地震预警系统应用的社会影响调查与分析
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摘要
地震预警系统建设是降低地震灾害的一个重要途径,可以有效地减少人员伤亡和财产损失,但地震预警系统目前还处于发展阶段,应用中存在一定风险。设计了若干个关于地震预警系统应用的社会调查问卷,以通过调查结果定性地评估地震预警系统产生的社会影响,统计公众对预警系统的认识和需求,分析预警信息发布对公众的影响和公众对地震漏报、误报等风险的接受程度,以及地震预警系统相关的法律问题。调查结果显示,我国公众对地震预警系统的期望程度及有效性评价均很高,但也存在着一些问题,如对地震预警相关知识了解较少,对紧急事件应变能力较差,对预警盲区和漏报等风险接受程度较低等。最后,结合国外地震预警系统的研究成果和应用现状,提出了相关建议及应对措施,希望能对我国预警系统的建设提供参考作用。
Construction of earthquake early warning system(EEWS) is an important way to mitigate earthquake hazards.It may to effectively reduce seismic casualties and property losses.However,EEWS is still in the developing stage and we should be aware of its application limitations and risks.Thus,we designed some social survey questionnaire in order to qualitatively evaluate the public responses for EEWS,obtain their comprehension and need,investigate their responses to the released earthquake warning information and their acceptance to the false and missing warning information,as well as some legal issues regarding to EEWS.The results show that the public overall acceptance and valuation for EEWS is high,but more efforts are needed be taken to increase the public knowledge about EEWS and improve the public emergency response capabilities and their acceptance and understanding on the false and missing alarms.In the end,some suggestions and measures to reduce the risk of earthquake early warning were given with reference to the experience of other international advanced EEWS,which would be helpful to improve the early warning system of China.
Construction of earthquake early warning system(EEWS) is an important way to mitigate earthquake hazards.It may to effectively reduce seismic casualties and property losses.However,EEWS is still in the developing stage and we should be aware of its application limitations and risks.Thus,we designed some social survey questionnaire in order to qualitatively evaluate the public responses for EEWS,obtain their comprehension and need,investigate their responses to the released earthquake warning information and their acceptance to the false and missing warning information,as well as some legal issues regarding to EEWS.The results show that the public overall acceptance and valuation for EEWS is high,but more efforts are needed be taken to increase the public knowledge about EEWS and improve the public emergency response capabilities and their acceptance and understanding on the false and missing alarms.In the end,some suggestions and measures to reduce the risk of earthquake early warning were given with reference to the experience of other international advanced EEWS,which would be helpful to improve the early warning system of China.
引文
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[2]Suárez G,Novelo D,Mansilla E.Performance evaluation of the seismic alert system(SAS)in Mexico City:a seismological and a social perspec-tive[J].Seismological Research Letters,2009,80(5):707-714.
[3]Wurman G,Allen R M,Lombard P.Toward earthquake early warning in northern California[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,2007,112:1-19.
[4]Allen R M,Kanamor H.The potential for earthquake early warning in southern California[J].Science,2003,300:786-789.
[5]Erdik M,Fahjan Y,Ozel O,et al.Istanbul earthquake rapid response and the early warning system[J].Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering,2003,1(1):157-163.
[6]Japan Meteorological Agency.The announcement of release situation by the earthquake early warning system[EB/OL].(2011-04-01)[2011-09-23].http://www.seisvol.kishou.go.jp/eq/EEW/kaisetsu/teikyoujoukyou_201103.pdf
[7]Peng H S,Wu Z L,Wu Y M,et al.Developing a prototype earthquake early warning system in the Beijing Capital Region[J].Seismological Re-search Letters,2011,82(3):394-403.
[8]Japan Meteorological Agency.Earthquake and volcanic hazards information satisfaction survey results[EB/OL].(2009-03-01)[2011-09-23].http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/press/0903/11a/20manzokudo_kekka.pdf.
[9]夏玉胜,杨丽萍.地震预警(报)系统及减灾效益研究[J].西北地震学报,2000,22(4):101-106.XIA Yusheng,YANG Liping.On earthquake prediction(Warning)system and its disaster reduction benefit[J].Northwestern Seismological Jour-nal,2000,22(4):101-106.(in Chinese)
[10]张青松,刘金兰,赵国敏.大型公共场所人群拥挤踩踏事故机理初探[J].自然灾害学报,2009,18(6):81-86.ZHANG Qingsong,LIU Jinlan,ZHAO Guomin.Discussion on cause mechanism of crowd crushing and trampling accident in large-scale publicplaces[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2009,18(6):81-86.(in Chinese)
[11]Maruyama Y,Yamazaki F.Driving simulator experiment on the effect of early warning of seismic motion to expressway drivers[J].Proceedings ofthe 13th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering,2004,33(6):775-792.
[12]Ponboon S,Islam M B,Boontob N,et al.Contributing factors of road crashes in Thailand:evidences from the accident in-depth study[J].Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies,2010,8:1986-1998.
[13]Yamazaki F,Maruyama Y,Sakaya M.experiments of earthquake early warning to expressway drivers using plural driving simulators[J].Journalof Earthquake and Tsunami,2009,3(4):261-272.
[14]王国培.日本紧急地震速报系统很难推广到中国[N].四川科技报,2008-06-27(011).
[15]Brown H M,Allen R M,Grasso V F.Testing ElarmS in Japan[J].Seismol Res Lett,2009,80(5):727-39.
[16]Wu Y M,Kanamori H.Experiment on an onsite early warning method for the Taiwan early warning system[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Soci-ety of America,2005,95(1):347-353.
[17]Brown H M,Allen R M,Hellweg M,et al.Development of the ElarmS methodology for earthquake early warning:Realtime application in Cali-fornia and offline testing in Japan[J].Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering,2011,31(2):188-200.
[2]Suárez G,Novelo D,Mansilla E.Performance evaluation of the seismic alert system(SAS)in Mexico City:a seismological and a social perspec-tive[J].Seismological Research Letters,2009,80(5):707-714.
[3]Wurman G,Allen R M,Lombard P.Toward earthquake early warning in northern California[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,2007,112:1-19.
[4]Allen R M,Kanamor H.The potential for earthquake early warning in southern California[J].Science,2003,300:786-789.
[5]Erdik M,Fahjan Y,Ozel O,et al.Istanbul earthquake rapid response and the early warning system[J].Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering,2003,1(1):157-163.
[6]Japan Meteorological Agency.The announcement of release situation by the earthquake early warning system[EB/OL].(2011-04-01)[2011-09-23].http://www.seisvol.kishou.go.jp/eq/EEW/kaisetsu/teikyoujoukyou_201103.pdf
[7]Peng H S,Wu Z L,Wu Y M,et al.Developing a prototype earthquake early warning system in the Beijing Capital Region[J].Seismological Re-search Letters,2011,82(3):394-403.
[8]Japan Meteorological Agency.Earthquake and volcanic hazards information satisfaction survey results[EB/OL].(2009-03-01)[2011-09-23].http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/press/0903/11a/20manzokudo_kekka.pdf.
[9]夏玉胜,杨丽萍.地震预警(报)系统及减灾效益研究[J].西北地震学报,2000,22(4):101-106.XIA Yusheng,YANG Liping.On earthquake prediction(Warning)system and its disaster reduction benefit[J].Northwestern Seismological Jour-nal,2000,22(4):101-106.(in Chinese)
[10]张青松,刘金兰,赵国敏.大型公共场所人群拥挤踩踏事故机理初探[J].自然灾害学报,2009,18(6):81-86.ZHANG Qingsong,LIU Jinlan,ZHAO Guomin.Discussion on cause mechanism of crowd crushing and trampling accident in large-scale publicplaces[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2009,18(6):81-86.(in Chinese)
[11]Maruyama Y,Yamazaki F.Driving simulator experiment on the effect of early warning of seismic motion to expressway drivers[J].Proceedings ofthe 13th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering,2004,33(6):775-792.
[12]Ponboon S,Islam M B,Boontob N,et al.Contributing factors of road crashes in Thailand:evidences from the accident in-depth study[J].Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies,2010,8:1986-1998.
[13]Yamazaki F,Maruyama Y,Sakaya M.experiments of earthquake early warning to expressway drivers using plural driving simulators[J].Journalof Earthquake and Tsunami,2009,3(4):261-272.
[14]王国培.日本紧急地震速报系统很难推广到中国[N].四川科技报,2008-06-27(011).
[15]Brown H M,Allen R M,Grasso V F.Testing ElarmS in Japan[J].Seismol Res Lett,2009,80(5):727-39.
[16]Wu Y M,Kanamori H.Experiment on an onsite early warning method for the Taiwan early warning system[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Soci-ety of America,2005,95(1):347-353.
[17]Brown H M,Allen R M,Hellweg M,et al.Development of the ElarmS methodology for earthquake early warning:Realtime application in Cali-fornia and offline testing in Japan[J].Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering,2011,31(2):188-200.
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