重庆及邻区震后烈度分布评估模型构建
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摘要
选取重庆及邻区作为研究区域,将典型历史地震震例的等震线图数字化,通过回归分析分别构建了基于烈度衰减关系的烈度分布评估模型、基于等震线长短轴半径的"王景来"烈度分布评估模型和基于面积的烈度分布评估模型。最后利用算例验证了上述三种模型的适用性。震后烈度分布评估模型对于震后灾害损失评估有重要的意义。
After an earthquake,the earthquake disaster rapid assessment team needs very detailed information,such as an intensity distribution map.If we can study several kinds of different intensity distribution evaluation models in support of the emergency database and compare the difference between disaster evaluation results from different models,the final result will have greater credibility.In this study,the research area of focus was Chongqing and its adjacent areas.The research analyzed 19 earthquakes since 1960,collected and digitized 19 seismic intensity isoseismal maps,and acquired a total of 46 isoseismal data sets,including long axis,short axis,and total area,for a data total of 141.In accordance with the characteristics of historical isoseismals,the isoseismals were processed as ovals.In this study,the researcher looked at the epicenter distribution of earthquakes in Chongqing and the vicinity,the intensity data,and the distribution of seismic magnitude and intensity.Through regression analysis,an intensity distribution evaluation model was developed on the basis of the seismic intensity attenuation relationship,and the results from the model were compared with those from other models,which yielded a figure representing the comparison.The attenuation relationship of the earthquake in Chongqing and its adjacent area was compared with Suyun Wang,in China's eastern region;Jianqi Lu,in a moderate earthquake area,and Jiancheng Lei,in Sichuan Basin.To make the seismic intensity attenuation curve closer to the actual situation with respect to far-field and near-field intensity,additional measures were needed to improve the distribution of the data.Hence,the author developed intensity distribution evaluation models based on the length of the prolate axis and the minor axis,and area statistics.The author developed different fitting curves for(1) magnitude V long shaft fitting,(2) magnitude V short axial fitting,(3) magnitude VI long shaft fitting,and(4) magnitude VI short axial fitting.Comparisons were made with one magnitude degree above the intensity area,for the intensity I relationship,and for the length of shaft radius ratio.Last,the author used the examples to verify the above three kinds of models.The model based on the attenuation relationship and the model based on "Wang Jinglai" give intensity in two mutually perpendicular directions with distance attenuation,and the model based on the area is the seismic intensity distribution on the surface.The former two models are one-dimensional,and the third is two-dimensional.If an earthquake of grade IV or V happened in Chongqing and its adjacent areas,the author calculated three kinds of intensity distribution evaluation models,getting long and short axis radii.The first two models' calculation results were more closely matched and so are deemed the best by the author.Because the sample size is small,we will expand the research area in the next study to include a destructive earthquake region.Furthermore,we will include methods of data correction in the earthquake disaster loss assessment process in order to more closely approximate the true mean variance regression relationship.The shape of the intensity distribution curve was very significant for the earthquake disaster loss assessment.
After an earthquake,the earthquake disaster rapid assessment team needs very detailed information,such as an intensity distribution map.If we can study several kinds of different intensity distribution evaluation models in support of the emergency database and compare the difference between disaster evaluation results from different models,the final result will have greater credibility.In this study,the research area of focus was Chongqing and its adjacent areas.The research analyzed 19 earthquakes since 1960,collected and digitized 19 seismic intensity isoseismal maps,and acquired a total of 46 isoseismal data sets,including long axis,short axis,and total area,for a data total of 141.In accordance with the characteristics of historical isoseismals,the isoseismals were processed as ovals.In this study,the researcher looked at the epicenter distribution of earthquakes in Chongqing and the vicinity,the intensity data,and the distribution of seismic magnitude and intensity.Through regression analysis,an intensity distribution evaluation model was developed on the basis of the seismic intensity attenuation relationship,and the results from the model were compared with those from other models,which yielded a figure representing the comparison.The attenuation relationship of the earthquake in Chongqing and its adjacent area was compared with Suyun Wang,in China's eastern region;Jianqi Lu,in a moderate earthquake area,and Jiancheng Lei,in Sichuan Basin.To make the seismic intensity attenuation curve closer to the actual situation with respect to far-field and near-field intensity,additional measures were needed to improve the distribution of the data.Hence,the author developed intensity distribution evaluation models based on the length of the prolate axis and the minor axis,and area statistics.The author developed different fitting curves for(1) magnitude V long shaft fitting,(2) magnitude V short axial fitting,(3) magnitude VI long shaft fitting,and(4) magnitude VI short axial fitting.Comparisons were made with one magnitude degree above the intensity area,for the intensity I relationship,and for the length of shaft radius ratio.Last,the author used the examples to verify the above three kinds of models.The model based on the attenuation relationship and the model based on "Wang Jinglai" give intensity in two mutually perpendicular directions with distance attenuation,and the model based on the area is the seismic intensity distribution on the surface.The former two models are one-dimensional,and the third is two-dimensional.If an earthquake of grade IV or V happened in Chongqing and its adjacent areas,the author calculated three kinds of intensity distribution evaluation models,getting long and short axis radii.The first two models' calculation results were more closely matched and so are deemed the best by the author.Because the sample size is small,we will expand the research area in the next study to include a destructive earthquake region.Furthermore,we will include methods of data correction in the earthquake disaster loss assessment process in order to more closely approximate the true mean variance regression relationship.The shape of the intensity distribution curve was very significant for the earthquake disaster loss assessment.
引文
[1]张建福,成小平,姜立新,等.基于面积统计的震后烈度评估[J].自然灾害学报,2005,14(1):76-81.ZHANG Jian-fu,CHENG Xiao-ping,JIANG Li-xin,et al.Es-timation of Post-earthquake Intensity Based on Area Statistics[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2005,14(1):76-81.
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[3]王景来,宋志峰.地震灾害快速评估模型[J].地震研究,2001,24(2):162-167.WANG Jing-lai,SONG Zhi-feng.Model for Fast Serismic Dis-aster Assessment[J].Journal of Seismological Research,2001,24(2):162-167.
[4]俞言祥,汪素云.青藏高原东北地区水平向基岩加速度峰值与反应谱衰减关系[J].地震学报,2004,26(6):591-600.YU Yan-xiang,WANG Su-yun.Attenuation Relations forHorizontal Peak Gro-Und Acceleration and Response Spec-trum in Northeastern Tibetan Plateau Region[J].Acta Seis-mologica Sinica.,2004,26(6):591-600.
[5]雷建成,高孟潭,俞言祥.西南地区近代地震的震中烈度与有感半径的统计研究[J].震灾防御技术,2006,1(2):137-145.LEIJian-cheng,GAO Meng-tan,YU Yan-xiang.The StatisticalStudy on Near-epicenter Intensity and Sensible Radius of Re-cent Earthquakes in Southwest China[J].Technology forEarthquake Disaster Prevention,2006,1(2):137-145.
[6]汪素云,俞言祥.中国分区地震动衰减关系的确定[J].中国地震,2000,2(16):99-106.WANG Su-yun,YU Yan-xiang.Development of AttenuationRelations for Ground M oti0nin China[J].Earthquake Re-search in China,2000,2(16):99-106.
[7]卢建旗,李山有,李伟.中强地震活动区地震动衰减关系的确定[J].世界地震工程,2009,25(4):33-43.LU Jian-qi,LI Shan-you,LI Wei.Study on Ground MotionAttenuation Relationship of Moderate Earthquake Risk Areas[J].World Information On Earthquake Engineering,2009,25(4):33-43.
[8]雷建成,高孟潭,俞言祥.四川及邻区地震动衰减关系[J].地震学报,2007,29(5):500-511.LEI Jian-cheng,GAO Meng-tan,YU Yan-xiang.Seismic Mo-tion Attenuation Relations in Sichuan and Adjacent Areas[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,2007,29(5):500-511.
[9]孙继浩,帅向华.川滇及其邻区中强地震烈度衰减关系适用性研究[J].地震工程与工程震动,2011,31(1):11-18.SUN Ji-hao,SHUAI Xiang-hua.Study on Moderate-strongSeismic Intensity Attenuation Relations in Sichuan-Yunnanand Its Adjacent Areas[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engi-neering Vibration,2011,31(1):11-18.
[10]李英民,蔡辉腾,韩军,等.重庆及邻近地区地震烈度衰减关系研究[J].防灾及减灾工程学报,2007,27(1):17-22.LI Ying-min,CAI Hui-teng,HAN Jun.Study on Attenua-tion Relation of Seismic Intensity in Chongqing and Its Adja-cent Areas[J].Journal of Disaster Prevent and MitigationEngineering.2007,27(1):17-22.
[11]霍俊荣.近场强地面运动衰减规律的研究[D].哈尔滨:国家地震局工程力学研究所,1989.HUO Jun-rong.Study on Attenuation of Near Field StrongGround Motion[D].Mechanical Engineering Inst of the StateBureau of Seismology,1989.
[12]石树中,沈建文.上海及邻区地震烈度衰减规律研究[J].防灾减灾工程学报,2003,23(1):50-54.SHI Shu-zhong,SHEN Jian-wen.A Study of Seismic Inten-sity Attenuation Law in Vicinity of Shanghai[J].Journal ofDisaster Prevention and Mitigation Engineering,2003,23(1):50-54.
[13]葛智渊,李东平.基于的浙江省地震快速评估模型构建研究[J].华北地震科学,2009,27(3):12-16.GE Zhi-yuan,LI Dong-ping.Study on Model Building forFast Seismic Disaster Assessment Based on GIS[J].NorthChina Earthquake Sciences,2009,27(3):12-16.
[14]姚凯,孙崇绍,朱珊珊,等.2008年汶川地震后的三次强余震地表峰值加速度衰减场研究[J].西北地震学报,2012,34(1):99-104.YAO Kai,SUN Chong-shao,ZHU Shan-shan,et al.Studyon PGA Attenuation of Three Strong Aftershocks of 2008Wenchuan Earthquake[J].Northwestern Seismological Jour-nal,2012,34(1):99-104.
[15]刘双庆,聂永安,高武平,等.Matlab在天津市强震动台网烈度速报中的应用[J].西北地震学报,2012,34(4):405-412.LIU Shuang-qing,NIE Yong-an,GAO Wu-ping.et al.Ap-plication of Matlab Software on Intensity Rapid Report ofTianjin Strong Motion Network[J].Northwestern Seismo-logical Journal,2012,34(4):405-412.
[2]丁仁杰,李克昌.重庆地震研究[M].北京:地震出版社,2004.DING Ren-jie,LI Ke-chang.Earthquake Research inChongqing[M].Beijing:Seismological Press,2004.
[3]王景来,宋志峰.地震灾害快速评估模型[J].地震研究,2001,24(2):162-167.WANG Jing-lai,SONG Zhi-feng.Model for Fast Serismic Dis-aster Assessment[J].Journal of Seismological Research,2001,24(2):162-167.
[4]俞言祥,汪素云.青藏高原东北地区水平向基岩加速度峰值与反应谱衰减关系[J].地震学报,2004,26(6):591-600.YU Yan-xiang,WANG Su-yun.Attenuation Relations forHorizontal Peak Gro-Und Acceleration and Response Spec-trum in Northeastern Tibetan Plateau Region[J].Acta Seis-mologica Sinica.,2004,26(6):591-600.
[5]雷建成,高孟潭,俞言祥.西南地区近代地震的震中烈度与有感半径的统计研究[J].震灾防御技术,2006,1(2):137-145.LEIJian-cheng,GAO Meng-tan,YU Yan-xiang.The StatisticalStudy on Near-epicenter Intensity and Sensible Radius of Re-cent Earthquakes in Southwest China[J].Technology forEarthquake Disaster Prevention,2006,1(2):137-145.
[6]汪素云,俞言祥.中国分区地震动衰减关系的确定[J].中国地震,2000,2(16):99-106.WANG Su-yun,YU Yan-xiang.Development of AttenuationRelations for Ground M oti0nin China[J].Earthquake Re-search in China,2000,2(16):99-106.
[7]卢建旗,李山有,李伟.中强地震活动区地震动衰减关系的确定[J].世界地震工程,2009,25(4):33-43.LU Jian-qi,LI Shan-you,LI Wei.Study on Ground MotionAttenuation Relationship of Moderate Earthquake Risk Areas[J].World Information On Earthquake Engineering,2009,25(4):33-43.
[8]雷建成,高孟潭,俞言祥.四川及邻区地震动衰减关系[J].地震学报,2007,29(5):500-511.LEI Jian-cheng,GAO Meng-tan,YU Yan-xiang.Seismic Mo-tion Attenuation Relations in Sichuan and Adjacent Areas[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,2007,29(5):500-511.
[9]孙继浩,帅向华.川滇及其邻区中强地震烈度衰减关系适用性研究[J].地震工程与工程震动,2011,31(1):11-18.SUN Ji-hao,SHUAI Xiang-hua.Study on Moderate-strongSeismic Intensity Attenuation Relations in Sichuan-Yunnanand Its Adjacent Areas[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engi-neering Vibration,2011,31(1):11-18.
[10]李英民,蔡辉腾,韩军,等.重庆及邻近地区地震烈度衰减关系研究[J].防灾及减灾工程学报,2007,27(1):17-22.LI Ying-min,CAI Hui-teng,HAN Jun.Study on Attenua-tion Relation of Seismic Intensity in Chongqing and Its Adja-cent Areas[J].Journal of Disaster Prevent and MitigationEngineering.2007,27(1):17-22.
[11]霍俊荣.近场强地面运动衰减规律的研究[D].哈尔滨:国家地震局工程力学研究所,1989.HUO Jun-rong.Study on Attenuation of Near Field StrongGround Motion[D].Mechanical Engineering Inst of the StateBureau of Seismology,1989.
[12]石树中,沈建文.上海及邻区地震烈度衰减规律研究[J].防灾减灾工程学报,2003,23(1):50-54.SHI Shu-zhong,SHEN Jian-wen.A Study of Seismic Inten-sity Attenuation Law in Vicinity of Shanghai[J].Journal ofDisaster Prevention and Mitigation Engineering,2003,23(1):50-54.
[13]葛智渊,李东平.基于的浙江省地震快速评估模型构建研究[J].华北地震科学,2009,27(3):12-16.GE Zhi-yuan,LI Dong-ping.Study on Model Building forFast Seismic Disaster Assessment Based on GIS[J].NorthChina Earthquake Sciences,2009,27(3):12-16.
[14]姚凯,孙崇绍,朱珊珊,等.2008年汶川地震后的三次强余震地表峰值加速度衰减场研究[J].西北地震学报,2012,34(1):99-104.YAO Kai,SUN Chong-shao,ZHU Shan-shan,et al.Studyon PGA Attenuation of Three Strong Aftershocks of 2008Wenchuan Earthquake[J].Northwestern Seismological Jour-nal,2012,34(1):99-104.
[15]刘双庆,聂永安,高武平,等.Matlab在天津市强震动台网烈度速报中的应用[J].西北地震学报,2012,34(4):405-412.LIU Shuang-qing,NIE Yong-an,GAO Wu-ping.et al.Ap-plication of Matlab Software on Intensity Rapid Report ofTianjin Strong Motion Network[J].Northwestern Seismo-logical Journal,2012,34(4):405-412.
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