兴都库什—帕米尔—新疆中南部地区PI算法的回溯性研究
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摘要
为考察基于地震统计物理的图像信息学PI算法是否适用于兴都库什、帕米尔和新疆中南部地区的强震预测,并考察地震活动特征,将兴都库什—帕米尔—新疆中南部地区作为一个研究区整体,对该地区1995~2009年的MS6.5以上强震进行了回溯性预测研究。设定截止震级Mc为完整性震级MW4.9,空间网格间距为0.4°×0.4,°时间滑动步长为120天,选取10年尺度的"异常学习时间窗"和3年尺度的"预测时间窗",分别对5个时间段进行计算。利用ROC图表法作为统计检验工具,使用R I算法作为预测结果参照的"零假设"。计算结果表明,PI算法远优于随机预测,可适用于该地区MS6.5以上强震的预测,但PI与RI算法的预测效果差距不大。这一方面说明该地区强震活动可能具有丛集性特征,另一方面,背景地震活动的非平稳性可能是造成PI算法与RI算法效果接近的原因。
If pattern informatics(PI) algorithm can be used on strong earthquakes forecast in Xindu Kush,Pamir and middle and southern region of Xinjiang,according to the seismic activity characteristics,this paper applied pattern informatics algorithm to the earthquakes with MS≥6.5 from 1995 to 2009 in Xindu Kush-Pamir-middle and southern region of Xinjiang.During computing,the cut-off magnitude is MW4.9,spatial grid is 0.4°×0.4°,temporal slip step is 120 days,abnormal study time window is 10 years,forecast temporal windows is 3 years,this paper computed five temporal segments.Used the ROC algorithm to test the result,the RI algorithm regard as reference of forecast result.The result show,pattern information algorithm is good than random forecast,it can be used to forecast strong earthquakes with MS≥6.5,the forecast effect is similar between PI algorithm and RI algorithm.One sides,the characteristics of strong earthquakes occurred in this region is crowd together,another sides,the instability of background seismic activity may be the reason.
If pattern informatics(PI) algorithm can be used on strong earthquakes forecast in Xindu Kush,Pamir and middle and southern region of Xinjiang,according to the seismic activity characteristics,this paper applied pattern informatics algorithm to the earthquakes with MS≥6.5 from 1995 to 2009 in Xindu Kush-Pamir-middle and southern region of Xinjiang.During computing,the cut-off magnitude is MW4.9,spatial grid is 0.4°×0.4°,temporal slip step is 120 days,abnormal study time window is 10 years,forecast temporal windows is 3 years,this paper computed five temporal segments.Used the ROC algorithm to test the result,the RI algorithm regard as reference of forecast result.The result show,pattern information algorithm is good than random forecast,it can be used to forecast strong earthquakes with MS≥6.5,the forecast effect is similar between PI algorithm and RI algorithm.One sides,the characteristics of strong earthquakes occurred in this region is crowd together,another sides,the instability of background seismic activity may be the reason.
引文
[1]Rundle J B,Klein W,Turcotte D L,et al.Precursory seismic activation and critical-point phenomena[J].Pure Appl.Geophys.,2000,157:2 165-2 182.
[2]Rundle J B,Turcotte D L,Shcherbakov R,et al.Statistical physics approach to understanding the multiscale dynamics of earth-quake fault systems[J].Rev.Geophys.,2003,41:1 019.
[3]Tiampo K F,Rundle J B,McGinnis S,et al.Mean-field threshold systems and phase dynamics:An application to earthquakefault systems[J].Europhys.Lett.,2002,60:481-487.
[4]蒋长胜,吴忠良,马宏生,等.由PI算法给出的川滇—安达曼—苏门答腊地区强震危险性[J].地震学报,2009,31(2):189-200.
[5]Holliday J R,Rundle J B,Tiampo K F,et al.Modification of the pattern informatics method for forecasting large earthquake e-vents using complex eigenfactors[J].Tectonophysics,2006,413:87-91.
[6]Chen C C,Rundle J B,Holliday J R,et al.The 1999 Chi-Chi,Taiwan,earthquake as a typical example of seismic activationand quiescence[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,2005,32:2 315-2 319.
[7]蒋长胜,吴忠良.对地震预测的一个统计物理算法在川滇地区的回溯性预测检验[J].中国科学(D),2008,38(7):852-861.
[8]刘百篪.中国大陆地震的应力调整场动态模型[J].地震地质,1979,1(3):24-36.
[9]李茂玮.帕米尔—西昆仑地震带强震活动的规律性特征[J].内陆地震,1994,8(2):134-140.
[10]苏乃秦.新疆伽师及帕米尔东北侧地区强震活动的相关性分析[J].内陆地震,1999,13(2):105-111.
[11]高国英,王海涛,温和平,等.帕米尔东北侧中强震前应力场动态变化特征分析[J].西北地震学报,2001,23(4):389-394.
[12]张家声,单新建,李建华,等.帕米尔地区现今大陆深俯冲——地震构造和动力学解释[J].岩石学报,2005,21(4):1 215-1 227.
[13]Johnston A C.Seismic moment assessment of earthquakes in stable continental regions-I[J].Instrumental Seismicity,Geo-phys.J.Int.,1996,124:381-414.
[14]Kanamori H.The energy release in great earthquake[J].J.Geophys.Res.,1977,82:2 981-2 987.
[15]Gutenberg B,Richter C F.Magnitude and energy of earthquake[J].Annali di Geofisica,1956,9:1-15.
[16]Hanks TC,Kanamori H.A moment magnitude scale[J].J.Geophys.Res.,1979,84(B5):2 348-2 350.
[17]Wiemer,S.Wyss M.Minimummagnitude of complete reporting in earthquake catalogs:examples fromAlaska,the Western U-nited States,and Japan[J].Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,2000,90:859-869.
[18]Swets J A.The relative operating characteristic in psychology[J].Science,1973,182:990-1 000.
[19]Molchan G M.Earthquake prediction as a decision-making problem[J].Pure Appl.Geophys.,1997,149:233-247.
[20]Shcherbakov R,Holliday J R,Turcotte D L,et al.The relative intensity(RI)method for forecasting earthquakes applied toworldwide seismicity[J].Geophys.Res.Abs.,2007,9:3 130-3 031.
[21]史勇军,吴忠良,白玲,等.位于预测区边界附近的地震统计检验问题[J].中国地震,2003,19(4):351-357.
[22]石耀霖,刘杰,张国民.对我国90年代年度地震预报的评估[J].中国科学院研究生院学报,2000,17(1):63-69.
①Nanjo K Z.Earthquake forecast models based on the RI algorithm for Italy.Annals of Geophysics,in press.
[2]Rundle J B,Turcotte D L,Shcherbakov R,et al.Statistical physics approach to understanding the multiscale dynamics of earth-quake fault systems[J].Rev.Geophys.,2003,41:1 019.
[3]Tiampo K F,Rundle J B,McGinnis S,et al.Mean-field threshold systems and phase dynamics:An application to earthquakefault systems[J].Europhys.Lett.,2002,60:481-487.
[4]蒋长胜,吴忠良,马宏生,等.由PI算法给出的川滇—安达曼—苏门答腊地区强震危险性[J].地震学报,2009,31(2):189-200.
[5]Holliday J R,Rundle J B,Tiampo K F,et al.Modification of the pattern informatics method for forecasting large earthquake e-vents using complex eigenfactors[J].Tectonophysics,2006,413:87-91.
[6]Chen C C,Rundle J B,Holliday J R,et al.The 1999 Chi-Chi,Taiwan,earthquake as a typical example of seismic activationand quiescence[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,2005,32:2 315-2 319.
[7]蒋长胜,吴忠良.对地震预测的一个统计物理算法在川滇地区的回溯性预测检验[J].中国科学(D),2008,38(7):852-861.
[8]刘百篪.中国大陆地震的应力调整场动态模型[J].地震地质,1979,1(3):24-36.
[9]李茂玮.帕米尔—西昆仑地震带强震活动的规律性特征[J].内陆地震,1994,8(2):134-140.
[10]苏乃秦.新疆伽师及帕米尔东北侧地区强震活动的相关性分析[J].内陆地震,1999,13(2):105-111.
[11]高国英,王海涛,温和平,等.帕米尔东北侧中强震前应力场动态变化特征分析[J].西北地震学报,2001,23(4):389-394.
[12]张家声,单新建,李建华,等.帕米尔地区现今大陆深俯冲——地震构造和动力学解释[J].岩石学报,2005,21(4):1 215-1 227.
[13]Johnston A C.Seismic moment assessment of earthquakes in stable continental regions-I[J].Instrumental Seismicity,Geo-phys.J.Int.,1996,124:381-414.
[14]Kanamori H.The energy release in great earthquake[J].J.Geophys.Res.,1977,82:2 981-2 987.
[15]Gutenberg B,Richter C F.Magnitude and energy of earthquake[J].Annali di Geofisica,1956,9:1-15.
[16]Hanks TC,Kanamori H.A moment magnitude scale[J].J.Geophys.Res.,1979,84(B5):2 348-2 350.
[17]Wiemer,S.Wyss M.Minimummagnitude of complete reporting in earthquake catalogs:examples fromAlaska,the Western U-nited States,and Japan[J].Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,2000,90:859-869.
[18]Swets J A.The relative operating characteristic in psychology[J].Science,1973,182:990-1 000.
[19]Molchan G M.Earthquake prediction as a decision-making problem[J].Pure Appl.Geophys.,1997,149:233-247.
[20]Shcherbakov R,Holliday J R,Turcotte D L,et al.The relative intensity(RI)method for forecasting earthquakes applied toworldwide seismicity[J].Geophys.Res.Abs.,2007,9:3 130-3 031.
[21]史勇军,吴忠良,白玲,等.位于预测区边界附近的地震统计检验问题[J].中国地震,2003,19(4):351-357.
[22]石耀霖,刘杰,张国民.对我国90年代年度地震预报的评估[J].中国科学院研究生院学报,2000,17(1):63-69.
①Nanjo K Z.Earthquake forecast models based on the RI algorithm for Italy.Annals of Geophysics,in press.
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