中国与美国抗震设防区划图的比较
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摘要
虽然地震危险性概率分析法(PSHA)都被中国和美国用于编制抗震设防区划图,但是该方法存在严重的缺陷,特别是无量纲的年超越概率被当作有量纲的超越频率(1/年),其结果(即地震灾害曲线与强地面运动区划图)的物理与统计意义不明确,不能与实际地震进行对比。地震危险性概率分析是不适用于地震危险性评估的,特别是编制抗震设防区划图。实际经验表明地震危险性确定分析法(DSHA)是更适用于地震危险性评估的,特别是编制抗震设防区划图。确定分析法的优点在于所得到的结果具有明确的物理和统计意义,并可以与实际地震进行对比。
Although probabilistic seismic hazard analysis( PSHA) has been used both in China and the United States for developing the national seismic design maps,PSHA is scientifically flawed,especially the dimensionless quantity( i. e.,the annual probability of exceedance) is used as a dimensional quantity( i. e.,the frequency or rate of exceedance) with the unit of( 1 / year). The results from PSHA( i. e.,hazard curves and maps) are all artifacts and cannot be compared with the actual earthquake observations. PSHA should not be used for seismic hazard assessment,in particular developing the seismic design maps. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis( DSHA) has been proved to be a viable approach for seismic hazard assessment,in particular developing the seismic design maps. The results from DSHA have clear physical and statistical meanings and can be compared with actual earthquake observations.
Although probabilistic seismic hazard analysis( PSHA) has been used both in China and the United States for developing the national seismic design maps,PSHA is scientifically flawed,especially the dimensionless quantity( i. e.,the annual probability of exceedance) is used as a dimensional quantity( i. e.,the frequency or rate of exceedance) with the unit of( 1 / year). The results from PSHA( i. e.,hazard curves and maps) are all artifacts and cannot be compared with the actual earthquake observations. PSHA should not be used for seismic hazard assessment,in particular developing the seismic design maps. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis( DSHA) has been proved to be a viable approach for seismic hazard assessment,in particular developing the seismic design maps. The results from DSHA have clear physical and statistical meanings and can be compared with actual earthquake observations.
引文
[1]Frankel,A.,Mueller,C.,Barnhard,T.,Perkins,D.,Leyendecker,E.,Dickman,N.,Hanson,S.,and Hopper,M.,1996,National seismic hazard maps:Documentation June 1996:U.S.Geological Survey Open-File Report 96-532,110.
[2]Petersen,M.D.,Frankel,A.D.,Harmsen,S.C.,Mueller,C.S.,Haller,K.M.,Wheeler,R.L.,Wesson,R.L.,Zeng,Y.,Boyd,O.S.,Perkins,D.M.,Luco,N.,Field,E.H.,Wills,C.J.,and Rukstales,K.S.,2008,Documentation for the 2008 update of the United States national seismic hazard maps:U.S.Geological Survey Open-File Report 08-1128,60.
[3]Building Seismic Safety Council(BSSC),1998,NEHRP recommended provisions for seismic regulations for new buildings[1997 ed.]:Federal Emergency Management Agency,FEMA 302,337.
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[5]International Building Code Council(IBCC),2012,International building code:678.
[6]Stein,S.,2010,Disaster deferred:New York,Columbia University Press,282.
[7]Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction(ACEHR),2011,National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program(NEHRP)bicentennial statement,February 11,2011,2.
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[10]Wang,Z.,2009,Seismic hazard vs.seismic risk:Seismological Research Letters,80,673-674.
[11]Wang,Z.,2011,Seismic hazard assessment:Issues and alternatives:Pure and Applied Geophysics,168,11-25.
[12]刘静伟,王振明,谢富仁,吕悦军,2014.大华北地区地震灾害与风险评估.地震工程学报(待刊).
[13]Gupta,R.S.,1989,Hydrology and hydraulic systems,Englewood Cliffs,N.J.,Prentice Hall,739.
[14]Sachs,P.,1978,Wind forces in engineering[2nd Ed.],Elmsford,N.Y.Pergamon Press Inc.,400.
[15]Kircher,C.A.,Nassar,A.A.,Kustu,O.,and Holmes,W.T.,1997,Development of building damage functions for earthquake loss estimation:Earthquake Spectra,v.13,p.663-682.
[16]Cornell,C.A.,1968,Engineering seismic risk analysis:Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,v.58,p.1583-1606.
[17]Mc Guire,R.K.,2008,Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis:Early history:Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics,v.37,329-338.
[18]Anderson,G.A.,and Brune,J.N.,1999,Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis without the ergodic assumption:Seismological Research Letters,v.70,p.19-28.
[19]Wang,Z.,2005,Comment on J.U.Klügel’s“Problems in the Application of the SSHAC Probability Method for Assessing Earthquake Hazards at Swiss Nuclear Power Plants”:Engineering Geology,v.82,p.86-88.
[20]Wang,Z.,2006,Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis:problem and correction,Northwestern Seismological Journal,v.28:289-297.
[21]Wang,Z.,and Zhou,M.,2007,Comment on“Why Do Modern Probabilistic Seismic-Hazard Analyses Often Lead to Increased Hazard Estimates?”by Julian J.Bommer and Norman A.Abrahamson:Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,v.97,p.2212-2214.
[22]Wang,Z.,and Cobb,J.C.,2012,A critique of probabilistic versus deterministic seismic hazard analysis with special reference to the New Madrid seismic zone,in Cox,R.T.,Tuttle,M.P.,Boyd,O.S.,and Locat,J.,eds.,Recent Advances in North American Paleoseismology and Neotectonics East of the Rockies:Geological Society of America Special Paper 493,p.259–275,doi:10.1130/2012.2493(13).
[23]潘华,高孟潭,谢富仁,2013.新版地震区划图地震活动性摸型与参数确定.震害防御技术,8(1):11$23.
[24]International Conference of Building Officials,1997.Uniform Building Code,Volume 2.492.
[25]Wang,Z.2010.Ground Motion for the Maximum Credible Earthquake in Kentucky,Kentucky Geological Survey,ser.12,Report of Investigations22,9.
[26]Wang,Z.,Butler,D.,Woolery,E.W.,and Wang,L.,2012,Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Tianshui Urban Area,Gansu Province,China,International Journal of Geophysics.10.
[27]刘静伟,王振明,谢富仁.京津唐地区地震灾害与危险性评估[J].地球物理学报,2010,53(2):318-325.
[2]Petersen,M.D.,Frankel,A.D.,Harmsen,S.C.,Mueller,C.S.,Haller,K.M.,Wheeler,R.L.,Wesson,R.L.,Zeng,Y.,Boyd,O.S.,Perkins,D.M.,Luco,N.,Field,E.H.,Wills,C.J.,and Rukstales,K.S.,2008,Documentation for the 2008 update of the United States national seismic hazard maps:U.S.Geological Survey Open-File Report 08-1128,60.
[3]Building Seismic Safety Council(BSSC),1998,NEHRP recommended provisions for seismic regulations for new buildings[1997 ed.]:Federal Emergency Management Agency,FEMA 302,337.
[4]Building Seismic Safety Council(BSSC),2009,NEHRP recommended provisions for seismic regulations for new buildings[2009 ed.]:Federal Emergency Management Agency,FEMA P-750,372.
[5]International Building Code Council(IBCC),2012,International building code:678.
[6]Stein,S.,2010,Disaster deferred:New York,Columbia University Press,282.
[7]Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction(ACEHR),2011,National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program(NEHRP)bicentennial statement,February 11,2011,2.
[8]国家质量技术监督局,2001.中国地震动参数区划图(GB 18306-2001).北京:中国标准出版社.
[9]胡聿贤主编,1999.地震安全性评价技术教程.北京:地震出版社.
[10]Wang,Z.,2009,Seismic hazard vs.seismic risk:Seismological Research Letters,80,673-674.
[11]Wang,Z.,2011,Seismic hazard assessment:Issues and alternatives:Pure and Applied Geophysics,168,11-25.
[12]刘静伟,王振明,谢富仁,吕悦军,2014.大华北地区地震灾害与风险评估.地震工程学报(待刊).
[13]Gupta,R.S.,1989,Hydrology and hydraulic systems,Englewood Cliffs,N.J.,Prentice Hall,739.
[14]Sachs,P.,1978,Wind forces in engineering[2nd Ed.],Elmsford,N.Y.Pergamon Press Inc.,400.
[15]Kircher,C.A.,Nassar,A.A.,Kustu,O.,and Holmes,W.T.,1997,Development of building damage functions for earthquake loss estimation:Earthquake Spectra,v.13,p.663-682.
[16]Cornell,C.A.,1968,Engineering seismic risk analysis:Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,v.58,p.1583-1606.
[17]Mc Guire,R.K.,2008,Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis:Early history:Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics,v.37,329-338.
[18]Anderson,G.A.,and Brune,J.N.,1999,Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis without the ergodic assumption:Seismological Research Letters,v.70,p.19-28.
[19]Wang,Z.,2005,Comment on J.U.Klügel’s“Problems in the Application of the SSHAC Probability Method for Assessing Earthquake Hazards at Swiss Nuclear Power Plants”:Engineering Geology,v.82,p.86-88.
[20]Wang,Z.,2006,Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis:problem and correction,Northwestern Seismological Journal,v.28:289-297.
[21]Wang,Z.,and Zhou,M.,2007,Comment on“Why Do Modern Probabilistic Seismic-Hazard Analyses Often Lead to Increased Hazard Estimates?”by Julian J.Bommer and Norman A.Abrahamson:Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,v.97,p.2212-2214.
[22]Wang,Z.,and Cobb,J.C.,2012,A critique of probabilistic versus deterministic seismic hazard analysis with special reference to the New Madrid seismic zone,in Cox,R.T.,Tuttle,M.P.,Boyd,O.S.,and Locat,J.,eds.,Recent Advances in North American Paleoseismology and Neotectonics East of the Rockies:Geological Society of America Special Paper 493,p.259–275,doi:10.1130/2012.2493(13).
[23]潘华,高孟潭,谢富仁,2013.新版地震区划图地震活动性摸型与参数确定.震害防御技术,8(1):11$23.
[24]International Conference of Building Officials,1997.Uniform Building Code,Volume 2.492.
[25]Wang,Z.2010.Ground Motion for the Maximum Credible Earthquake in Kentucky,Kentucky Geological Survey,ser.12,Report of Investigations22,9.
[26]Wang,Z.,Butler,D.,Woolery,E.W.,and Wang,L.,2012,Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Tianshui Urban Area,Gansu Province,China,International Journal of Geophysics.10.
[27]刘静伟,王振明,谢富仁.京津唐地区地震灾害与危险性评估[J].地球物理学报,2010,53(2):318-325.
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