GPS展示的中国大陆主要相对变形特征及强震活动研究
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摘要
根据GPS观测结果,对全球板块运动特征进行了描述,并分析了其对中国大陆构造及深大断裂形成所产生的影响,指出以南北带为界,西部多以北西向和近东西向断裂为主,东部以南北向和北东向断裂为主,形成这一格局主要是印度板块和北美板块相对欧亚大陆板块长期运动的结果.继而通过张、压、剪切等不同的变形特征讨论了板块运动、断层构造与强震孕育发生之间的关系,结合华北1999-2009年期间多期GPS给出的区域无旋转基准下的水平形变场,从孕震机理上分析了强震孕育的可能性,并分析了5.12汶川地震和3.11日本地震可能对华北产生的影响,认为对华北应该进一步加强研究,对山西断陷带中南部应该给予特别关注.
Since 21st century,a period of high incidence of strong earthquake is coming globally.On China Continent,strong earthquakes such as Kunlunshan MS 8.1,Wenchuan MS 8.0 and Yushu MS 7.1 etc.have also occurred in succession.From analysis of migration of history earthquakes in China Continent,North China is concerned as key area.March 11,2011,massive earthquake with magnitude 9.0 occurred in Japan.Thus we should pay more attention to North China for seismic situation.Based on GPS monitoring results,the world wide plate motions are described in this paper,and their impacts on the formation of geotectonic structure and large-deep faults in China continent are analyzed.Treating the North-south belt as a boundary,faults are mainly with the strike of northwest-southeast or nearly west-east in the west part of China,and mainly with the fault strike of north-south or northeast-southwest in the east part.This is mainly resulted by the long term motion of India plate and North American plate relative to Eurasia plate.By the different deformation features of expansion,stress and shearing,the relation between plate motion,fault formation and strong earthquake generation are discussed.With horizontal deformation field of North-China under the regional no-rotation fiducial frame given by multi-terms of GPS monitoring data,the possibility of strong earthquake generation is analyzed.Simultaneously,the impact of Wenchuan MS 8.0 earthquake on May 12,2008 and Japan MS 9.0 earthquake on March 11,2011 is analyzed.Wenchuan earthquake has strengthened crust motion in north-east direction in the west part of North China;The Japan earthquake prompt pacific plate underthrust eurasian plate further,overlapping the long term effect of North American plate,the tendency of the east part of North China moving to south would be strengthened further.This would accumulate more clockwise shearing strain energy in a series of fault belts distributed nearly the direction of southwest to northeast in North China.Thus the probability of strong earthquake preparation would be increased.The middle and south parts of Shanxi fault subsidence zone would be more risky areas by integrated analysis.
Since 21st century,a period of high incidence of strong earthquake is coming globally.On China Continent,strong earthquakes such as Kunlunshan MS 8.1,Wenchuan MS 8.0 and Yushu MS 7.1 etc.have also occurred in succession.From analysis of migration of history earthquakes in China Continent,North China is concerned as key area.March 11,2011,massive earthquake with magnitude 9.0 occurred in Japan.Thus we should pay more attention to North China for seismic situation.Based on GPS monitoring results,the world wide plate motions are described in this paper,and their impacts on the formation of geotectonic structure and large-deep faults in China continent are analyzed.Treating the North-south belt as a boundary,faults are mainly with the strike of northwest-southeast or nearly west-east in the west part of China,and mainly with the fault strike of north-south or northeast-southwest in the east part.This is mainly resulted by the long term motion of India plate and North American plate relative to Eurasia plate.By the different deformation features of expansion,stress and shearing,the relation between plate motion,fault formation and strong earthquake generation are discussed.With horizontal deformation field of North-China under the regional no-rotation fiducial frame given by multi-terms of GPS monitoring data,the possibility of strong earthquake generation is analyzed.Simultaneously,the impact of Wenchuan MS 8.0 earthquake on May 12,2008 and Japan MS 9.0 earthquake on March 11,2011 is analyzed.Wenchuan earthquake has strengthened crust motion in north-east direction in the west part of North China;The Japan earthquake prompt pacific plate underthrust eurasian plate further,overlapping the long term effect of North American plate,the tendency of the east part of North China moving to south would be strengthened further.This would accumulate more clockwise shearing strain energy in a series of fault belts distributed nearly the direction of southwest to northeast in North China.Thus the probability of strong earthquake preparation would be increased.The middle and south parts of Shanxi fault subsidence zone would be more risky areas by integrated analysis.
引文
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[7]刘峡,马谨,傅容珊,等.华北地区现今地壳运动动力学初步研究[J].地球物理学报,2010,53(6):1418-1427.Liu X,Ma J,Fu R S,et al.Primary study on the dynamics ofthe present-day crustal motion in North China Region[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2010,53(6):1418-1427.
[8]张强,朱文耀.根据空间大地测量结果建立的中国地壳构造块体的运动模型[J].紫金山天文台台刊,2000,19(2):142-148.Zhang Q,Zhu W Y.The establishment of the tectonic blockmotion model of china from space geodetic data[J].Publications of Purple Mountain Observatory(in Chinese),2000,19(2):142-148.
[9]金双银,朱文耀.基于ITRF2000的全球板块运动模型[J].中国科学院上海天文台年刊,2002,(23):28-33.Jin S Y,Zhu W Y.Global plate motion models based onITRF2000[J].Annals of Shanghai Observatory AcademiaSinica(in Chinese),2002,(23):28-33.
[10]金双银,朱文耀.全球地壳运动的背景场及其研究进展[J].地球科学进展,2002,17(5):782-786.Jin S Y,Zhu W Y.The background field of global crustalmotions and its studying progress[J].Advance in EarthSciences(in Chinese),2002,17(5):782-786.
[11]金双银,朱文耀.太平洋板块运动和形变及其边缘现今相对运动[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2002,22(2):57-60.Jin S Y,Zhu W Y.The motion and deformation of PacificPlate and contemporary relative motion at its boundaries[J].Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics(in Chinese),2002,22(2):57-60.
[12]程宗颐,朱文耀.由APRGP97-APRGP99的GPS联测资料确定的亚太地区地壳形变[J].地震学报,2001,23(3):268-279.Cheng Z Y,Zhu W Y.Crustal deformation of Asia Pacificarea determined by the GPS data of APRGP97-APRGP99[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica(in Chinese),2001,23(3):268-279.
[13]应绍奋,黄立人,郭良迁,等.由GPS观测得到的中国大陆水平形变[J].地震地质,1999,21(4):459-464.Ying S F,Huang L R,Guo L Q,et al.Horizontaldeformation of Chinese continent obtained by GPS survey[J].Seismology and Geology(in Chinese),1999,21(4):459-464.
[14]朱文耀,程宗颐,王小亚,等.中国大陆地壳运动的背景场[J].科学通报,1999,44(14):1537-1540.Zhu W Y,Cheng Z Y,Wang X Y,et al.Background field ofcrust motion on China Continent[J].Chinese Science Bulletin(in Chinese),1999,44(14):1537-1540.
[15]李延兴,李智,张静华,等.中国大陆及周边地区的水平应变场[J].地球物理学报,2004,47(2):222-231.Li Y X,Li Z,Zhang J H,et al.Horizontal strain field in theChinese mainland and its surrounding areas[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2004,47(2):222-231.
[16]李延兴,黄城,朱文耀,等.中国大陆水平运动特征与动力学分析[J].地震,20(Sup.):28-33.Li Y X,Huang C,Zhu W Y,et al.Characteristics ofhorizontal movement in China’s continent and geodynamicanalysis[J].Earthquake(in Chinese),20(Sup.):28-33.
[17]Argus D F,Heflin M B.Plate motion and crustal deformationestimated with geodetic data from the Global PositioningSystem[J].Geophysical Research Letters,1995,22(15):1973-1976.
[18]薄万举,杨国华,张风霜.汶川MS8.0地震孕震机理的形变证据与模型推演[J].地震,2009,29(1):85-91.Bo W J,Yang G H,Zhang F S.Deformation evidence andmodel deduction about the generation mechanism of theWenchuan Ms8.0earthquake[J].Earthquake(in Chinese),2009,29(1):85-91
[19]占伟.日本9.0级地震GNSS高频数据处理初步结果[RL/OL].http://www.eq-gc1.com/zazhis-2885.htmlZhan W.Preliminary result of GNSS high frequency dataprocessing for Japan Ms9.0earthquake(in Chinese)[RL/OL].http://www.eq-gc1.com/zazhis-2885.html.
[20]Vere-Jones D.Stochastic models for earthquake occurrence[J].J.Roy.Stat.Soc.,1970,B32(1):1-62.
[21]Zhuang J C,Ma L.The stress release model and results frommodelling features of some seismic regions in China[J].ActaSeismologica Sinica,1998,11(1):59-70.
[22]Huang J L,Zhao D P.High-resolution mantle tomography ofChina and surrounding regions[J].Journal of GeophysicalResearch,2006,111(B9):B09305,doi:10.1029/2005JB004066.
[23]胡新康,王倩,马青,等.区域无整体旋转基准的研究与应用[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2007,27(2):52-60.Hu X K,Wang Q,Ma Q,et al.Research and application ofregional no-net-rotation reference frame[J].Journal ofGeodesy and Geodynamics(in Chinese),2007,27(2):52-60.
[24]朱文耀,符养,李彦,等.ITRF2000的无整体旋转约束及最新全球板块运动模型NNR-ITRF2000VEL[J].中国科学:D辑,2003,33(增刊):1-11.Zhu W Y,Fu Y,Li Y et al.No-rotational constraint ofITRF2000and the newest global plates’motion model NNR-ITRF2000VEL[J].Science in China(Series D)(inChinese),2003,33(Sup.):1-11.
[25]杨国华,江在森,武艳强,等.中国大陆整体无净旋转基准及其应用[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2005,25(4):10-14.Yang G H,Jiang Z S,Wu Y Q,et al.No-net-rotation oncrustal movement of China mainland and its application[J].Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics(in Chinese),2005,25(4):10-14.
[26]吴佳翼,郁曙君,何淑韵.华北地震同日本地震的相关性[J].地球物理学报,1979,22(4):415-438.Wu J Y,Yu S J,He S J.The correlation of earthquakeoccurrence between northeastern China and Japan[J].ActaGeophysica Sinica(Chinese J.Geophys.)(in Chinese),1979,22(4):415-438.
①中国地震局“十五”重点科研课题报告:断层形变时空演化与强震活动关系研究,课题编号:100501-05-06,第64页10～11行。2004年12月。
①杨国华等,中国地震局第一监测中心震情趋势研究报告,2010.
[2]常晓涛,胡建国,程英燕.利用IGS全球站的GPS数据分析中国大陆东部的板内形变机制[J].测绘科技动态,1999,(4):28-32.Chang X T,Hu J G,Cheng Y Y.Analysis for deformationmechanism of eastern China continent with GPS data fromglobal IGS stations[J].Science and Technology Developmentof Surveying and Mapping(in Chinese),1999,(4):28-32.
[3]国家重大科学工程“中国地壳运动观测网络”项目组.GPS测定的2008年汶川Ms8.0级地震的同震位移场[J].中国科学(D辑:地球科学),2008,38(10):1195-1206.Team of National Key Scientific Engineering“China CrustMovement Monitoring Network”.Coseismic displacement fieldof 2008Wenchuan MS8.0earthquake determined by GPS[J].Science in China(Series D)(in Chinese),2008,38(10):1195-1206.
[4]江在森,马宗晋,张希,等.GPS初步结果揭示的中国大陆水平应变场与构造变形[J].地球物理学报,2003,46(3):352-358.Jiang Z S,Ma Z J,Zhang X,et al.Horizontal strain field andtectonic deformation of china mainland revealed by preliminaryGPS result[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2003,46(3):352-358.
[5]朱文耀,王小亚,符养,等.基于ITRF2000的全球板块运动模型和中国的地壳形变[J].地球物理学报,2002,45(Suppl.):197-204.Zhu W Y,Wang X Y,Fu Y,et al.Global plate motion fromITRF2000and crustal deformation around China[J].ChineseJ.Geophys.(in Chinese),2002,45(Suppl.):197-204.
[6]黄立人,符养,段五杏,等.由GPS观测结果推断中国大陆活动构造边界[J].地球物理学报,2003,46(5):609-615.Huang L R,Fu Y,Duan W X,et al.Active tectonicboundaries of the China mainland inferred from GPSobservations[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2003,46(5):609-615.
[7]刘峡,马谨,傅容珊,等.华北地区现今地壳运动动力学初步研究[J].地球物理学报,2010,53(6):1418-1427.Liu X,Ma J,Fu R S,et al.Primary study on the dynamics ofthe present-day crustal motion in North China Region[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2010,53(6):1418-1427.
[8]张强,朱文耀.根据空间大地测量结果建立的中国地壳构造块体的运动模型[J].紫金山天文台台刊,2000,19(2):142-148.Zhang Q,Zhu W Y.The establishment of the tectonic blockmotion model of china from space geodetic data[J].Publications of Purple Mountain Observatory(in Chinese),2000,19(2):142-148.
[9]金双银,朱文耀.基于ITRF2000的全球板块运动模型[J].中国科学院上海天文台年刊,2002,(23):28-33.Jin S Y,Zhu W Y.Global plate motion models based onITRF2000[J].Annals of Shanghai Observatory AcademiaSinica(in Chinese),2002,(23):28-33.
[10]金双银,朱文耀.全球地壳运动的背景场及其研究进展[J].地球科学进展,2002,17(5):782-786.Jin S Y,Zhu W Y.The background field of global crustalmotions and its studying progress[J].Advance in EarthSciences(in Chinese),2002,17(5):782-786.
[11]金双银,朱文耀.太平洋板块运动和形变及其边缘现今相对运动[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2002,22(2):57-60.Jin S Y,Zhu W Y.The motion and deformation of PacificPlate and contemporary relative motion at its boundaries[J].Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics(in Chinese),2002,22(2):57-60.
[12]程宗颐,朱文耀.由APRGP97-APRGP99的GPS联测资料确定的亚太地区地壳形变[J].地震学报,2001,23(3):268-279.Cheng Z Y,Zhu W Y.Crustal deformation of Asia Pacificarea determined by the GPS data of APRGP97-APRGP99[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica(in Chinese),2001,23(3):268-279.
[13]应绍奋,黄立人,郭良迁,等.由GPS观测得到的中国大陆水平形变[J].地震地质,1999,21(4):459-464.Ying S F,Huang L R,Guo L Q,et al.Horizontaldeformation of Chinese continent obtained by GPS survey[J].Seismology and Geology(in Chinese),1999,21(4):459-464.
[14]朱文耀,程宗颐,王小亚,等.中国大陆地壳运动的背景场[J].科学通报,1999,44(14):1537-1540.Zhu W Y,Cheng Z Y,Wang X Y,et al.Background field ofcrust motion on China Continent[J].Chinese Science Bulletin(in Chinese),1999,44(14):1537-1540.
[15]李延兴,李智,张静华,等.中国大陆及周边地区的水平应变场[J].地球物理学报,2004,47(2):222-231.Li Y X,Li Z,Zhang J H,et al.Horizontal strain field in theChinese mainland and its surrounding areas[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2004,47(2):222-231.
[16]李延兴,黄城,朱文耀,等.中国大陆水平运动特征与动力学分析[J].地震,20(Sup.):28-33.Li Y X,Huang C,Zhu W Y,et al.Characteristics ofhorizontal movement in China’s continent and geodynamicanalysis[J].Earthquake(in Chinese),20(Sup.):28-33.
[17]Argus D F,Heflin M B.Plate motion and crustal deformationestimated with geodetic data from the Global PositioningSystem[J].Geophysical Research Letters,1995,22(15):1973-1976.
[18]薄万举,杨国华,张风霜.汶川MS8.0地震孕震机理的形变证据与模型推演[J].地震,2009,29(1):85-91.Bo W J,Yang G H,Zhang F S.Deformation evidence andmodel deduction about the generation mechanism of theWenchuan Ms8.0earthquake[J].Earthquake(in Chinese),2009,29(1):85-91
[19]占伟.日本9.0级地震GNSS高频数据处理初步结果[RL/OL].http://www.eq-gc1.com/zazhis-2885.htmlZhan W.Preliminary result of GNSS high frequency dataprocessing for Japan Ms9.0earthquake(in Chinese)[RL/OL].http://www.eq-gc1.com/zazhis-2885.html.
[20]Vere-Jones D.Stochastic models for earthquake occurrence[J].J.Roy.Stat.Soc.,1970,B32(1):1-62.
[21]Zhuang J C,Ma L.The stress release model and results frommodelling features of some seismic regions in China[J].ActaSeismologica Sinica,1998,11(1):59-70.
[22]Huang J L,Zhao D P.High-resolution mantle tomography ofChina and surrounding regions[J].Journal of GeophysicalResearch,2006,111(B9):B09305,doi:10.1029/2005JB004066.
[23]胡新康,王倩,马青,等.区域无整体旋转基准的研究与应用[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2007,27(2):52-60.Hu X K,Wang Q,Ma Q,et al.Research and application ofregional no-net-rotation reference frame[J].Journal ofGeodesy and Geodynamics(in Chinese),2007,27(2):52-60.
[24]朱文耀,符养,李彦,等.ITRF2000的无整体旋转约束及最新全球板块运动模型NNR-ITRF2000VEL[J].中国科学:D辑,2003,33(增刊):1-11.Zhu W Y,Fu Y,Li Y et al.No-rotational constraint ofITRF2000and the newest global plates’motion model NNR-ITRF2000VEL[J].Science in China(Series D)(inChinese),2003,33(Sup.):1-11.
[25]杨国华,江在森,武艳强,等.中国大陆整体无净旋转基准及其应用[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2005,25(4):10-14.Yang G H,Jiang Z S,Wu Y Q,et al.No-net-rotation oncrustal movement of China mainland and its application[J].Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics(in Chinese),2005,25(4):10-14.
[26]吴佳翼,郁曙君,何淑韵.华北地震同日本地震的相关性[J].地球物理学报,1979,22(4):415-438.Wu J Y,Yu S J,He S J.The correlation of earthquakeoccurrence between northeastern China and Japan[J].ActaGeophysica Sinica(Chinese J.Geophys.)(in Chinese),1979,22(4):415-438.
①中国地震局“十五”重点科研课题报告:断层形变时空演化与强震活动关系研究,课题编号:100501-05-06,第64页10～11行。2004年12月。
①杨国华等,中国地震局第一监测中心震情趋势研究报告,2010.
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