全球及中国大陆周边强震活动状态研究
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摘要
本文应用中国地震台网给出的全球大震目录,结合前人的研究,分析了1900年以来全球MS≥8.0巨大地震活动的时间变化与MS≥7.8大地震的空间迁移特征,同时还探讨了包含中国大陆西部及其周边的"大三角"地区MS≥7.8地震的发展态势。20世纪全球百年的大震活动表现为20世纪前半叶活动强而后半叶活动弱的前高后低的活动特点,而进入21世纪以来有增强活动显示,呈现百年左右起伏的长期变化。在这百年尺度的起伏之中还含有20年左右的韵律变化,主要显示为地中海—喜马拉雅地震带巨大地震的平静—活跃交替活动特征。根据大震活动的起伏特征和地中海—喜马拉雅地震带幕式活动特性,进入21世纪以来,地中海—喜马拉雅带巨震频繁发生,显示其地震活动显著增强的高活动态势。通过计算中国大陆西部及周边地区的不同震级地震的变异系数Cv发现,7.0级以上强震与7.8级以上大地震活动类型不同;采用对数正态分布对MS≥7.8地震活动进程进行拟合分析发现,到2015年的累积发震概率达0.80,到2020年的累积发震概率达0.89,表明与中国大陆关系紧密的"大三角区"已进入大地震活跃时段。
Using the global large earthquake catalog of China Earthquake Network,we analyzed the temporal characteristics of great earthquakes(MS≥8.0) and the spatial distribution of large earthquakes(MS≥7.8).And the tendency of large earthquakes(MS≥7.8) in Western China continent and its surroundings was also discussed.It seems that the temporal characteristics of great earthquakes(MS≥8.0) on the earth has period of a hundred years,and the seismicity is higher in the former 50 years and lower in the latter 50 years and it comes to high in the new century.And there is rhythm activity of 20 years in the hundred years period,reflected mainly in the large earthquake cyclic process of activity and quiescence alternatively in Med-Himalayan seismic zones.Since the new century,large earthquakes in Med-Himalayan seismic zones occurred frequently,showing a high activity trend based on the characteristics of great earthquakes cyclic process of the globe.By calculating the variance-coefficient of different magnitude in Western China continent and its surroundings,we found that seismic process with different magnitude has different activity type.By using the log normal cumulative distribution function fitting the seismic processes with different magnitude,we found that the probabilities of great earthquake(MS≥7.8) in Western China continent and its surroundings by 2015 will be 0.80 and will be 0.89 by 2015,which means large earthquakes in the triangular region would occur frequently.
Using the global large earthquake catalog of China Earthquake Network,we analyzed the temporal characteristics of great earthquakes(MS≥8.0) and the spatial distribution of large earthquakes(MS≥7.8).And the tendency of large earthquakes(MS≥7.8) in Western China continent and its surroundings was also discussed.It seems that the temporal characteristics of great earthquakes(MS≥8.0) on the earth has period of a hundred years,and the seismicity is higher in the former 50 years and lower in the latter 50 years and it comes to high in the new century.And there is rhythm activity of 20 years in the hundred years period,reflected mainly in the large earthquake cyclic process of activity and quiescence alternatively in Med-Himalayan seismic zones.Since the new century,large earthquakes in Med-Himalayan seismic zones occurred frequently,showing a high activity trend based on the characteristics of great earthquakes cyclic process of the globe.By calculating the variance-coefficient of different magnitude in Western China continent and its surroundings,we found that seismic process with different magnitude has different activity type.By using the log normal cumulative distribution function fitting the seismic processes with different magnitude,we found that the probabilities of great earthquake(MS≥7.8) in Western China continent and its surroundings by 2015 will be 0.80 and will be 0.89 by 2015,which means large earthquakes in the triangular region would occur frequently.
引文
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[16]傅征祥,刘杰,王晓青,等.中国大陆西部及邻区板内8级大地震活动过程和趋势预测初步研究[J].地学前缘,2003,10(特刊):112-117.
[17]Kagan Y Y,Jackson D D.Long-termearthquake clusteting[J].Geophy J Int,1991,104:117-133.
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[20]时振梁,汪良谋,傅征祥,等.中国大陆中长期强震危险性预测方法研究[M].北京:海洋出版社,1997.
[21]梅世蓉.中国的地震活动性[J].地球物理学报,1960,9(1):1-19.
[22]李钦祖,于新昌.华北地区大地震的成组活动特征[J].地震科学研究,1980,(1):1-9.
[2]张国民,耿鲁明,张永仙,等.构造块体成组孕震模型和前兆场某些特征分析[J].地震学报,1995,17(1):1-10.
[3]张国民,李丽.强震成组孕育、成组发生过程中相互间影响的研究[J].地震,1997,17(3):221-231.
[4]范洪顺.1900年以来全球地震活动的初步分析[J].国际地震动态,2001,(02):12-17.
[5]李勇.1900—1980年全球6级以上地震的频度和能量[J].自然灾害学报,2003,12(2):7-12.
[6]Mogi K.Active periods in the world's chief seismic belts[J].Tectonophysics,1974,22:265-282.
[7]于泳,洪汉净,刘培洵,等.全球大地震时空分布与动力学机制的初步研究[J].地学前缘,2003,10(特刊):5-10.
[8]马宗晋,杜品仁,任金卫,等.低纬度环球剪切带及其与环太平洋带大地震的幕式活动[J].中国科学(D辑),2006,36(4):326-331.
[9]马宗晋,傅征祥,张逞珍,等.1966—1976年中国九大地震[M].北京:地震出版社,1982.
[10]张国民.中国大陆强震成组活动的韵律性特征[J].地震地质,1987,9(2):27-37.
[11]张文佑.断块构造导论[M].北京:石油工业出版社,1984.
[12]马杏垣.中国岩石圈动力学图集[M].北京:地图出版社,1989.
[13]丁国瑜.活动亚板块、构造块体相对运动[A].丁国瑜.中国岩石圈动力学概论[C].北京:地震出版社,1991.142-153.
[14]张培震,邓起东,张国民,等.中国大陆的强震活动与活动地块[J].中国科学(D辑),2003,33(增刊):12-20.
[15]马宗晋,江良谋,李存悌.中国及邻区特大地震地质与地球物理环境和危险区划分[A].中国地震局.中国大陆2005年前强震危险区预测研究[C].北京:地震出版社,1997.172-182.
[16]傅征祥,刘杰,王晓青,等.中国大陆西部及邻区板内8级大地震活动过程和趋势预测初步研究[J].地学前缘,2003,10(特刊):112-117.
[17]Kagan Y Y,Jackson D D.Long-termearthquake clusteting[J].Geophy J Int,1991,104:117-133.
[18]Patle J K,Kapadia C H,Owen D B.Handbook of statistical distributions[M].New York,MarcelDekker,1976.
[19]Abai mov S G,Turcotte D L,Rundle J B.Recurrenc-ti me and frequency-slip statistics of slip eventson the creeping section of the San Andreas fault in central California[J].Geophys J Int,2007,170:1289-1299.
[20]时振梁,汪良谋,傅征祥,等.中国大陆中长期强震危险性预测方法研究[M].北京:海洋出版社,1997.
[21]梅世蓉.中国的地震活动性[J].地球物理学报,1960,9(1):1-19.
[22]李钦祖,于新昌.华北地区大地震的成组活动特征[J].地震科学研究,1980,(1):1-9.
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