引文
[1]Jordan T H,Chen Y-T,Gasparini P,et al.Operational Earthquake Forecasting:State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization.Annals of Geophysics,2011,54(4):315-391;doi:10.4401/ag5350
[2]Jordan T H,Chen Y-T,Gasparini P,et al.Operational earthquake forecasting:State of knowledge and guidelines for implementation.Findings and recommendations of the International Commission on Earth-quake Forecasting for Civil Protection,released by the Dipartimento della Protezione Civile,Rome,Italy,2October,2009
[3]Crampin S.The New Geophysics:a new understanding of fluid-rock deformation,In:Eurock2006:Multiphysics coupling and long term behaviour in rock mechanics,A Van Cotthem,R Charlier,J-F Thi-mus,and J-P Tshibangu,eds.,Taylor and Francis,London,2006:539-544
[4]Crampin S,Peacock S.A review of the current understanding of shear-wave splitting and common falla-cies in interpretation,Wave Motion,2008,45:675-722
[5]Crampin S.A second opinion on“Operational earthquake forecasting:some thoughts on why and how”,by Thomas H Jordan and Lucile M Jones.Seism.Res.Lett.,2011,82:227-230
[6]Crampin S,Volti T,Stefánsson R.A successfully stress-forecast earthquake.Geophys.J.Int.,1999,138:F1-F5
[7]Crampin S,Gao Y,Peacock S.Stress-forecasting(not predicting)earthquakes:A paradigm shift?.Ge-ology,2008,36:427-430
[8]Crampin S.The fracture criticality of crustal rocks.Geophys.J.Int.,1994,118:428-438
[9]Crampin S,Zatsepin S V.Modelling the compliance of crustal rock:II-response to temporal changes be-fore earthquakes.Geophys.J.Int.,1994,129:495-506
[10]Davies P.The New Physics:a synthesis,In:The New Physics,P.Davies(ed.).Cambridge Univ.Press.,1989:1-6
[11]Jordan T H,Jones L M.Reply to“A second opinion on‘Operational earthquake forecasting:some thoughts on why and how’,by Thomas H Jordan and Lucile M Jones',by Stuart Crampin”.Seis.Res.Lett.,2011,82:231-232
[12]Jordan T H,Jones L M.Operational earthquake forecasting:some thoughts on why and how.Seis.Res.Lett.,2010,81:571-574
[13]Gutenberg B,Richter C F.Magnitude and energy of earthquakes.Annali di Geofisica,1956,9(1):1-15;republished in Annals of Geophysics,2010,53(1),doi:10.4401/ag-4588.IASPEI,2011,www.iaspei.org/resolutions/resolutions_2011_melbourne.pdf
[14]Gao Y,Crampin S.Observations of stress relaxation before earthquakes.Geophys.J.Int.,2004,157:578-582
[15]Wu J,Crampin S,Gao Y,et al.Smaller source earthquakes and improved measuring techniques allow the largest earthquakes in Iceland to be stress-forecast(with hindsight).Geophys.J.Int.,2006,166:1293-1298
[16]Crampin S.Calculable fluid-rock interactions.J.Geol.Soc.,1999,156:501-514
[17]Angerer E,Crampin S,Li X-Y,et al.Processing,modelling,and predicting time-lapse effects of over-pressured fluid-injection in a fractured reservoir.Geophys.J.Int.,2002,149:267-280
[18]Crampin S,Chastin S.A review of shear-wave splitting in the crack-critical crust.Geophys.J.Int.,2003,155:221-240
[19]Crampin S,Gao Y.The New Geophysics,Terra Nova,submitted.2012a
[20]Lorenz E N.Predictability:does the flap of a butterfly’s wings in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas?.Ann.Mtg.Am.Assoc.Adv.Sci.,Washington D.C.1972
[21]Crampin S,Chastin S,Gao Y.Shear-wave splitting in a critical crust:III-preliminary report of multivari-able measurements in active tectonics.J.Appl.Geophys.,2003,54:265-277
[22]Crampin S,Volti T,Chastin S,et al.Indication of high pore-fluid pressures in a seismically-active fault zone.Geophys.J.Int.,2002,151:F1-F5
[23]Crampin S,Peacock S,Gao Y,et al.The scatter of time-delays in shear-wave splitting above small earthquakes.Geophys.J.Int.,2004,156:39-44
[24]Volti T,Crampin S.A four-year study of shear-wave splitting in Iceland:2.Temporal changes before earthquakes and volcanic eruptions,In:New insights into structural interpretation and modelling,D.A.Nieuwland,ed.,Geol.Soc.Lond.,Spec.Publ.,2003,212:135-149
[25]Crampin S,Volti T,Stefánsson R.Response to“A statistical evaluation of a‘stress-forecast’earth-quake”by T Seher and I G Main.Geophys.J.Int.,2004,157:194-199
[26]Crampin S,Gao Y,Santis A.A few earthquake conundra resolved,Terra Nova,submitted.2012
[27]Crampin S,Gao Y.Plate-wide deformation before the Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake.J.Asian Earth Sci.,2012,46:61-69;doi:10.1016/j.jseaes.2011.1015
[28]Volti T,Crampin S.A four-year study of shear wave splitting in Iceland:1.Background and preliminary analysis,In:New insights into structural interpretation and modelling,D.A.Nieuwland,ed.,Geol.Soc.Lond.,Spec.Publ.,2003,212:117-133
[29]Crampin S.Developing stress-monitoring sites using cross-hole seismology to stress-forecast the times and magnitudes of future earthquakes.Tectonophysics,2001,338:233-245.Note updated geometry in online version
[30]Miller V,Savage M.Changes in seismic anisotropy after volcanic eruptions:evidence from Mount Rua-pehu.Science,2001,293:2231-2235
[31]Bianco F,Scarfi L,Del Pezzo E,et al.Shear wave splitting changes associated with the2001volcanic e-ruption on Mt Etna.Geophys.J.Int.,2006,167:959-967
[32]Gerst A,Savage M.Seismic anisotropy beneath Ruapehu volcano:A possible eruption forecasting tool.Science,2004,306:1543-1547
[33]Stefánsson R.Advances in earthquake prediction,Springer-Praxis Books,New York,2011:91