对新疆乌恰—喀什地区年度地震预测的总结与思考
|
摘要
在对新疆1973年以来年度地震预测情况进行综合研究基础上,重点分析了乌恰-喀什周围地区年度预测的阶段性特点,并对这一地区1900年以来M≥6地震和1972-2008年M≥5.5地震活动特征进行了的研究。认为对该区域地震活动规律性特点认识不足,没有遵循本地区地震活动的基本规律对地震趋势进行客观判断,是造成地震危险区预测效果较差的主要原因。依据地震活跃与间歇的特点认为2008年底开始乌恰-喀什周围地区将进入一个新的活跃时段,这一地区可能仍将继续被划定为年度强地震危险区。
Based on the predictive results of annual seismic risk regions in Xinjiang since 1973,the efficiency in different phases for Wuqia-Kashi region is studied mainly,and the active characteristics of earthquake with magnitude MS≥6.0 since 1900 and also the magnitude MS≥5.5 from 1972 to 2008 are analyzed. It is considered that the earthquake prediction have not obtained finer results in the Wuqia-Kashi annual seismic risk regions,and the reason was lack of correct recognition to the seismic active regulations in this region. At last,according to the history earthquake activity characteristics,we predict that Wuqia-Kashi region will probably start an active period since the end of 2008,and it may be carry out an annual seismic risk area continually.
Based on the predictive results of annual seismic risk regions in Xinjiang since 1973,the efficiency in different phases for Wuqia-Kashi region is studied mainly,and the active characteristics of earthquake with magnitude MS≥6.0 since 1900 and also the magnitude MS≥5.5 from 1972 to 2008 are analyzed. It is considered that the earthquake prediction have not obtained finer results in the Wuqia-Kashi annual seismic risk regions,and the reason was lack of correct recognition to the seismic active regulations in this region. At last,according to the history earthquake activity characteristics,we predict that Wuqia-Kashi region will probably start an active period since the end of 2008,and it may be carry out an annual seismic risk area continually.
引文
[1]王海涛,王琼,赵翠萍.2003年2月24日新疆巴楚-伽师Ms6.8地震的应力触发作用研究[J].西北地震学报,2008,28(4):335-340.
[2]龙海英,高国英,聂晓红.1997-1998年伽师强震群震源区应力场特征[J].西北地震学报,2007,29(2):145-149.
[3]郭卫英,王琼,高歌,等.新疆OLR场基本特征及强震前的异常现象[J].西北地震学报,2008,30(2):163-167.
[4]唐丽华,李锰,王海涛.伽师-巴楚地区中强地震加速度衰减关系研究[J].西北地震学报,2007,29(4):377-379.
[5]郭卫英,高国英,王筱荣.新疆年度地震危险区的时空分布特点[J].内陆地震,2008,22(1):34-42.
[6]高国英,王筱荣,温和平,等.新疆及周边地区强震成组活动及其预测研究[J].地震,2007,27(4):18-26.
[7]胥颐,刘建华,刘福田,等.天山-帕米尔结合带的地壳速度结构及地震活动研究[J].地震物理学报,2006,49(2):469-472.
[8]高国英,王筱荣,温和平.天山地区中强地震预报判据及方案[J].内陆地震,2008,22(2):104-114.
[9]石耀霖,刘杰,张国民.对我国9O年代年度地震预报的评估[J].中国科学院研究生院学报,2000,17(1):63-69.
[10]张国民,刘杰,石耀霖.年度地震预报能力的科学评价[J].地震学报,2002,24(5):525-532.
[11]王海涛.年度地震危险区预测问题的几点初步思考[J].国际地震动态.2005,(317):103-105.
[2]龙海英,高国英,聂晓红.1997-1998年伽师强震群震源区应力场特征[J].西北地震学报,2007,29(2):145-149.
[3]郭卫英,王琼,高歌,等.新疆OLR场基本特征及强震前的异常现象[J].西北地震学报,2008,30(2):163-167.
[4]唐丽华,李锰,王海涛.伽师-巴楚地区中强地震加速度衰减关系研究[J].西北地震学报,2007,29(4):377-379.
[5]郭卫英,高国英,王筱荣.新疆年度地震危险区的时空分布特点[J].内陆地震,2008,22(1):34-42.
[6]高国英,王筱荣,温和平,等.新疆及周边地区强震成组活动及其预测研究[J].地震,2007,27(4):18-26.
[7]胥颐,刘建华,刘福田,等.天山-帕米尔结合带的地壳速度结构及地震活动研究[J].地震物理学报,2006,49(2):469-472.
[8]高国英,王筱荣,温和平.天山地区中强地震预报判据及方案[J].内陆地震,2008,22(2):104-114.
[9]石耀霖,刘杰,张国民.对我国9O年代年度地震预报的评估[J].中国科学院研究生院学报,2000,17(1):63-69.
[10]张国民,刘杰,石耀霖.年度地震预报能力的科学评价[J].地震学报,2002,24(5):525-532.
[11]王海涛.年度地震危险区预测问题的几点初步思考[J].国际地震动态.2005,(317):103-105.
版权所有：© 2023 中国地质图书馆 中国地质调查局地学文献中心