跨断层形变的慢时变结构分析与异常识别初探
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摘要
将自适应控制理论引入跨断层流动形变分析。利用甘肃及与宁夏、青海交界的监测区内石灰窑口、红柳峡、窝子滩、扁都口、南营5个场地典型观测曲线,构建慢时变前兆系统结构,研究其与6级左右及6级以上地震孕育-发生过程的可能关系。可显示震前中短期阶段最大特征根模1.0以上异常,异常识别较原始观测曲线分析减少了人为性与经验性,也反映出断层形变前兆系统结构的动态变化和自适应性。
Using 5 typical observational curve at sites such as Shihuiyaokou,Hongliuxia,Wozitan,Biandukou and Nanying,in the monitoring area of Gansu Province and its boundaries with Ningxia and Qinghai Provinces,the slow time-varying precursor system is constructed,the abnormity is identified,and the possible relationship between the abnormity and preparation of earthquakes around or over 6.0 magnitude are researched.The results show that at the medium and short-term phase before these earthquakes,the maximum module of latent root exceeded 1.0.This method reduced factitious or experiential identification of abnormity relative to analysis of observational curve,also reflects dynamic variation and adaptive features of precursor system structure for cross-fault deformation.
Using 5 typical observational curve at sites such as Shihuiyaokou,Hongliuxia,Wozitan,Biandukou and Nanying,in the monitoring area of Gansu Province and its boundaries with Ningxia and Qinghai Provinces,the slow time-varying precursor system is constructed,the abnormity is identified,and the possible relationship between the abnormity and preparation of earthquakes around or over 6.0 magnitude are researched.The results show that at the medium and short-term phase before these earthquakes,the maximum module of latent root exceeded 1.0.This method reduced factitious or experiential identification of abnormity relative to analysis of observational curve,also reflects dynamic variation and adaptive features of precursor system structure for cross-fault deformation.
引文
[1]江在森,祝意青.永登5.8级地震孕育发生过程中的断层变形与重力场动态图像特征[J].地震学报,1998,20(3):262-271
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[3]王双绪,江在森,陈文胜,等.景泰5.9级地震的断层形变异常及中短期预报[J].地震学报,2001,23(2):151-158
[4]张希,崔笃信,张四新,等.地形变观测揭示的汶川Ms8.0级地震同震响应与影响[J].武汉大学学报.信息科学版,2009,34(10):1204-1209
[5]邱泽华.关于地震前兆的判据问题[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2010,30(Supp):1-5
[6]陈兵,江在森,赵振才.中国西部断层形变趋势异常特征与地震活动关系研究[J].中国地震,2000,16(1):77-85
[7]张希,江在森,王双绪,等.断层形变的应变强度比动态图像与震例综合研究[J].地壳形变与地震,2001,21(2):37-42
[8]张希,薛富平,王双绪,等.大姚、民乐-山丹地震前的中短期前兆[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2004,24(4):57-63
[9]张希,薛富平,贾鹏.甘肃及边邻地区断层形变特征强度时序变化与强震关系[J].国际地震动态,2010(10):43-48
[10]梅世蓉.地震前兆场物理模式与前兆时空分布机制研究(三)———强震孕育地震活动与地壳形变场异常及机制[J].地震学报,1996,18(2):170-178
[11]韩曾晋.自适应控制系统[M].北京:机械工业出版社,1983
[12]刘幸,刘潇.自适应控制系统的发展与应用[J].物联网技术,2011,1(7):61-63
[13]韩正之,陈彭年,陈树中.自适应控制[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2011:31-36
[14]姚海涛,朱福喜,陈海强.一种自适应的PSO粒子滤波人脸视频跟踪方法[J].武汉大学学报.信息科学版,2012,37(4):492-495
[15]牛安福,张凌空,闫伟,等.汶川地震前南北地震带中北段地形变变化特征的研究[J].地震,2009,29(1):100-107
[16]张希,王双绪,张晓亮,等.昆仑山与汶川强烈地震对青藏块体东北缘地壳运动及应变积累的影响[J].地球学报,2010,31(1):32-42
[17]范盛金.一元三次方程的新求根公式与新判别法[J].海南师范学院学报(自然科学版),1989,2(2):91-98
[2]江在森,丁平,王双绪,等.中国西部大地形变监测与地震预测[M].北京:地震出版社,2001:44-46,87-105
[3]王双绪,江在森,陈文胜,等.景泰5.9级地震的断层形变异常及中短期预报[J].地震学报,2001,23(2):151-158
[4]张希,崔笃信,张四新,等.地形变观测揭示的汶川Ms8.0级地震同震响应与影响[J].武汉大学学报.信息科学版,2009,34(10):1204-1209
[5]邱泽华.关于地震前兆的判据问题[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2010,30(Supp):1-5
[6]陈兵,江在森,赵振才.中国西部断层形变趋势异常特征与地震活动关系研究[J].中国地震,2000,16(1):77-85
[7]张希,江在森,王双绪,等.断层形变的应变强度比动态图像与震例综合研究[J].地壳形变与地震,2001,21(2):37-42
[8]张希,薛富平,王双绪,等.大姚、民乐-山丹地震前的中短期前兆[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2004,24(4):57-63
[9]张希,薛富平,贾鹏.甘肃及边邻地区断层形变特征强度时序变化与强震关系[J].国际地震动态,2010(10):43-48
[10]梅世蓉.地震前兆场物理模式与前兆时空分布机制研究(三)———强震孕育地震活动与地壳形变场异常及机制[J].地震学报,1996,18(2):170-178
[11]韩曾晋.自适应控制系统[M].北京:机械工业出版社,1983
[12]刘幸,刘潇.自适应控制系统的发展与应用[J].物联网技术,2011,1(7):61-63
[13]韩正之,陈彭年,陈树中.自适应控制[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2011:31-36
[14]姚海涛,朱福喜,陈海强.一种自适应的PSO粒子滤波人脸视频跟踪方法[J].武汉大学学报.信息科学版,2012,37(4):492-495
[15]牛安福,张凌空,闫伟,等.汶川地震前南北地震带中北段地形变变化特征的研究[J].地震,2009,29(1):100-107
[16]张希,王双绪,张晓亮,等.昆仑山与汶川强烈地震对青藏块体东北缘地壳运动及应变积累的影响[J].地球学报,2010,31(1):32-42
[17]范盛金.一元三次方程的新求根公式与新判别法[J].海南师范学院学报(自然科学版),1989,2(2):91-98
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