福建地区前兆资料的信息熵空间扫描特征
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摘要
在较大地震的孕育过程中,随着弹性应变能的不断积累,孕震区有可能从原来的无序状态转变为一种在时间、空间上的有序状态,与之相联系的各种信息量的有序程度都有可能增加。本文引入信息熵来描述前兆观测资料的空间扫描特征:结果表明:在4次福建地区中等地震前半个月至2个月,在未来震中附近围成异常区域,但异常表现各不相同,异常区和异常量的大小与震级无明显关系,震后异常区域均消失;在4次地震中,有1次地震发生在信息熵空间扫描围出的异常区内,另外3次地震虽然不发生在异常区域内,但震中都处于异常区域边缘,最大距离不超过50km以内,这为判定震中位置提供了一定的依据。
In the preparing process of large earthquakes and with continuing accumulation of elastic strain energy,the seismic zone may be changed from the original status as a disorder in time and space to an ordered state,and various information associated with the change are likely to increase the degree of order.In this paper,information entropy is introduced to describe the space scanning features of precursor observations.The results show that ① Future anomalous areas are formed near the epicenter before half to 2 months of 4 moderate earthquakes occurred in Fujian region,but there are no relationship between magnitude and sizes of anomalous areas,anomaly,anomalous areas disappeared after the earthquake;② In the 4 earthquakes,two earthquakes occurred in the abnormal areas of information entropy scanning,although the other two earthquakes occurred in the abnormal area,but the epicenter distance to abnormal central area are less than 100 km.
In the preparing process of large earthquakes and with continuing accumulation of elastic strain energy,the seismic zone may be changed from the original status as a disorder in time and space to an ordered state,and various information associated with the change are likely to increase the degree of order.In this paper,information entropy is introduced to describe the space scanning features of precursor observations.The results show that ① Future anomalous areas are formed near the epicenter before half to 2 months of 4 moderate earthquakes occurred in Fujian region,but there are no relationship between magnitude and sizes of anomalous areas,anomaly,anomalous areas disappeared after the earthquake;② In the 4 earthquakes,two earthquakes occurred in the abnormal areas of information entropy scanning,although the other two earthquakes occurred in the abnormal area,but the epicenter distance to abnormal central area are less than 100 km.
引文
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[2]李圣强,杜建国,康春丽,信息熵在地下流体资料处理中的应用[J],华北地震科学,2001,2:1-7.
[3]张清秀,陈智勇,林穆金.信息熵在水氡处理中的应用[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2009,3:63-68.
[4]许绍燮.地震预报能力评分[M].北京:地震出版社.1989.
[5]陆远忠,陈章立,王碧泉,等.地震预报的地震学方法[M].北京:地震出版社.1985.
[6]朱传镇,王林瑛.地震活动熵值及其在地震危险性估计中的应用[J].地震,1988,4:34-36.
[7]朱令人.大地震前地震信息熵的异常—以乌恰地震为例[J].地震地质,1988,2:29-37.
[8]傅献彩,沈文霞,姚天扬著.平衡统计热力学[M].北京:高等教育出版社.1994.
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