新20号井水位异常特征分析
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摘要
运用m apsis软件前兆异常分析中的差分、从属函数和变差对新20号井水位进行异常识别,结果认为:(1)差分、从属函数和变差异常形态均为高值异常;(2)差分和变差对近场MS≥5地震漏报率较高,但有异常出现时,后续往往有地震对应,而从属函数对近场MS≥5映震率为66.7%,对远场MS≥7映震率为71.4%;(3)差分最大异常量与震级基本成正比,而与震中距基本上成反比。从属函数最大异常量与震级关系不明显,而与震中距基本上成反比。变差的震例较少,暂不分析。
Using difference,subordinate function and variogram methods in Mapseis soft to analyze the anomaly of water level in New No.20 well,the result shows,(1) the abnormal configuration is high value anomaly;(2) the missed event ratio of difference and variogram is high for the MS≥5 earthquakes in the near region;once the abnormities appear,there will be corresponding earthquakes occurring;the reflection ratio is 66.7% for the subordinate function in the near region and 71.4% for the MS≥7 in the far region;(3)it is positive relation between maximum abnormal range and magnitude for difference,but it is reverse relation between maximum abnormal range and epicenter distance for difference;though there is inconspicuous relation between maximum abnormal range and magnitude for subordinate function,it is reverse relation between maximum abnormal range and epicenter distance;the earthquake cases is less for variogram,so it is not analyzed in this paper.
Using difference,subordinate function and variogram methods in Mapseis soft to analyze the anomaly of water level in New No.20 well,the result shows,(1) the abnormal configuration is high value anomaly;(2) the missed event ratio of difference and variogram is high for the MS≥5 earthquakes in the near region;once the abnormities appear,there will be corresponding earthquakes occurring;the reflection ratio is 66.7% for the subordinate function in the near region and 71.4% for the MS≥7 in the far region;(3)it is positive relation between maximum abnormal range and magnitude for difference,but it is reverse relation between maximum abnormal range and epicenter distance for difference;though there is inconspicuous relation between maximum abnormal range and magnitude for subordinate function,it is reverse relation between maximum abnormal range and epicenter distance;the earthquake cases is less for variogram,so it is not analyzed in this paper.
引文
[1]张淑亮,范雪芳,何申红.山西及邻区地下水中短期异常识别标志及预报方法研究[J].山西地震,2002,30(1):23-28.
[2]国家地震局预测预防司.地下流体地震预报方法[M].北京:地震出版社,1997,151-154.
[3]范雪芳,张淑亮,王吉易.地下流体中期和中短期前兆异常的四种判定方法[J].地震,2002,22(4):136-139.
[4]陈玲.新20号井井水位动态分析及地震预测效能评价[J].内陆地震,2003,17(2):150-156.
[5]任晓霞,任佳,闫熠,等.赤城台水位异常与地震关系的研究[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2002,25(6):91-96.
[6]叶秀薇.粤闽地区地下流体从属函数异常与地震关系的初步研究[J].防灾减灾工程学报,2004,24(2):196-201.
[7]张素欣,郑云贞,张子广.河北阳原2井水氡资料分析[J].山西地震,2003,31(1):18-20.
[2]国家地震局预测预防司.地下流体地震预报方法[M].北京:地震出版社,1997,151-154.
[3]范雪芳,张淑亮,王吉易.地下流体中期和中短期前兆异常的四种判定方法[J].地震,2002,22(4):136-139.
[4]陈玲.新20号井井水位动态分析及地震预测效能评价[J].内陆地震,2003,17(2):150-156.
[5]任晓霞,任佳,闫熠,等.赤城台水位异常与地震关系的研究[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2002,25(6):91-96.
[6]叶秀薇.粤闽地区地下流体从属函数异常与地震关系的初步研究[J].防灾减灾工程学报,2004,24(2):196-201.
[7]张素欣,郑云贞,张子广.河北阳原2井水氡资料分析[J].山西地震,2003,31(1):18-20.
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