中国区域防震减灾能力的综合评估
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摘要
以科学认识中国防震减灾能力的区域差异,实现中国防震减灾资源的合理配置为目标,从绝对和相对2个层面分析了区域防震减灾能力的内涵,进而构建了围绕1个目标层,设定3个准则层、13个指标层和16个变量层的区域绝对防震减灾能力的评价指标体系;分别提出了区域绝对和相对防震减灾能力的评估模型,并绘制了中国区域绝对和相对防震减灾能力分布图。结果表明,中国区域绝对和相对防震减灾能力都存在着明显的区域差异,前者与后者之间的分布特征也是截然不同的,即绝对能力表现为东部地区普遍高于全国平均能力水平,中部和西北部地区大多持平或低于全国平均能力水平,青藏高原地区最低;而相对能力则表现为能力低值区集中分布于华北、南北地震带、东南沿海和东北平原等地。
Aimed to scientifically allocate the earthquake prevention and disaster reduction resources,this paper firstly analyzes the definition of regional earthquake prevention and disaster reduction ability of China from the absolute and relative two levels:The former is a regional function to prevent from earthquake attacking and to reduce disaster losses which are determined by the region's various characteristics such as natural,economic,social and culture conditions,while the latter,based on the former,is the disaster-reduction capacities according to the earthquake disaster loss.Then,the paper constructs the evaluation index system for the absolute ability of China,which includes one object layer,three rule layers,thirteen factor layers and sixteen variable layers.Finally,the study puts forward the comprehensive assessment of absolute ability and relative ability and draws the contribution maps of them.The result shows that there are obvious regional differences of both the absolute ability and the relative ability in China.Meanwhile,there exist obvious regional differences between them.The former shows that the ability in eastern region is generally higher than the national average ability,the central and northwestern areas are equal or lower than it,and Tibetan plateau region is the lowest,which is closely related with the distribution characteristics of different regional economic development levels.While for the latter,either in terms of relative ability against the earthquake deaths or relative ability against earthquake economic loss,the low value areas are concentrated in the North China plain,north-south seismic belt,southeast coast and Northeast China plain,which is mainly determined by the matching pattern between the absolute capabilities and the future earthquake damage.
Aimed to scientifically allocate the earthquake prevention and disaster reduction resources,this paper firstly analyzes the definition of regional earthquake prevention and disaster reduction ability of China from the absolute and relative two levels:The former is a regional function to prevent from earthquake attacking and to reduce disaster losses which are determined by the region's various characteristics such as natural,economic,social and culture conditions,while the latter,based on the former,is the disaster-reduction capacities according to the earthquake disaster loss.Then,the paper constructs the evaluation index system for the absolute ability of China,which includes one object layer,three rule layers,thirteen factor layers and sixteen variable layers.Finally,the study puts forward the comprehensive assessment of absolute ability and relative ability and draws the contribution maps of them.The result shows that there are obvious regional differences of both the absolute ability and the relative ability in China.Meanwhile,there exist obvious regional differences between them.The former shows that the ability in eastern region is generally higher than the national average ability,the central and northwestern areas are equal or lower than it,and Tibetan plateau region is the lowest,which is closely related with the distribution characteristics of different regional economic development levels.While for the latter,either in terms of relative ability against the earthquake deaths or relative ability against earthquake economic loss,the low value areas are concentrated in the North China plain,north-south seismic belt,southeast coast and Northeast China plain,which is mainly determined by the matching pattern between the absolute capabilities and the future earthquake damage.
引文
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李曼,邓砚,苏桂武.2012.基于问卷调查的四川民众地震灾害响应能力分区评价[J].灾害学,27(2):140—144 .LI Man,DENG Yan,SU Gui-wu.2012.Assessment of the regional earthquake disaster response capabilities of the social public in Sichuan based on questionnaire survey[J].Journal of Catastrophology,27(2):140—144(in Chinese).
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苏桂武,马宗晋,王若嘉,等.2008.汶川地震灾区民众认知与响应地震灾害的特点及其减灾宣教意义:以四川省德阳市为例[J].地震地质,30(4):877—894.SU Gui-wu,MA Zong-ji,WANG Ruo-jia,et al.2008.General features and their disaster-reduction education implications of the earthquake disaster cognition and responses of the social public in M S8 .0 Wenchuan earthquake-hit area:A case study from Deyan prefecture-level city,Sichuan Province[J].Seismology and Geology,30(4):877—894(in Chinese).
吴新燕,顾建华.2007.国内外城市灾害应急能力评价的研究进展[J].自然灾害学报,16(6):109—114.WU Xin-yan,GU Jian-hua.2007.Advance in research on urban emergency management capability assessment at home and abroad[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,16(6):109—114(in Chinese).
杨青,田依林,宋英华.2007.基于过程管理的城市灾害应急管理综合能力评价体系研究[J].中国行政管理,(3):103—106.YANG Qing,TIAN Yi-lin,SONG Ying-hua.2007.Comprehensive capability evaluation system of the urban disaster emergency management based on process management[J].Chinese Public Administration,(3):103—106(in Chinese).
①中国地震局地质研究所,2012,中国重大地震灾害及其次生地质灾害风险图集。
高庆华,张业成,刘惠敏,等.2006.中国区域减灾基础能力初步研究[M].北京:气象出版社.52.GAO Qing-hua,ZHANG Ye-cheng,LIU Hui-min,et al.2006.A Preliminary Study on the Regional Disaster Reduction Ability in China[M].China Meteorological Press,Beijing.52(in Chinese).
国务院人口普查办公室,国家统计局人口和社会科技统计司.2003.2000年人口普查分县资料[M].北京:中国统计出版社.The Census Office of State Council,National Bureau of Statistics,Statistics Division of Population and Social Science and Technology.2003.The 2000 Census Data of Counties[M].China Statistics Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
国家统计局农村社会经济调查司.2009.中国县(市)社会经济统计年鉴2009[M].北京:中国统计出版社.Rural Social and Economic Investigation Department of National Bureau of Statistics of China.2009.China County(City)Socio-economic Statistical Yearbook 2009[M].China Statistics Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
李曼,邓砚,苏桂武.2012.基于问卷调查的四川民众地震灾害响应能力分区评价[J].灾害学,27(2):140—144 .LI Man,DENG Yan,SU Gui-wu.2012.Assessment of the regional earthquake disaster response capabilities of the social public in Sichuan based on questionnaire survey[J].Journal of Catastrophology,27(2):140—144(in Chinese).
牛冲槐,任朝江,白建新,等.2003.突发性公共事件中政府应急能力的测定[J].太原理工大学学报(社会科学版),21(4):21—25.NIU Chong-huai,REN Chao-jiang,BAI Jian-xin,et al.2003.The measurement of the government's emergency-dealing ability in unexpected public accidents[J].Journal of Taiyuan University of Technology(Social Sciences Edition),21 (4):21—25(in Chinese).
苏桂武,马宗晋,王若嘉,等.2008.汶川地震灾区民众认知与响应地震灾害的特点及其减灾宣教意义:以四川省德阳市为例[J].地震地质,30(4):877—894.SU Gui-wu,MA Zong-ji,WANG Ruo-jia,et al.2008.General features and their disaster-reduction education implications of the earthquake disaster cognition and responses of the social public in M S8 .0 Wenchuan earthquake-hit area:A case study from Deyan prefecture-level city,Sichuan Province[J].Seismology and Geology,30(4):877—894(in Chinese).
吴新燕,顾建华.2007.国内外城市灾害应急能力评价的研究进展[J].自然灾害学报,16(6):109—114.WU Xin-yan,GU Jian-hua.2007.Advance in research on urban emergency management capability assessment at home and abroad[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,16(6):109—114(in Chinese).
杨青,田依林,宋英华.2007.基于过程管理的城市灾害应急管理综合能力评价体系研究[J].中国行政管理,(3):103—106.YANG Qing,TIAN Yi-lin,SONG Ying-hua.2007.Comprehensive capability evaluation system of the urban disaster emergency management based on process management[J].Chinese Public Administration,(3):103—106(in Chinese).
①中国地震局地质研究所,2012,中国重大地震灾害及其次生地质灾害风险图集。
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