory earthquake sequence.Systematic research of accelerating energy release of model parameter estimation method and strong earthquake location search technology.Derived the basic formula of prediction model.We simulated 19 times the main seismic events of Xiaojiang Fault Zone.The results show that the accelerating energy release before strong earthquakes is a universal phenomenon.Appears to accelerate the release of energy of precursor earthquake sequence of the difference between the main shock with 2.5 magnitude units as a proportion of 80%.Prediction time and magnitude which precursor sequence simulated with the actual value is very close to.The main earthquake magnitude prediction accuracy level of about ±0.5,time error of ±0.5 year.Search radius and the search time and the main earthquake magnitude is a linear positive correlation.Using the main shock location search technique to predict medium-term strong earthquake risk areas in Xiaojiang Fault Zone.
引文
蒋长胜,吴忠良,史勇军.2004.中强震前地震活动矩释放加速现象(AMR)的普遍性问题[J].中国地震,20(2):119-125.
焦远碧,丁鉴海.2000.中等地震活动增强作为强震标志的研究[J].地震,20(2):15-19.
钱晓东,刘祖荫.1999.森下空间播散指数及其在地震预报中的应用[J].地震研究,22(4):357-364.
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秦嘉政,钱晓东.2004.利用前兆事件对云南地区地震进行中短期预测[J].地震学报,26(2):140-150.
秦嘉政,钱晓东.2005.云南会泽、文山两次M5.3级地震[J].地震研究.28(4):403-407.
王丽凤,马丽,David Vere-Jones,等.2004.随机AMR模型的参数估计及其在几次强震中的应用[J].地震学报,26(2):162-173.
杨文政,David Vere-Jones,马丽,等.2000.一个关于临界地震的临界区域判别的方法[J].地震,20(4):28-38.
杨文政,马丽.1999.地震活动加速模型及其在中国的应用[J].地震学报,21(1):32-41.
余怀忠,尹祥础,夏蒙棼,等.2004.地震临界点理论的实验研究[J].地震学报,26(增刊):122-130.
中国地震局.1998.地震序列的类型判别和震后趋势估计[A]//地震现场工作大纲和技术指南[M].北京:地震出版社:25-26.
B o wman D D,G Ouillon C G.Sammis,et al.1998.An observational test ofthe critical earthquake concept[J].J Geophys Rse,103:24395-24372.
B re hm D J,Braile L W.1998.Application of the time-to-fsilure methodfor intermediate-term prediction in the New Madrid Seismic Zone[J].Bull Seism Soc Am,88:564-580.
B re hm D J,Braile L W.1999.Intermediate-term earthquake prediction u-sing the modified time-to failure in Southern California[J].BullSeism Soc Am,89(1):275-293.
B u fe C G,Varnes D J.1993.Predictive modeling of the seismic cycle ofthe Greater Francisco Bay Region[J].J Geophys Res,98(B6):9871-9883.
K a namori H.1977.The energy release in great earthquakes[J].J Geo-phys Res,82(2):981-2978.
D a s S,Schools C H.1981.Theory of time-dependent rupture in the earth[J].J Geophys Res,86(B7):6039-6051.
S yk es L R,Jaume S C.1990.Seismic activity on neighboring faults as along-termprecursor to large earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay ar-ea[J].Nature,348:595-599.
V a rnes D J.1989.Predicting earthquake by analyzing accelerating precur-sory seismic activity[J].Pure and Appl Geophys,130(4):661-686.
焦远碧,丁鉴海.2000.中等地震活动增强作为强震标志的研究[J].地震,20(2):15-19.
钱晓东,刘祖荫.1999.森下空间播散指数及其在地震预报中的应用[J].地震研究,22(4):357-364.
钱晓东,秦嘉政.2006.环境应力参数在2004年云南双柏5.0地震短期预报中的应用[J].中国地震,22(2):161-171.
秦嘉政,钱晓东.2004.利用前兆事件对云南地区地震进行中短期预测[J].地震学报,26(2):140-150.
秦嘉政,钱晓东.2005.云南会泽、文山两次M5.3级地震[J].地震研究.28(4):403-407.
王丽凤,马丽,David Vere-Jones,等.2004.随机AMR模型的参数估计及其在几次强震中的应用[J].地震学报,26(2):162-173.
杨文政,David Vere-Jones,马丽,等.2000.一个关于临界地震的临界区域判别的方法[J].地震,20(4):28-38.
杨文政,马丽.1999.地震活动加速模型及其在中国的应用[J].地震学报,21(1):32-41.
余怀忠,尹祥础,夏蒙棼,等.2004.地震临界点理论的实验研究[J].地震学报,26(增刊):122-130.
中国地震局.1998.地震序列的类型判别和震后趋势估计[A]//地震现场工作大纲和技术指南[M].北京:地震出版社:25-26.
B o wman D D,G Ouillon C G.Sammis,et al.1998.An observational test ofthe critical earthquake concept[J].J Geophys Rse,103:24395-24372.
B re hm D J,Braile L W.1998.Application of the time-to-fsilure methodfor intermediate-term prediction in the New Madrid Seismic Zone[J].Bull Seism Soc Am,88:564-580.
B re hm D J,Braile L W.1999.Intermediate-term earthquake prediction u-sing the modified time-to failure in Southern California[J].BullSeism Soc Am,89(1):275-293.
B u fe C G,Varnes D J.1993.Predictive modeling of the seismic cycle ofthe Greater Francisco Bay Region[J].J Geophys Res,98(B6):9871-9883.
K a namori H.1977.The energy release in great earthquakes[J].J Geo-phys Res,82(2):981-2978.
D a s S,Schools C H.1981.Theory of time-dependent rupture in the earth[J].J Geophys Res,86(B7):6039-6051.
S yk es L R,Jaume S C.1990.Seismic activity on neighboring faults as along-termprecursor to large earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay ar-ea[J].Nature,348:595-599.
V a rnes D J.1989.Predicting earthquake by analyzing accelerating precur-sory seismic activity[J].Pure and Appl Geophys,130(4):661-686.
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