对国际地震预报委员会(民防)“可操作性地震预报”报告的评论
详细信息 本馆镜像全文    |  推荐本文 | | 获取馆网全文
摘要
国际地震预报委员会(民防)(ICEF)最近出版了报告"可操作性地震预报:发展现状和使用手册",该报告的言下之意是目前没有可靠的、技术过硬的方法来实现大地震的短期预测。现在看来,这种观点不正确。通过采用剪切波分裂方法监测地震震源区周围岩体的应力累积,可以确定性地应力预报地震。这种流体-岩石形变的新认识意味着ICEF报告中的建议已经不恰当。本评论对这一新认识进行了回顾,提出了促进意大利可操行性地震预报发展的方向,在于安装一个或多个可控震源的三井孔应力监测点,通过使用剪切波分裂来监测应力累积和应力预报意大利所有破坏性(M≥5)地震。
引文
[1]Jordan T H,Chen Y-T,Gasparini P,et al.Operational Earthquake Forecasting:State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization.Annals of Geophysics,2011,54(4):315-391;doi:10.4401/ag5350
    [2]Jordan T H,Chen Y-T,Gasparini P,et al.Operational earthquake forecasting:State of knowledge and guidelines for implementation.Findings and recommendations of the International Commission on Earth-quake Forecasting for Civil Protection,released by the Dipartimento della Protezione Civile,Rome,Italy,2October,2009
    [3]Crampin S.The New Geophysics:a new understanding of fluid-rock deformation,In:Eurock2006:Multiphysics coupling and long term behaviour in rock mechanics,A Van Cotthem,R Charlier,J-F Thi-mus,and J-P Tshibangu,eds.,Taylor and Francis,London,2006:539-544
    [4]Crampin S,Peacock S.A review of the current understanding of shear-wave splitting and common falla-cies in interpretation,Wave Motion,2008,45:675-722
    [5]Crampin S.A second opinion on“Operational earthquake forecasting:some thoughts on why and how”,by Thomas H Jordan and Lucile M Jones.Seism.Res.Lett.,2011,82:227-230
    [6]Crampin S,Volti T,Stefánsson R.A successfully stress-forecast earthquake.Geophys.J.Int.,1999,138:F1-F5
    [7]Crampin S,Gao Y,Peacock S.Stress-forecasting(not predicting)earthquakes:A paradigm shift?.Ge-ology,2008,36:427-430
    [8]Crampin S.The fracture criticality of crustal rocks.Geophys.J.Int.,1994,118:428-438
    [9]Crampin S,Zatsepin S V.Modelling the compliance of crustal rock:II-response to temporal changes be-fore earthquakes.Geophys.J.Int.,1994,129:495-506
    [10]Davies P.The New Physics:a synthesis,In:The New Physics,P.Davies(ed.).Cambridge Univ.Press.,1989:1-6
    [11]Jordan T H,Jones L M.Reply to“A second opinion on‘Operational earthquake forecasting:some thoughts on why and how’,by Thomas H Jordan and Lucile M Jones',by Stuart Crampin”.Seis.Res.Lett.,2011,82:231-232
    [12]Jordan T H,Jones L M.Operational earthquake forecasting:some thoughts on why and how.Seis.Res.Lett.,2010,81:571-574
    [13]Gutenberg B,Richter C F.Magnitude and energy of earthquakes.Annali di Geofisica,1956,9(1):1-15;republished in Annals of Geophysics,2010,53(1),doi:10.4401/ag-4588.IASPEI,2011,www.iaspei.org/resolutions/resolutions_2011_melbourne.pdf
    [14]Gao Y,Crampin S.Observations of stress relaxation before earthquakes.Geophys.J.Int.,2004,157:578-582
    [15]Wu J,Crampin S,Gao Y,et al.Smaller source earthquakes and improved measuring techniques allow the largest earthquakes in Iceland to be stress-forecast(with hindsight).Geophys.J.Int.,2006,166:1293-1298
    [16]Crampin S.Calculable fluid-rock interactions.J.Geol.Soc.,1999,156:501-514
    [17]Angerer E,Crampin S,Li X-Y,et al.Processing,modelling,and predicting time-lapse effects of over-pressured fluid-injection in a fractured reservoir.Geophys.J.Int.,2002,149:267-280
    [18]Crampin S,Chastin S.A review of shear-wave splitting in the crack-critical crust.Geophys.J.Int.,2003,155:221-240
    [19]Crampin S,Gao Y.The New Geophysics,Terra Nova,submitted.2012a
    [20]Lorenz E N.Predictability:does the flap of a butterfly’s wings in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas?.Ann.Mtg.Am.Assoc.Adv.Sci.,Washington D.C.1972
    [21]Crampin S,Chastin S,Gao Y.Shear-wave splitting in a critical crust:III-preliminary report of multivari-able measurements in active tectonics.J.Appl.Geophys.,2003,54:265-277
    [22]Crampin S,Volti T,Chastin S,et al.Indication of high pore-fluid pressures in a seismically-active fault zone.Geophys.J.Int.,2002,151:F1-F5
    [23]Crampin S,Peacock S,Gao Y,et al.The scatter of time-delays in shear-wave splitting above small earthquakes.Geophys.J.Int.,2004,156:39-44
    [24]Volti T,Crampin S.A four-year study of shear-wave splitting in Iceland:2.Temporal changes before earthquakes and volcanic eruptions,In:New insights into structural interpretation and modelling,D.A.Nieuwland,ed.,Geol.Soc.Lond.,Spec.Publ.,2003,212:135-149
    [25]Crampin S,Volti T,Stefánsson R.Response to“A statistical evaluation of a‘stress-forecast’earth-quake”by T Seher and I G Main.Geophys.J.Int.,2004,157:194-199
    [26]Crampin S,Gao Y,Santis A.A few earthquake conundra resolved,Terra Nova,submitted.2012
    [27]Crampin S,Gao Y.Plate-wide deformation before the Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake.J.Asian Earth Sci.,2012,46:61-69;doi:10.1016/j.jseaes.2011.1015
    [28]Volti T,Crampin S.A four-year study of shear wave splitting in Iceland:1.Background and preliminary analysis,In:New insights into structural interpretation and modelling,D.A.Nieuwland,ed.,Geol.Soc.Lond.,Spec.Publ.,2003,212:117-133
    [29]Crampin S.Developing stress-monitoring sites using cross-hole seismology to stress-forecast the times and magnitudes of future earthquakes.Tectonophysics,2001,338:233-245.Note updated geometry in online version
    [30]Miller V,Savage M.Changes in seismic anisotropy after volcanic eruptions:evidence from Mount Rua-pehu.Science,2001,293:2231-2235
    [31]Bianco F,Scarfi L,Del Pezzo E,et al.Shear wave splitting changes associated with the2001volcanic e-ruption on Mt Etna.Geophys.J.Int.,2006,167:959-967
    [32]Gerst A,Savage M.Seismic anisotropy beneath Ruapehu volcano:A possible eruption forecasting tool.Science,2004,306:1543-1547
    [33]Stefánsson R.Advances in earthquake prediction,Springer-Praxis Books,New York,2011:91

版权所有:© 2023 中国地质图书馆 中国地质调查局地学文献中心