中国地震灾害宏观人口脆弱性评估
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摘要
地震灾害脆弱性不但是国家和地区中长期规划的基础,也是地震应急时的重要决策依据,因此地震灾害脆弱性评估是当前研究的热点和重点。本文首先介绍了地震灾害人口脆弱性定义,指出了地震灾害人口脆弱性的影响因子和影响模式;然后通过分析传统地震灾害人口脆弱性的宏观和微观评价方法和模型,利用人口总量、儿童人口比例、老年人口比例、人口密度和人均GDP 5个指标建立了地震灾害宏观人口脆弱性综合评价模型,并对全国各县市区的人口脆弱性进行了评估。结果表明:中国地震灾害人口脆弱性区域差异明显,东部地区人口脆弱性明显高于西部;人口总量是脆弱性的主要因素,宏观人口脆弱性综合评估模型对地震灾害人口脆弱性的修正作用显著。
Seismic vulnerability assessment is not only the basis for a long-term planning,but also provides support for emergency decision-making in earthquake emergency,therefore it is a focus in current research of vulnerability.First,this paper introduced the definition of seismic population vulnerability,and proposed its vulnerability factors and influence patterns.Second,after researching the macro and micro assessment models and methods of seismic population vulnerability,the macro assessment model of seismic population vulnerability was established by using five indicators,which are the total population,proportion of the young,proportion of the the old,population density and per capita GDP.The seismic population vulnerability at county level was assessed across China.The results showed that the differences of seismic population vulnerability were significant,the vulnerability in the eastern region was higher than that in the western,and the total population was the key factor.The assessment model designed in this paper had a significant effect on the amendment to the population vulnerability of the earthquake.
Seismic vulnerability assessment is not only the basis for a long-term planning,but also provides support for emergency decision-making in earthquake emergency,therefore it is a focus in current research of vulnerability.First,this paper introduced the definition of seismic population vulnerability,and proposed its vulnerability factors and influence patterns.Second,after researching the macro and micro assessment models and methods of seismic population vulnerability,the macro assessment model of seismic population vulnerability was established by using five indicators,which are the total population,proportion of the young,proportion of the the old,population density and per capita GDP.The seismic population vulnerability at county level was assessed across China.The results showed that the differences of seismic population vulnerability were significant,the vulnerability in the eastern region was higher than that in the western,and the total population was the key factor.The assessment model designed in this paper had a significant effect on the amendment to the population vulnerability of the earthquake.
引文
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[26]Chen Yong,Chen Qifu,Chen Ling.Vulnerability analysis in earthquake loss estimate.Natural Hazards,2001,23(2-3):349-364
[27]孙林松,蒋能强.我国地震人员伤亡预测研究及问题讨论.国际地震动态,1993(10):9-14.
[28]国家地震局灾害防御司未来地震灾害损失预测研究组.中国地震灾害损失预测研究.北京:地震出版社,1990.
[29]王飞,蒋建群.城市地震灾害综合易损性分析方法探讨.地震研究,2005,28(1):95-101.
[30]马玉宏,谢礼立.地震人员伤亡估算方法研究.地震工程与工程振动,2000,20(4):140-147.
[31]刘吉夫,陈颙,史培军,等.中国大陆地震风险分析模型研究:生命易损性模型.北京师范大学学报,2009,45(4):404-407.
[32]国家减灾委员会科学技术部抗震救灾专家组.汶川地震灾害综合分析与评价.北京:科学出版社,2008.
[33]葛全胜,方修琦,叶谦,等.全球环境变化视角下中国粮食、水与健康安全问题研究.北京:气象出版社,2011.
[2]黄崇福.自然灾害风险评价理论与实践.北京:科学出版社,2005.
[3]史培军.四论灾害系统研究的理论与实践.自然灾害学报,2005,14(6):1-7.
[4]Cutter S L,Mitchell J T,ScottM S.Revealing the vulnera-bility of people and places:A case study of Georgetown County,South Carolina.Annals of the Association ofAmerican Geographers,2000,90(4):713-737.
[5]郑通彦,李洋,侯建盛,等.2008年中国大陆地震灾害损失述评.灾害学,2010,25(2):112-118.
[6]李智,王晓青.地震震害微观与宏观方法快速盲估综述.地震,2010,30(2):134-142.
[7]周光全,毛燕,施伟华.云南地区地震受灾人口与经济损失评估.地震研究,2004,27(1):88-93.
[8]ISDR.Living with risk:A Global Review of Disaster Re-duction Initiatives.Geneva,Switzerland:United Nations,International Strategy for Disaster Reduction,2004.
[9]UNDP.Human development report2004:cultural liberty in today’s diverse world.New York,United Nation De-velopment Programme,2004.
[10]Davis I.The Effectiveness of Current Tools for the Identi-fication,Measurement,Analysis and Synthesis of Vulner-ability and Disaster Risk,IDB/IDEA Program of Indica-tors for Risk Management,National University of Colom-bia,Manizales,2003.
[11]IDEA System of Indicators for Disaster Risk Manage-ment:Program for Latin American and the Caribbean.Main Technical Report.IDB/IDEA Program of Indicators for Disaster Risk Management,National University of Colombia,Manizales,2005.
[12]葛全胜,邹铭,郑景云,等.中国自然灾害风险综合评估初步研究.北京:科学出版社,2008.
[13]杨挺.城市局部地震灾害危害性指数(ULEDRI)及其在上海市的应用.北京:中国地震局地球物理研究所,2000.
[14]Shang Y R.Seismic disaster vulnerability analysis:Tak-ing Zhangbei-Shangyi earthquake disaster in Hebei Prov-ince as an Example.Journal of Geological Hazards and Environment Preservation,1999,10(2):37-43.
[15]王飞,蒋建群.城市地震灾害综合易损性分析方法探讨.地震研究,2005,28(1):95-101.
[16]苏桂武,朱林,马宗晋,等.京津唐地区地震灾害区域宏观脆弱性变化的初步研究:空间变化.地震地质,2007,29(1):25-33.
[17]科技部、国家计委、国家经贸委灾害综合研究组.灾害社会减灾发展:中国百年自然灾害态势与21世纪减灾策略分析.北京:气象出版社,2000.
[18]Wisner B.Turning knowledge into timely and appropriate action:Reflections on IADB/IDEA program of disaster risk indicators,IDB/IDEA Program of Indicators for Risk Management,National University of Colombia,Maniza-les,2003.
[19]马玉宏,赵桂峰.地震灾害风险分析及管理.北京:科学出版社,2008.
[20]邹其嘉,毛国敏,孙振凯,等.地震人员伤亡易损性研究.自然灾害学报,1995,4(3):60-68.
[21]陈颙,陈棋福,陈凌,等.地震损失预测评估中的易损性分析.中国地震,1999,15(2):97-105.
[22]周光全,毛燕,施伟华.云南地区地震受灾人口与经济损失评估.地震研究,2004,27(1):88-93.
[23]ATC(Applied Technology Council).Earthquake damage evaluation data for California(ATC213).Redwood City,California:Applied Technology Commission,1985.
[24]Whitman R V.Damage probability matrices for prototype buildings.Massachusetts Institute of Technology Depart-ment of Civil Engineering Research Report R73257.Cambridge:Massachusetts,1973.
[25]陈颙,刘杰,陈棋福,等.地震危险性分析和震害预测.北京:地震出版社,1999.
[26]Chen Yong,Chen Qifu,Chen Ling.Vulnerability analysis in earthquake loss estimate.Natural Hazards,2001,23(2-3):349-364
[27]孙林松,蒋能强.我国地震人员伤亡预测研究及问题讨论.国际地震动态,1993(10):9-14.
[28]国家地震局灾害防御司未来地震灾害损失预测研究组.中国地震灾害损失预测研究.北京:地震出版社,1990.
[29]王飞,蒋建群.城市地震灾害综合易损性分析方法探讨.地震研究,2005,28(1):95-101.
[30]马玉宏,谢礼立.地震人员伤亡估算方法研究.地震工程与工程振动,2000,20(4):140-147.
[31]刘吉夫,陈颙,史培军,等.中国大陆地震风险分析模型研究:生命易损性模型.北京师范大学学报,2009,45(4):404-407.
[32]国家减灾委员会科学技术部抗震救灾专家组.汶川地震灾害综合分析与评价.北京:科学出版社,2008.
[33]葛全胜,方修琦,叶谦,等.全球环境变化视角下中国粮食、水与健康安全问题研究.北京:气象出版社,2011.
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