1994年9月16日台湾海峡7.3级地震静态库仑应力变化及断裂危险性初步研究
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摘要
利用1994年9月16日台湾海峡7.3级地震震源机制解及滑动分布模型的资料,计算了由台湾海峡7.3级地震造成的静态库仑应力变化。对余震的分布进行了研究与分析,从震后余震的分布与应力场的情况及历史上这一地区的震源地分布的角度对库仑应力的变化进行了分析。结果显示,基于滑动分布模型正演的静态库仑应力变化在距震中相对较远的区域与余震分布的一致性较好,约90%的余震发生在库仑应力增加的区域;在震中附近计算出的库仑应力变化比较复杂,与余震的分布序列并不完全一致。在距震中较远的区域,库仑应力变化能比较好的反映余震的分布,而在震中附近库仑应力变化与余震分布的对应关系则比较复杂。以闽粤滨海断裂带为接收断层计算了其上的库仑应力变化,结果显示其西南段上的应力增加,促使其活动性增强,认为在闽粤滨海断裂带与NW走向的上杭-东山断裂交汇的南澎岛-东山岛海域发生地震的潜在危险性较大。
Using the focal mechanism and slip distribution model of the Taiwan Strait MS7.3 earthquake on Sep.16,1994,we calculated the static coulomb stress change stemming from the earthquake.Based on the distribution of aftershocks and stress field as well as the location of historical earthquake,we researched the coulomb stress change of Taiwan Strait MS7.3 earthquake.The result shows that:static coulomb stress change forward modeling based on slip distribution model is quite consistent with the location of aftershocks in the area that is far away from the epicenter.Ninety percent aftershocks occurred in the stress increased areas.The coulomb stress change is not entirely consistent with the distribution of aftershocks near the epicenter.It follows that coulomb stress change can better reflect the aftershock occurrence far away from epicenter,while such corresponding relationship becomes quite complex near epicenter.Through the calculation,we find that the coulomb stress change in southwest part of Min-Yue(Fujian-Guangdong) coastal fault zone is increased,and this enhances the seismic activity.As it is the intersection area of Min-Yue coastal fault with Shanghang-Dongshan fault,we considered the Nanpeng Island-Dongshan Island surroundings have a high potential seismic risk.
Using the focal mechanism and slip distribution model of the Taiwan Strait MS7.3 earthquake on Sep.16,1994,we calculated the static coulomb stress change stemming from the earthquake.Based on the distribution of aftershocks and stress field as well as the location of historical earthquake,we researched the coulomb stress change of Taiwan Strait MS7.3 earthquake.The result shows that:static coulomb stress change forward modeling based on slip distribution model is quite consistent with the location of aftershocks in the area that is far away from the epicenter.Ninety percent aftershocks occurred in the stress increased areas.The coulomb stress change is not entirely consistent with the distribution of aftershocks near the epicenter.It follows that coulomb stress change can better reflect the aftershock occurrence far away from epicenter,while such corresponding relationship becomes quite complex near epicenter.Through the calculation,we find that the coulomb stress change in southwest part of Min-Yue(Fujian-Guangdong) coastal fault zone is increased,and this enhances the seismic activity.As it is the intersection area of Min-Yue coastal fault with Shanghang-Dongshan fault,we considered the Nanpeng Island-Dongshan Island surroundings have a high potential seismic risk.
引文
[1]http://www.csndmc.ac.cn/newweb/cgi-bin/csndmc/csn_catalog_p003.pl?mode=ccatalog&ot=19940916_0620194
陈连旺、张培震、陆远忠等,2008,川滇地区强震序列库仑破裂应力加卸载效应的数值模拟,地球物理学报,51(5),1411～1421。
陈祥熊、袁定强、吴长江,1996,台湾海峡南部MS7.3级地震震源破裂特征及东南沿海地震形势分析,地震学报,18(2),145～155。
丁学仁,1998,闽粤海外历史地震与台湾海峡现今强震活动图像,中国地震,14(3),51～59。
丁原章、梁劳,1992,巴士系构造的地震危险性,华南地震,12(2),1～14。
冯绚敏、胡瑞贺,1996,台湾海峡7.3级地震序列特征,华南地震,16(3),9～16。
傅征祥、刘桂萍、陈棋福,2001,青藏高原北缘海原、古浪、昌马大地震间相互作用的动力学分析,地震地质,23(1),35～42。
和泰名、李世愚、张洪魁等,2011,滑动弱化模型下的库仑应力变化与远程触发问题,地震学报,33(2),165～186。
黄慈流、艻达权、陈汉宗等,1997,台湾海峡西部地质、地球物理和地球化学综合调查研究,56～68,厦门:厦门出版社。
黄昭、王善雄,2006,台湾海峡滨海断裂带的构造特征与活动性,大地测量与地球动力学,26(3),16～22。
梁劳,1998,巴士系断裂带的构造应力场特征,华南地震,18(1),119～124。
林明圣、萧谦丽,2004,台南盆地的地震构造,地震学报,26(4),404～410。
林明圣、萧谦丽、郑世楠,1998,地震诱发的滑坡湖—台湾草岭与四川摩岗岭,海峡两岸山地灾害与环境研究,1,263～267。
刘昭蜀、赵焕庭、范时清等,2001,南海地质,255～258,北京:科学出版社。
吕浩江,1997,台湾海峡南部1994年9月16日7.3级地震活动空间特征与发展构造,福建地理,12(1),7～11。
彭华、马秀敏、姜景捷,2009,龙门山北端青川断层附近应力测量与断层稳定性,地质力学学报,15(2),114～130。
彭美凤、林世敏、林树,1997,台湾海峡7.3级地震及其震后地震趋势研究,地震,17(2),184～194。
任镇寰、钟贻军、罗振暖,1998,1994年9月16日台湾浅滩7.3级地震发震构造的讨论,地壳形变与地震,18(4),38～47。
邵志刚、傅容珊、薛霆虓等,2009,库仑应力变化与余震对应关系的初步探讨——以集集地震为例,地球物理学进展,24(2),367～374。
石耀霖、曹建玲,2010,库仑应力计算及应用过程中若干问题的讨论——以汶川地震为例,地球物理学报,53(1),102～110。
万永革、沈正康、曾跃华等,2007,青藏高原东北部的库仑应力积累演化对大地震发生的影响,地震学报,29(2),115～129。
王力伟、陈棋福,2010,以2008汶川8.0级地震为例分析地震触发的静态库仑应力计算的不确定性,中国地震,26(3),251～264。
张国宏、单新建、李卫东,2008,汶川MS8.0地震库仑破裂应力变化及断层危险性初步研究,地震地质,30(4),935～944。
张丽旭、周敏、陈培源,1947,民国三十五年十二月五日之台南地震,台湾省地质调查所汇刊,1,11～16。
张培震、徐锡伟、闻学泽等,2008,2008年汶川8.0级地震发震断裂的滑动速率、复发周期和构造成因,地球物理学报,51(4),1066～1073。
张训华,2008,中国海域构造地质学,204～217,北京:海洋出版社。
郑天愉、刘鹏程,1996,1994年9月16日台湾海峡地震及其构造背景研究,地球物理学报,39(1),68～79。
周宇明、单斌、熊熊,2008,静态应力触发中影响库仑应力变化的参数敏感性分析,大地测量与地球动力学,28(5),21～26。
Biq C,2000,The1999Chial earthquake of Taiwan and the co-seismic strike slip duplexing,Central Geol Surv Spec Pub,12,183～190.
Deng J,Sykes L R,1997,Evolution of the stress field in southern California and triggering of moderate-size earthquakes:a200-yearperspective,J Geophysics Res,102,9859～9886.
Harris R A,1998,Introduction to special section:stress triggers,stress shadows,and implications for seismic hazard,J GeophysRes,103,24347～24358.
Kao H,Wu F T,1996,The16September1994earthquake in the Taiwan Strait and its tectonic implication,Terrestrial,Atmosphericand Oceanic Science,7(1),13～29.
King G C P,Stein R S,Lin J,1994,Static stress changes and the triggering of earthquakes,Bull Seismic Soc Am,84(3),935～953.
Lin J,Stein R S,2004,Stress triggering in thrust and subduction earthquakes and stress interaction between the southern SanAndreas and nearby thrust and strike-slip faults,J Geophys Res,109,B02303,doi:10.1029/2003JB002607.
McCloskey J,Nalbant S S,Steacy S,2003,Structural Constraints on the spatial distribution of aftershocks,Geophys Res Lett,30(2),1610,doi:10.1029/2003GL017225.
Nalbant S S,Mc Closkey J,Steacy S,et al,2002,Stress accumulation and increased seismic risk in Eastern Turkey,Earth Planet SciLett,195,291～298.
Nalbant S S,Steacy S,McCloskey J,2006,Stress transfer relations among the earthquake that occurred in Kerman province,southern Iran since1981,Geophys J Int,167,309～318.
Okada Y,1992,Internal deformation due to shear and tensile faults in a half-space,Bull Seism Soc Amer,82,1018～1040.
Omori F,1907,Preliminary note on the Formosa earthquake of March17,1906,Imp Earthquake Lnves Comm Bull,2,53～69.
Parsons T,Dreger D S,2000,Static-stress impact of the1992Landers earthquake sequence on nucleation and slip at the site of the1999M=7.1Hector Mine earthquake,southern California,Geophys Res Lett,27(13),1949～1952.
Parsons T,Ji C,Kirby E,2008,Stress changes from the2008Wenchuan earthquake and increased hazard in the Sichuan Basin,Nature,454,509～510,doi:10.1038/naturt0717.
Steacy S,Nalbant S,McCloskey J,et al,2005,Onto what planes should Coulomb stress perturbations be resolved?,J Geophys Res,110(B05S15),doi:10,1029/2004JB003356.
Stein R S,King G C P,Lin J,1994,Stress triggering of the1994M=6.7Northridge,California,earthquake by its predecessors,Science,265,1432～1435.
Toda S,2008,Coulomb stress imparted by the25March2007MW=6.6Noto-Hanto,Japan earthquake explain its‘butterfly’distribution of aftershocks and suggest a heightened seismic hazard,Earth Planet Space,60(10),1041～11046.
Toda S,Lin J,Stein R S,2011,Using the2011MW=9.0off the Pacific coast of Tohoku earthquake to test the Coulomb stresstriggering hypothesis and to calculate faults brought closer to failure,Earth,Planets and Space,63,725～730,doi:10.5047/eps.2011.05.010.
陈连旺、张培震、陆远忠等,2008,川滇地区强震序列库仑破裂应力加卸载效应的数值模拟,地球物理学报,51(5),1411～1421。
陈祥熊、袁定强、吴长江,1996,台湾海峡南部MS7.3级地震震源破裂特征及东南沿海地震形势分析,地震学报,18(2),145～155。
丁学仁,1998,闽粤海外历史地震与台湾海峡现今强震活动图像,中国地震,14(3),51～59。
丁原章、梁劳,1992,巴士系构造的地震危险性,华南地震,12(2),1～14。
冯绚敏、胡瑞贺,1996,台湾海峡7.3级地震序列特征,华南地震,16(3),9～16。
傅征祥、刘桂萍、陈棋福,2001,青藏高原北缘海原、古浪、昌马大地震间相互作用的动力学分析,地震地质,23(1),35～42。
和泰名、李世愚、张洪魁等,2011,滑动弱化模型下的库仑应力变化与远程触发问题,地震学报,33(2),165～186。
黄慈流、艻达权、陈汉宗等,1997,台湾海峡西部地质、地球物理和地球化学综合调查研究,56～68,厦门:厦门出版社。
黄昭、王善雄,2006,台湾海峡滨海断裂带的构造特征与活动性,大地测量与地球动力学,26(3),16～22。
梁劳,1998,巴士系断裂带的构造应力场特征,华南地震,18(1),119～124。
林明圣、萧谦丽,2004,台南盆地的地震构造,地震学报,26(4),404～410。
林明圣、萧谦丽、郑世楠,1998,地震诱发的滑坡湖—台湾草岭与四川摩岗岭,海峡两岸山地灾害与环境研究,1,263～267。
刘昭蜀、赵焕庭、范时清等,2001,南海地质,255～258,北京:科学出版社。
吕浩江,1997,台湾海峡南部1994年9月16日7.3级地震活动空间特征与发展构造,福建地理,12(1),7～11。
彭华、马秀敏、姜景捷,2009,龙门山北端青川断层附近应力测量与断层稳定性,地质力学学报,15(2),114～130。
彭美凤、林世敏、林树,1997,台湾海峡7.3级地震及其震后地震趋势研究,地震,17(2),184～194。
任镇寰、钟贻军、罗振暖,1998,1994年9月16日台湾浅滩7.3级地震发震构造的讨论,地壳形变与地震,18(4),38～47。
邵志刚、傅容珊、薛霆虓等,2009,库仑应力变化与余震对应关系的初步探讨——以集集地震为例,地球物理学进展,24(2),367～374。
石耀霖、曹建玲,2010,库仑应力计算及应用过程中若干问题的讨论——以汶川地震为例,地球物理学报,53(1),102～110。
万永革、沈正康、曾跃华等,2007,青藏高原东北部的库仑应力积累演化对大地震发生的影响,地震学报,29(2),115～129。
王力伟、陈棋福,2010,以2008汶川8.0级地震为例分析地震触发的静态库仑应力计算的不确定性,中国地震,26(3),251～264。
张国宏、单新建、李卫东,2008,汶川MS8.0地震库仑破裂应力变化及断层危险性初步研究,地震地质,30(4),935～944。
张丽旭、周敏、陈培源,1947,民国三十五年十二月五日之台南地震,台湾省地质调查所汇刊,1,11～16。
张培震、徐锡伟、闻学泽等,2008,2008年汶川8.0级地震发震断裂的滑动速率、复发周期和构造成因,地球物理学报,51(4),1066～1073。
张训华,2008,中国海域构造地质学,204～217,北京:海洋出版社。
郑天愉、刘鹏程,1996,1994年9月16日台湾海峡地震及其构造背景研究,地球物理学报,39(1),68～79。
周宇明、单斌、熊熊,2008,静态应力触发中影响库仑应力变化的参数敏感性分析,大地测量与地球动力学,28(5),21～26。
Biq C,2000,The1999Chial earthquake of Taiwan and the co-seismic strike slip duplexing,Central Geol Surv Spec Pub,12,183～190.
Deng J,Sykes L R,1997,Evolution of the stress field in southern California and triggering of moderate-size earthquakes:a200-yearperspective,J Geophysics Res,102,9859～9886.
Harris R A,1998,Introduction to special section:stress triggers,stress shadows,and implications for seismic hazard,J GeophysRes,103,24347～24358.
Kao H,Wu F T,1996,The16September1994earthquake in the Taiwan Strait and its tectonic implication,Terrestrial,Atmosphericand Oceanic Science,7(1),13～29.
King G C P,Stein R S,Lin J,1994,Static stress changes and the triggering of earthquakes,Bull Seismic Soc Am,84(3),935～953.
Lin J,Stein R S,2004,Stress triggering in thrust and subduction earthquakes and stress interaction between the southern SanAndreas and nearby thrust and strike-slip faults,J Geophys Res,109,B02303,doi:10.1029/2003JB002607.
McCloskey J,Nalbant S S,Steacy S,2003,Structural Constraints on the spatial distribution of aftershocks,Geophys Res Lett,30(2),1610,doi:10.1029/2003GL017225.
Nalbant S S,Mc Closkey J,Steacy S,et al,2002,Stress accumulation and increased seismic risk in Eastern Turkey,Earth Planet SciLett,195,291～298.
Nalbant S S,Steacy S,McCloskey J,2006,Stress transfer relations among the earthquake that occurred in Kerman province,southern Iran since1981,Geophys J Int,167,309～318.
Okada Y,1992,Internal deformation due to shear and tensile faults in a half-space,Bull Seism Soc Amer,82,1018～1040.
Omori F,1907,Preliminary note on the Formosa earthquake of March17,1906,Imp Earthquake Lnves Comm Bull,2,53～69.
Parsons T,Dreger D S,2000,Static-stress impact of the1992Landers earthquake sequence on nucleation and slip at the site of the1999M=7.1Hector Mine earthquake,southern California,Geophys Res Lett,27(13),1949～1952.
Parsons T,Ji C,Kirby E,2008,Stress changes from the2008Wenchuan earthquake and increased hazard in the Sichuan Basin,Nature,454,509～510,doi:10.1038/naturt0717.
Steacy S,Nalbant S,McCloskey J,et al,2005,Onto what planes should Coulomb stress perturbations be resolved?,J Geophys Res,110(B05S15),doi:10,1029/2004JB003356.
Stein R S,King G C P,Lin J,1994,Stress triggering of the1994M=6.7Northridge,California,earthquake by its predecessors,Science,265,1432～1435.
Toda S,2008,Coulomb stress imparted by the25March2007MW=6.6Noto-Hanto,Japan earthquake explain its‘butterfly’distribution of aftershocks and suggest a heightened seismic hazard,Earth Planet Space,60(10),1041～11046.
Toda S,Lin J,Stein R S,2011,Using the2011MW=9.0off the Pacific coast of Tohoku earthquake to test the Coulomb stresstriggering hypothesis and to calculate faults brought closer to failure,Earth,Planets and Space,63,725～730,doi:10.5047/eps.2011.05.010.
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