地震拟合相关系数在青海地区地震预报中的应用
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摘要
根据Gutenberg-Richter公式对青海省东部及邻区(N34°—39.5°,E96°—104°)地震频次和震级的统计关系进行了研究。结果表明:中强地震前震中附近一定范围内中小地震的拟合相关系数有明显的下降现象。对研究区的地震进行统计计算,提取出了可信度较高的中期预报指标,预报评分为0.631。
Useing the G-R formula,the statistical relation of earthquake frequency and magnitude in east of Qinghai province and its adjacent region(N34°—39.5°,E96°—104°) is researched.The result shows that the earthquake fitting correlation coefficient of middle and small earthquakes descended obviously before strong shock in certain range near the epicents.Through calculation a reliable medium-term earthquake prediction index for research area is obtained,with higher R value 0.631.
Useing the G-R formula,the statistical relation of earthquake frequency and magnitude in east of Qinghai province and its adjacent region(N34°—39.5°,E96°—104°) is researched.The result shows that the earthquake fitting correlation coefficient of middle and small earthquakes descended obviously before strong shock in certain range near the epicents.Through calculation a reliable medium-term earthquake prediction index for research area is obtained,with higher R value 0.631.
引文
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[2]郭德科,胡凤英,李炳文,等.中强地震前地震拟合相关系数的异常特征在地震预报中的应用[J].地震研究,2003,26(4):315-320.
[3]陆远忠,李胜乐,邓志辉,等编.基于G IS的地震分析预报系统[M].成都:成都地图出版社,2002:119-120.
[4]王海涛,敖雪明,杨马棱,等编,单台地震预报的地震学方法[M].北京:地震出版社,1992:95-99.
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