全球及中国大陆强震时序活动特征
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摘要
基于强震目录,讨论了全球、中国大陆西部及周边"大三角地区"和中国大陆地区强震活动时序特征。依据8级地震分段活动特征分析认为,20世纪60年代前后全球特大地震活动状态存在显著差异;利用最优分割统计分析认为,自1800年以来"大三角地区"经历了持续时间为100余年的8级地震活动过程;进一步分析认为全球和"大三角"地区强震活动可能具有至少百年尺度的地震"周期",而且具有一定的准同步性。中国大陆地区MS≥7.0浅源地震活动明显受控于"大三角"地区和全球更大空间尺度的地震活动,地震活动时序上表现为十几年和近百年不同时间层次上的活动特征。
Based on strong earthquake catalogue,this paper discussed the activity characteristics of time series of strong earthquakes in the world,western China mainland and its peripheral "big triangle" seismic region,as well as Chinese continent. According to the analysis of the periodic features of global seismicity of M≥8 strong events,we find that the global seismicity alternates between phases of decade scale of relatively strong and weak activities,and there are significant differences existing in the activity states of global great earthquakes before and after the 1960s. In addition,statistical analysis with Fisher method has revealed that the "big triangular seismic region" has experienced the process of M8 earthquake activity with a duration over a hundred years since 1800(quiescence stage-the transition stage before active-concentrated active stage-adjustment stage after concentrated activity-quiescence stage); further analysis shows the seismicity of the world and the "big triangular seismic region" possibly has a period of a hundred-year scale,and has a certain degree of the quasi-synchronization. The shallow earthquake activity of MS≥7.0 in China continent is obviously controlled by the seismicity in the big triangular seismic region and by the larger spatial scaled global seismicity. In terms of the time series of these earthquakes,the seismicity shows a decadal or century-scale activity patterns. In the former 50 years of the last century,in the relatively active state of global M8.5 great earthquakes,the seismicity in the western part of China mainland and its adjacent "large triangular seismic region" was also active synchronously; however,the quasi-periodic feature of seismicity alternating between quiet and active periods of M≥7 earthquakes in China continent was not obvious. While in the latter 50 years of the last century,in the background of M8.5 seismic quiescence in global and M7 seismic quiescence in the big triangular seismic region,the characteristics of seismic quiescence and active alternating of M≥7 earthquakes in the mainland of China was obvious,the seismicity showed a better quasi-periodic feature of activity and quiescence alternatively in decade scale. Consequently,not only the temporal sequence of strong earthquakes present an activity feature of a ten-year period and nearly a century period in different time levels,but also the regional strong seismic activity in the China continent obviously is controlled by the strong seismicity of "big triangular seismic region",even by the global strong seismicity in larger spatial scale. This paper mainly uses the statistical methods to describe the characteristics of time series of strong earthquake activity in different regions,and analysis is focused on the temporal and spatial distribution of seismic activity,while,to gain an insight into the tectonic origin and geodynamic implication for these phenomena requires further in-depth study.
Based on strong earthquake catalogue,this paper discussed the activity characteristics of time series of strong earthquakes in the world,western China mainland and its peripheral "big triangle" seismic region,as well as Chinese continent. According to the analysis of the periodic features of global seismicity of M≥8 strong events,we find that the global seismicity alternates between phases of decade scale of relatively strong and weak activities,and there are significant differences existing in the activity states of global great earthquakes before and after the 1960s. In addition,statistical analysis with Fisher method has revealed that the "big triangular seismic region" has experienced the process of M8 earthquake activity with a duration over a hundred years since 1800(quiescence stage-the transition stage before active-concentrated active stage-adjustment stage after concentrated activity-quiescence stage); further analysis shows the seismicity of the world and the "big triangular seismic region" possibly has a period of a hundred-year scale,and has a certain degree of the quasi-synchronization. The shallow earthquake activity of MS≥7.0 in China continent is obviously controlled by the seismicity in the big triangular seismic region and by the larger spatial scaled global seismicity. In terms of the time series of these earthquakes,the seismicity shows a decadal or century-scale activity patterns. In the former 50 years of the last century,in the relatively active state of global M8.5 great earthquakes,the seismicity in the western part of China mainland and its adjacent "large triangular seismic region" was also active synchronously; however,the quasi-periodic feature of seismicity alternating between quiet and active periods of M≥7 earthquakes in China continent was not obvious. While in the latter 50 years of the last century,in the background of M8.5 seismic quiescence in global and M7 seismic quiescence in the big triangular seismic region,the characteristics of seismic quiescence and active alternating of M≥7 earthquakes in the mainland of China was obvious,the seismicity showed a better quasi-periodic feature of activity and quiescence alternatively in decade scale. Consequently,not only the temporal sequence of strong earthquakes present an activity feature of a ten-year period and nearly a century period in different time levels,but also the regional strong seismic activity in the China continent obviously is controlled by the strong seismicity of "big triangular seismic region",even by the global strong seismicity in larger spatial scale. This paper mainly uses the statistical methods to describe the characteristics of time series of strong earthquake activity in different regions,and analysis is focused on the temporal and spatial distribution of seismic activity,while,to gain an insight into the tectonic origin and geodynamic implication for these phenomena requires further in-depth study.
引文
白春华,徐文耀.2010.主磁场长期变化十年至百年尺度的周期[J].地球物理学报,53(4):904—911.BAI Chun-hua,XU Wen-yao.2010.Multi-decadal to centennial secular variation of the main geomagnetic field[J].Chinese J Geophys,53(4):904—911(in Chinese).
丁国瑜.1991.活动亚板块、构造块体相对运动[A].丁国瑜.中国岩石圈动力学概论[C].北京:地震出版社.142—153.DING Guo-yu.1991.Active sub-plate and relative movement of tectonic blocks[A].In:Ding Guo-yu(ed).Lithospher-ic Dynamics of China.Seismological Press,Beijing.142—153(in Chinese).
杜品仁,马宗晋,高祥林,等.2010.低纬度环球带和环太平洋带大地震的幕式活动分析[J].地球物理学报,53(12):2869—2874.DU Pin-ren,MA Zong-jin,GAO Xiang-lin,et al.2010.An analysis on episodes of great earthquakes in the low-latitudecircum-earth zone and circum Pacific zone[J].Chinese J Geophys,53(12):2869—2874(in Chinese).
方开泰,潘恩沛.1982.聚类分析[M].北京:地质出版社.FANG Kai-tai,PAN En-pei.1982.Cluster Analysis[M].Geological Publishing House,Beijing(in Chinese).
傅征祥,程燕.1986.中国大陆近代幕式强震活动的某些特征[J].地震,(2):28—35.FU Zheng-xiang,CHENG Yan.1986.Some characteristics of recent episodic strong seismicity in China mainland[J].Earthquake,(2):28—35(in Chinese).
傅征祥,刘杰,王晓青,等.2003.中国大陆西部及邻区板内8级大地震活动过程和趋势预测初步研究[J].地学前缘,10(特刊):112—117.FU Zheng-xiang,LIU Jie,WANG Xiao-qing,et al.2003.Research on process and tendency prediction of great earth-quakes(MS≥8)in western China continent[J].Earth Science Frontiers,10(Suppl):112—117(in Chinese).
韩守琪.1998.南北地震带地震活动分析[J].内陆地震,12(1):36—43.HAN Shou-qi.1998.Seismic activity analysis of south-north seismic belt[J].Inland Earthquake,12(1):36—43(inChinese).
洪时中.1984.最优分割在地震分期中的应用[J].西北地震学报,6(1):49—57.HONG Shi-zhong.1984.Application of Fisher optimal dissection method to earthquake division[J].Northwestern Seis-mologcial Journal,6(1):49—57(in Chinese).
蒋铭,张国民,姜秀娥.1991.地震活动的时间层次结构[J].中国地震,7(3):42—53.JIANG Ming,ZANG Guo-min,JIANG Xiu-e.1991.Stratification structures of durations for seismic activity[J].Earth-quake Research in China,7(3):42—53(in Chinese).
李钦祖.1980.华北地壳应力场的基本特征[J].地球物理学报,23(4):376—388.LI Qin-zu.1980.General features of the stress field in the crust of North China[J].Chinese J Geophys,23(4):376—388(in Chinese).
马杏垣.1989.中国岩石圈动力学地图集[Z].北京:地图出版社.MA Xing-yuan.1989.Lithospheric Dynamics Atlas of China[Z].China Cartographic Publishing House,Beijing(in Chi-nese).
马宗晋,杜品仁,任金卫,等.2006.低纬度环球剪切带及其与环太平洋带大地震的幕式活动[J].中国科学(D辑),36(4):326—331.MA Zong-jin,DU Pin-ren,REN Jin-wei,et al.2006.A circum-earth shear zone at low-latitudes and episodic large earth-quakes in the circum-Pacific seismic zone[J].Science in China(Ser D),49(9):297—303.
马宗晋,傅征祥,张郢珍,等.1982.1966—1976年中国九大地震[M].北京:地震出版社.MA Zong-jin,FU Zheng-xiang,ZHANG Ying-zhen,et al.1982.Earthquake Prediction:Nine Major Earthquakes in Chi-na(1966—1976)[M].Seismological Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
马宗晋,汪良谋,李存悌.1997.中国及邻区特大地震地质与地球物理环境和危险区划分[A].见:马宗晋主编.中国大陆2005年前强震危险区预测研究.北京:地震出版社.172—182.MA Zong-jin,WANG Liang-mou,LI Cun-di.1997.The classification of hazardous area and geological and geophysicalenvironment in China and its adjacent area[A].In:MA Zong-jin(ed).The Research of Prediction of StrongEarthquake Risk Area in China before2005.Seismological Press,Beijing.172—182(in Chinese).
梅世蓉.1960.中国的地震活动性[J].地球物理学报,9(1):1—19.MEI Shi-rong.1960.Seismicity in China[J].Chinese J Geophys,9(1):1—19(in Chinese).
曲维政,黄菲,杜凌,等.2011.火山活动的周期性及其在若干气候要素中的反映[J].地球物理学报,54(3):643—655.QU Wei-zheng,HUANG Fei,DU Ling,et al.2011.The periodicity of volcano activity and its reflection in some climatefactors[J].Chinese J Geophys,54(3):643—655(in Chinese).
时振梁,汪良谋,傅征祥,等.1997.中国大陆中长期强震危险性预测方法研究[M].北京:海洋出版社.SHI Zhen-liang,WANG Liang-mou,FU Zheng-xiang,et al.1997.Research of Strong Earthquake Long Term Risk Pre-diction in China Mainland[M].Ocean Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
张国民.1987.中国大陆强震活动的韵律特征[J].地震地质,9(2):27—37.ZHANG Guo-min.1987.Rhythmic characteristics of high seismic activity in China mainland[J].Seismology and Geol-ogy,9(2):27—37(in Chinese).
张国民,马宏生.2006.中国陆区7级地震形势分析[A].中国地震局地震预测研究所编.中国大陆强震趋势预测研究(2007年度).北京:地震出版社.59—64.ZHANG Guo-min,MA Hong-sheng.2006.The analysis of strong earthquake situation in China mainland[A].In:Insti-tute of Earthquake Science(ed).The Research of Prediction of Strong Earthquake Trend in China Mainland.Seis-mological Press,Beijing.59—64(in Chinese).
张国民,傅征祥.1985.华北强震的时间分布及物理解释[J].地球物理学报,28(6):569—578.ZHANG Guo-min,FU Zheng-xiang.1985.Time sequences of strong earthquakes in North China and their explanation[J].Chinese J Geophys,28(6):569—578(in Chinese).
张国民,马宗晋,蒋铭.1988.华北强震规律的研究[J].中国地震,4(3):66—70.ZHANG Guo-min,MA Zong-jin,JIANG Ming.1988.Research on the regularity of strong earthquakes in North China[J].Earthquake Research in China,4(3):66—70(in Chinese).
张国民,张培震.2000.“大陆强震机理与预测”中期学术进展[J].中国基础科学,(10):4—10.ZHANG Guo-min,ZHANG Pei-zhen.2000.Progress on the mechanism and forecast for continental strong earthquakes[J].China Basic Science,(10):4—10(in Chinese).
张培震,邓起东,张国民,等.2003.中国大陆的强震活动与活动地块[J].中国科学(D辑),33(增刊):12—20.ZHANG Pei-zhen,DENG Qi-dong,ZHANG Guo-min.et al.2003.Active tectonic blocks and strong earthquakes in thecontinent of China[J].Science in China(Ser D),46(Suppl):13—24.
张文佑.1984.断块构造导论[M].北京:石油工业出版社.ZHANG Wen-you.1984.Introduction to Fault-block Theory[M].Petroleum Industry Publishing House,Beijing(in Chi-nese).
中国地震局震害防御司.1999.中国近代地震目录[Z].北京:中国科学技术出版社.Earthquake Disaster Prevention Department of State Seismological Bureau.1999.Catalogue of Chinese Recent Earth-quakes[Z].China Science and Technology Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
中国地震局震害防御司.1995.中国历史强震目录[Z].北京:地震出版社.Earthquake Disaster Prevention Department of State Seismological Bureau.1995.Catalogue of Chinese Historical StrongEarthquake[M].Seismological Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
Bilham R,Gaur V K,Molnar P.2001.Himalayan seismic hazard[J].Science,293:1442—1444.
Fisher W D.1958.On grouping for maximum homogeneity[J].J Am Statist Assoc,53:789—798.
Gutenberg B,Richter C F.1954.Seismicity of the Earth and Associated Phenomena[M].Princeton University Press,Princeton,New Jersey.
Gutenberg B,Richter C F.1956.Earthquake magnitude,intensity,energy and acceleration(second paper)[J].BullSeismol Soc Am,46:105—145.
Kagan Y Y,Jackson D D.1991.Long-term earthquake clustering[J].Geophy J Int,104:117—133.
Kahattri K N.1987.Great earthquakes seismicity gap and potential for earthquake disaster along the Himalayan plateboundary[J].Tectonophysics,138:79—92.
Levin B V,Sasorova E V.2009.Bimodal character of latitudinal earthquake distributions in the Pacific region as a mani-festation of global seismicity[J].Doklady Earth Sciences,424(1):175—179.
Mogi K.1974.Active periods in the world's chief seismic belts[J].Tectonophysics,22(3-4):265—282.
Mogi K.1979.Global variation of seismic activity[J].Tectonophysics,57(2-4):43—50.
Ogurtsov M G,Nagovitsyn Y A,Kocharov G E,et al.,2002.Long-period cycles of the sun's activity recorded in directsolar data and proxies[J].Solar Physics,211:371—394.
Rundquist D V,Sobolev P O.2002.Seismicity of mid-oceanic ridges and its geodynamic implications:A review[J].Earth Science Reviews,58:143—161.
丁国瑜.1991.活动亚板块、构造块体相对运动[A].丁国瑜.中国岩石圈动力学概论[C].北京:地震出版社.142—153.DING Guo-yu.1991.Active sub-plate and relative movement of tectonic blocks[A].In:Ding Guo-yu(ed).Lithospher-ic Dynamics of China.Seismological Press,Beijing.142—153(in Chinese).
杜品仁,马宗晋,高祥林,等.2010.低纬度环球带和环太平洋带大地震的幕式活动分析[J].地球物理学报,53(12):2869—2874.DU Pin-ren,MA Zong-jin,GAO Xiang-lin,et al.2010.An analysis on episodes of great earthquakes in the low-latitudecircum-earth zone and circum Pacific zone[J].Chinese J Geophys,53(12):2869—2874(in Chinese).
方开泰,潘恩沛.1982.聚类分析[M].北京:地质出版社.FANG Kai-tai,PAN En-pei.1982.Cluster Analysis[M].Geological Publishing House,Beijing(in Chinese).
傅征祥,程燕.1986.中国大陆近代幕式强震活动的某些特征[J].地震,(2):28—35.FU Zheng-xiang,CHENG Yan.1986.Some characteristics of recent episodic strong seismicity in China mainland[J].Earthquake,(2):28—35(in Chinese).
傅征祥,刘杰,王晓青,等.2003.中国大陆西部及邻区板内8级大地震活动过程和趋势预测初步研究[J].地学前缘,10(特刊):112—117.FU Zheng-xiang,LIU Jie,WANG Xiao-qing,et al.2003.Research on process and tendency prediction of great earth-quakes(MS≥8)in western China continent[J].Earth Science Frontiers,10(Suppl):112—117(in Chinese).
韩守琪.1998.南北地震带地震活动分析[J].内陆地震,12(1):36—43.HAN Shou-qi.1998.Seismic activity analysis of south-north seismic belt[J].Inland Earthquake,12(1):36—43(inChinese).
洪时中.1984.最优分割在地震分期中的应用[J].西北地震学报,6(1):49—57.HONG Shi-zhong.1984.Application of Fisher optimal dissection method to earthquake division[J].Northwestern Seis-mologcial Journal,6(1):49—57(in Chinese).
蒋铭,张国民,姜秀娥.1991.地震活动的时间层次结构[J].中国地震,7(3):42—53.JIANG Ming,ZANG Guo-min,JIANG Xiu-e.1991.Stratification structures of durations for seismic activity[J].Earth-quake Research in China,7(3):42—53(in Chinese).
李钦祖.1980.华北地壳应力场的基本特征[J].地球物理学报,23(4):376—388.LI Qin-zu.1980.General features of the stress field in the crust of North China[J].Chinese J Geophys,23(4):376—388(in Chinese).
马杏垣.1989.中国岩石圈动力学地图集[Z].北京:地图出版社.MA Xing-yuan.1989.Lithospheric Dynamics Atlas of China[Z].China Cartographic Publishing House,Beijing(in Chi-nese).
马宗晋,杜品仁,任金卫,等.2006.低纬度环球剪切带及其与环太平洋带大地震的幕式活动[J].中国科学(D辑),36(4):326—331.MA Zong-jin,DU Pin-ren,REN Jin-wei,et al.2006.A circum-earth shear zone at low-latitudes and episodic large earth-quakes in the circum-Pacific seismic zone[J].Science in China(Ser D),49(9):297—303.
马宗晋,傅征祥,张郢珍,等.1982.1966—1976年中国九大地震[M].北京:地震出版社.MA Zong-jin,FU Zheng-xiang,ZHANG Ying-zhen,et al.1982.Earthquake Prediction:Nine Major Earthquakes in Chi-na(1966—1976)[M].Seismological Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
马宗晋,汪良谋,李存悌.1997.中国及邻区特大地震地质与地球物理环境和危险区划分[A].见:马宗晋主编.中国大陆2005年前强震危险区预测研究.北京:地震出版社.172—182.MA Zong-jin,WANG Liang-mou,LI Cun-di.1997.The classification of hazardous area and geological and geophysicalenvironment in China and its adjacent area[A].In:MA Zong-jin(ed).The Research of Prediction of StrongEarthquake Risk Area in China before2005.Seismological Press,Beijing.172—182(in Chinese).
梅世蓉.1960.中国的地震活动性[J].地球物理学报,9(1):1—19.MEI Shi-rong.1960.Seismicity in China[J].Chinese J Geophys,9(1):1—19(in Chinese).
曲维政,黄菲,杜凌,等.2011.火山活动的周期性及其在若干气候要素中的反映[J].地球物理学报,54(3):643—655.QU Wei-zheng,HUANG Fei,DU Ling,et al.2011.The periodicity of volcano activity and its reflection in some climatefactors[J].Chinese J Geophys,54(3):643—655(in Chinese).
时振梁,汪良谋,傅征祥,等.1997.中国大陆中长期强震危险性预测方法研究[M].北京:海洋出版社.SHI Zhen-liang,WANG Liang-mou,FU Zheng-xiang,et al.1997.Research of Strong Earthquake Long Term Risk Pre-diction in China Mainland[M].Ocean Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
张国民.1987.中国大陆强震活动的韵律特征[J].地震地质,9(2):27—37.ZHANG Guo-min.1987.Rhythmic characteristics of high seismic activity in China mainland[J].Seismology and Geol-ogy,9(2):27—37(in Chinese).
张国民,马宏生.2006.中国陆区7级地震形势分析[A].中国地震局地震预测研究所编.中国大陆强震趋势预测研究(2007年度).北京:地震出版社.59—64.ZHANG Guo-min,MA Hong-sheng.2006.The analysis of strong earthquake situation in China mainland[A].In:Insti-tute of Earthquake Science(ed).The Research of Prediction of Strong Earthquake Trend in China Mainland.Seis-mological Press,Beijing.59—64(in Chinese).
张国民,傅征祥.1985.华北强震的时间分布及物理解释[J].地球物理学报,28(6):569—578.ZHANG Guo-min,FU Zheng-xiang.1985.Time sequences of strong earthquakes in North China and their explanation[J].Chinese J Geophys,28(6):569—578(in Chinese).
张国民,马宗晋,蒋铭.1988.华北强震规律的研究[J].中国地震,4(3):66—70.ZHANG Guo-min,MA Zong-jin,JIANG Ming.1988.Research on the regularity of strong earthquakes in North China[J].Earthquake Research in China,4(3):66—70(in Chinese).
张国民,张培震.2000.“大陆强震机理与预测”中期学术进展[J].中国基础科学,(10):4—10.ZHANG Guo-min,ZHANG Pei-zhen.2000.Progress on the mechanism and forecast for continental strong earthquakes[J].China Basic Science,(10):4—10(in Chinese).
张培震,邓起东,张国民,等.2003.中国大陆的强震活动与活动地块[J].中国科学(D辑),33(增刊):12—20.ZHANG Pei-zhen,DENG Qi-dong,ZHANG Guo-min.et al.2003.Active tectonic blocks and strong earthquakes in thecontinent of China[J].Science in China(Ser D),46(Suppl):13—24.
张文佑.1984.断块构造导论[M].北京:石油工业出版社.ZHANG Wen-you.1984.Introduction to Fault-block Theory[M].Petroleum Industry Publishing House,Beijing(in Chi-nese).
中国地震局震害防御司.1999.中国近代地震目录[Z].北京:中国科学技术出版社.Earthquake Disaster Prevention Department of State Seismological Bureau.1999.Catalogue of Chinese Recent Earth-quakes[Z].China Science and Technology Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
中国地震局震害防御司.1995.中国历史强震目录[Z].北京:地震出版社.Earthquake Disaster Prevention Department of State Seismological Bureau.1995.Catalogue of Chinese Historical StrongEarthquake[M].Seismological Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
Bilham R,Gaur V K,Molnar P.2001.Himalayan seismic hazard[J].Science,293:1442—1444.
Fisher W D.1958.On grouping for maximum homogeneity[J].J Am Statist Assoc,53:789—798.
Gutenberg B,Richter C F.1954.Seismicity of the Earth and Associated Phenomena[M].Princeton University Press,Princeton,New Jersey.
Gutenberg B,Richter C F.1956.Earthquake magnitude,intensity,energy and acceleration(second paper)[J].BullSeismol Soc Am,46:105—145.
Kagan Y Y,Jackson D D.1991.Long-term earthquake clustering[J].Geophy J Int,104:117—133.
Kahattri K N.1987.Great earthquakes seismicity gap and potential for earthquake disaster along the Himalayan plateboundary[J].Tectonophysics,138:79—92.
Levin B V,Sasorova E V.2009.Bimodal character of latitudinal earthquake distributions in the Pacific region as a mani-festation of global seismicity[J].Doklady Earth Sciences,424(1):175—179.
Mogi K.1974.Active periods in the world's chief seismic belts[J].Tectonophysics,22(3-4):265—282.
Mogi K.1979.Global variation of seismic activity[J].Tectonophysics,57(2-4):43—50.
Ogurtsov M G,Nagovitsyn Y A,Kocharov G E,et al.,2002.Long-period cycles of the sun's activity recorded in directsolar data and proxies[J].Solar Physics,211:371—394.
Rundquist D V,Sobolev P O.2002.Seismicity of mid-oceanic ridges and its geodynamic implications:A review[J].Earth Science Reviews,58:143—161.
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