太原盆地地震潜势分析
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摘要
将太原盆地划分为4个区段,利用近年来在各区段取得的古地震数据,通过实时概率模型,对每个区段分别进行强震潜势的定量评估。得出太原-文水区与太谷区未来50年内发生7级以上强震的概率分别为7.1%和15%,100年内为13.9%与27.8%,而介休-平遥区与汾阳区发生7级以上强震的可能性极小。
The Taiyuan basin is divided into four sections: the Taiyuan-Wenshui area and the Fenyang area,the Taigu area and the Jiexiu-Pingyao area.The paleoearthquake data obtained in recent years in Taiyuan basin is analysed,with real-time probability model,the quantitative assessment of earthquake potential is carried out for above each section.The probability of earthquake occurrence in the Taiyuan-Wenshui area,the Taigu area in the next 50 years are 7.1%,15%,in the next 100 years are 13.9%,27.8%,while the Fenyang and the Taigu areas have very low possibility of earthquake larger than magnitude 7.
The Taiyuan basin is divided into four sections: the Taiyuan-Wenshui area and the Fenyang area,the Taigu area and the Jiexiu-Pingyao area.The paleoearthquake data obtained in recent years in Taiyuan basin is analysed,with real-time probability model,the quantitative assessment of earthquake potential is carried out for above each section.The probability of earthquake occurrence in the Taiyuan-Wenshui area,the Taigu area in the next 50 years are 7.1%,15%,in the next 100 years are 13.9%,27.8%,while the Fenyang and the Taigu areas have very low possibility of earthquake larger than magnitude 7.
引文
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2徐锡伟,等.山西地堑系强震的活动规律和危险区段的研究[J].地震地质,1992,14(4):305-316.(Xu Xiwei,etal.Study on strong earthquake activity and risk areas in theShanxi graben system[J].Seismology and Geology,1992,14(4):305-316)
3易桂喜,闻学泽,徐锡伟.山西断陷带太原-临汾部分的强震平均复发间隔与未来危险段落研究[J].地震学报,2004,26(4):387-395.(Yi Guixi,Wen Xueze and Xu Xi-wei.Average recurrence intervals of strong earthquakes andpotential risky segments along the Taiyuan-Linfen portion ofthe Shanxi graben system[J].Acta Seismological Sinica,2004,26(4):387-395)
4刘静,汪良谋.运用活断层资料评价汾渭地震带中长期强震危险性[J].地震学报,1996,18(4):427-436.(LiuJing and Wang Liangmou.Using active fault data to evaluatelong-term earthquake risk in Fenwei earthquake zone[J].Acta Seismological Sinica,1996,18(4):427-436)
5江娃利,聂宗笙,张康富.山西交城断裂错断全新世洪积扇[J].地震地质,1992,14(3):534.(Jiang Wali,NieZongsheng and Zhang Kangfu.The dislocated Holocene allu-vial-diluvial fans related to the activity of the Jiaocheng faultin Shanxi province[J].Seismology and Geology,1992,14(3):534)
6江娃利,等.山西断陷系交城断裂全新世古地震活动初步研究[J].地震研究,2004,27(2):184-190.(Jiang Wali,et al.Preliminary study on activity of Holocene paleoearth-quakes along the Jiaocheng fault in the Shanxi downfaultedsystem[J].Journal of Seismological Research,2004,27(2):184-190)
7谢新生,等.山西太谷断裂带全新世活动及其与1303年洪洞8级地震的关系[J].地震学报,2004,26(3):281-293.(Xie Xinsheng,et al.Holocene activities of the Taigufault zone,Shanxi province,in relation to the 1303 HoloceneM=8 earthquake[J].Acta Seismological Sinica,2004,26(3):281-293)
8谢新生,等.山西交城断裂带西张探槽全新世古地震研究[J].地震地质,2007,29(4):744-755.(Xie Xinsheng,etal.Study on Holocene paleoearthquake in Xizhang trench onthe Jiaocheng fault zone,Shanxi province[J].Seismology andGeology,2007,29(4):744-755)
9王乃樑,等.山西地堑系新生代沉积与构造地貌[M].北京:科学出版社,1996.(Wang Nailiang,et al.Cenozoic de-posits and tectonic geomorphology of Shanxi graben[M].Beijing:Science Press,1996)
10谢新生,等.山西交城断裂带多个大探槽全新世古地震活动对比研究[J].地震地质,2008,30(2):412-430.(Xie Xinsheng,et al.Comparative study on Holocene pale-oseismic activities among multi-trenches along the Jiaochengfault zone,Shanxi[J].Seismology and Geology,2008,30(2):412-430)
11闻学泽.活动断裂地震潜势的定量评估[M].北京:地震出版社,1995.(Wen Xueze.Quantitative estimates of seis-mic potential on active faults[M].Beijing:SeismologicalPress,1995)
12 Nishenko and Buland.A generic recurrence interval distri-bution for earthquake forecasting[J].Bulletin of the Seis-mological Society of America,1987,77(4):1 382-1 399.
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