强震预报风险评估模型及应用研究
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摘要
强震预报是一项风险决策,在发布前采取定性定量的方法对其风险进行评估,根据评估结果为政府决策提供科学的依据,减少地震灾害可能引起的损失。从人口疏散、地震应急备灾、社会企业停产、社会秩序维护等方面归纳了地震预报可能带来的损失,构建了计算模型,并算了阳江市设定6.0级地震、盈江5.8级地震、丽江7.0级地震的预报造成损失,对比地震实际损失值。计算结果显示:预报损失评估模型可为政府决策提供参考,指出政府根据地震预报信息进行风险决策时,要考虑目标区的经济发展水平。
It is a risk decision to predict strong earhquakes. If the risk is assessed using quantitative and qualitative methods and the scientific basis according to the assessment is provided for the government decision making before announcing, then the possible loss caused by earthquake can be reduced. We sum up the possible losses caused by earthquake prediction from aspects of people evacuation, disaster response and preparedness, stopping production of social enterprises and maintenance of social order. A calculation model is constructed and the losses of predicting the given M6.0 Yangjiang, M5.8 Yingjiang and M7.0 Lijiang earthquakes are calculated in comparison with the real earthquake losses. The results show that the assessment model for loss of prediction could provide reference for government decision making, and the level of economic development of the target area should be considered when the government makes a risk decision according to the earthquake prediction information.
It is a risk decision to predict strong earhquakes. If the risk is assessed using quantitative and qualitative methods and the scientific basis according to the assessment is provided for the government decision making before announcing, then the possible loss caused by earthquake can be reduced. We sum up the possible losses caused by earthquake prediction from aspects of people evacuation, disaster response and preparedness, stopping production of social enterprises and maintenance of social order. A calculation model is constructed and the losses of predicting the given M6.0 Yangjiang, M5.8 Yingjiang and M7.0 Lijiang earthquakes are calculated in comparison with the real earthquake losses. The results show that the assessment model for loss of prediction could provide reference for government decision making, and the level of economic development of the target area should be considered when the government makes a risk decision according to the earthquake prediction information.
引文
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[4]曲国胜,李亦纲,宁宝坤,等.我国城市地震灾害风险评估及其在城市规划和管理中的应用[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2004,增刊:45-54.
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[9]孙加林.我国沿海经济发达地区的地震预报对策[J].华南地震,2000,20(3):76-78.
[2]黄崇福,史培军.城市地震灾害风险评价的数学模型[J].自然灾害学报,2001,10(3):56-63.
[3]聂高众,高建国,马宗晋,等.中国未来10-15年地震灾害的风险评估[J].自然灾害学报,2002,11(1):68-73.
[4]曲国胜,李亦纲,宁宝坤,等.我国城市地震灾害风险评估及其在城市规划和管理中的应用[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2004,增刊:45-54.
[5]谭承业.发布地震告警的一个判据-各类地震死亡人数预测[J].中国地震,1989,5(4):81-87.
[6]孙寿成,吴秀华.关于发布地震预报的抉择[J].地震学刊,2001,21(2):44-49.
[7]邹其嘉.地震预报决策与风险矩阵[J].地震学报,1993,15(2):232-238.
[8]郑更新,何伟.地震预报决策的Bayes分析[J].北京工业大学学报.2000,26(4):99-104.
[9]孙加林.我国沿海经济发达地区的地震预报对策[J].华南地震,2000,20(3):76-78.
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