云南地区6级以上强震时间分布特征及其概率预测模型研究
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摘要
系统分析了云南地区M≥6.0、M≥6.5和M≥7.0地震的间隔时间分布特征;运用M≥5.0地震目录,基于G—R关系的年发生率和泊松分布模型,构建了云南地区M≥6.0、M≥6.5和M≥7.0地震的概率预测模型;结合间隔时间分布统计特征和概率预测模型,对云南地区M≥6.0、M≥6.5和M≥7.0地震,建立了具有概率水平的三级预测预警指标:C(黄)、B(橙)、A(红)。
The interval distribution features of the earthquakes with M≥6.0,M≥6.5 and M≥7.0 occurred from 1900 to 2009 in Yunnan region are systematically analyzed in this paper.Based on the G-R relation and Poisson model,the probability model of the earthquakes with M≥6.0,M≥6.5 and M≥7.0 are built by using the M≥5.0 earthquake catalogs.Then,the three-grade,prediction-warning indexes(C(yellow),B(orange),A(red))for the earthquakes with M≥6.0,M≥6.5 and M≥7.0 are developed on the basis of the interval features and the probability model.
The interval distribution features of the earthquakes with M≥6.0,M≥6.5 and M≥7.0 occurred from 1900 to 2009 in Yunnan region are systematically analyzed in this paper.Based on the G-R relation and Poisson model,the probability model of the earthquakes with M≥6.0,M≥6.5 and M≥7.0 are built by using the M≥5.0 earthquake catalogs.Then,the three-grade,prediction-warning indexes(C(yellow),B(orange),A(red))for the earthquakes with M≥6.0,M≥6.5 and M≥7.0 are developed on the basis of the interval features and the probability model.
引文
国家地震局震害防御司.1995.中国历史强震目录(公元前23世纪-公元1911年)[M].北京:地震出版社.
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皇甫岗,李忠华.2010.20世纪云南地区地震记录完全性评价[J].地震研究,33(1):1-6.
任俊杰,陈虹.2004.东昆仑断裂带地震复发周期与发震概率研究[J].大地测量与地球动力学,24(3):51-56.
苏有锦,李忠华,刘祖荫,等.2001.20世纪云南地区M≥5.0级地震活动的基本特征[J].地震研究,24(1):1-8.
易桂喜,闻学泽,徐锡伟.2002.川滇地区若干活动断裂带整体的强地震复发特征研究[J].中国地震,18(3):267-296.
张永庆,谢富仁,王峰.2007.乌鲁木齐地区活动断裂强震复发概率模型研究[J].地震地质,29(4):776-786.
Dong W M,Bao A B,Shah HC.1984.Use of maximum entropy principlein earthquake recurrence relationships[J].BSSA,74(2):725-737.
Fie ld E H.2007.A summary of previous working groups on Californiaearthquake probabilities[J].BSSA,97(4):1033-1053.
Kagan Y Y,Jackson D D.1999.Worldwide doublets of large shallowearthquakes[J].BSSA,89:1147-1155.
Matthews MV,Ellsworth W L,Reasenberg P A.2002.A brownian modelfor recurrent earthquakes[J].BSSA,92(6):2233-2250.
Sun J C,Pan TC.1995.The Probability of very large earthquakes in Su-matra[J].BSSA,85(4):1226-1231.
Zller G,Hainzl S.2007.Recurrence time distributions of large earth-quakes in a stochastic model for coupled fault systems:The roles offault interaction[J].BSSA,97(5):1679-1687.
国家地震局震害防御司.1999.中国近代地震目录(公元1912年-1990年)[M].北京:地震出版社.
黄玮琼,李文香,曹学峰.1994.中国大陆地震资料完整性研究(之二)[J].地震学报,16(4):423-432.
皇甫岗,李忠华.2010.20世纪云南地区地震记录完全性评价[J].地震研究,33(1):1-6.
任俊杰,陈虹.2004.东昆仑断裂带地震复发周期与发震概率研究[J].大地测量与地球动力学,24(3):51-56.
苏有锦,李忠华,刘祖荫,等.2001.20世纪云南地区M≥5.0级地震活动的基本特征[J].地震研究,24(1):1-8.
易桂喜,闻学泽,徐锡伟.2002.川滇地区若干活动断裂带整体的强地震复发特征研究[J].中国地震,18(3):267-296.
张永庆,谢富仁,王峰.2007.乌鲁木齐地区活动断裂强震复发概率模型研究[J].地震地质,29(4):776-786.
Dong W M,Bao A B,Shah HC.1984.Use of maximum entropy principlein earthquake recurrence relationships[J].BSSA,74(2):725-737.
Fie ld E H.2007.A summary of previous working groups on Californiaearthquake probabilities[J].BSSA,97(4):1033-1053.
Kagan Y Y,Jackson D D.1999.Worldwide doublets of large shallowearthquakes[J].BSSA,89:1147-1155.
Matthews MV,Ellsworth W L,Reasenberg P A.2002.A brownian modelfor recurrent earthquakes[J].BSSA,92(6):2233-2250.
Sun J C,Pan TC.1995.The Probability of very large earthquakes in Su-matra[J].BSSA,85(4):1226-1231.
Zller G,Hainzl S.2007.Recurrence time distributions of large earth-quakes in a stochastic model for coupled fault systems:The roles offault interaction[J].BSSA,97(5):1679-1687.
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