城市地震次生灾害演化机理分析及仿真研究
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摘要
根据对城市地震次生灾害发生机理的分析,绘制了地震次生灾害演化的因果回路图和存量流量图。在此基础上借助系统动力学仿真软件Vensim PLE,对城市地震次生灾害演化过程建立了系统动力学模型,并进行了模型验证及仿真,得出了不同防震抗灾能力下城市地震次生灾害可能造成的损失情况,为城市防震救灾工作提供参考。
In this study,the mechanism of the urban seismic secondary disasters was analyzed,and based on this,the causal loop diagram and stock and flow map were drawn,and a system dynamics model of the evolution process of the urban seismic secondary disasters was developed,validated and simulated using the Vensim PLE software.As a result,corresponding loss scenarios caused by seismic secondary disasters in cities with different anti-earthquake capability were obtained to give a reference to strengthening the anti-earthquake work in cities.
In this study,the mechanism of the urban seismic secondary disasters was analyzed,and based on this,the causal loop diagram and stock and flow map were drawn,and a system dynamics model of the evolution process of the urban seismic secondary disasters was developed,validated and simulated using the Vensim PLE software.As a result,corresponding loss scenarios caused by seismic secondary disasters in cities with different anti-earthquake capability were obtained to give a reference to strengthening the anti-earthquake work in cities.
引文
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[14]饶国宁,陈网桦,胡毅亭,等.液氨泄漏事故危险性的定量分析研究[J].安全与环境学报,2004,4(S1):165-167.
[15]马玉宏,谢礼立.我国社会可接受地震人员死亡率的研究[J].自然灾害学报,2001,10(3):56-73.MA Yuhong,XIE Lili.Research on social acceptable earthquake mortality in China[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2001,10(3):56-73.(inChinese)
[16]聂高众,高建国,苏桂武,等.地震应急救助需求的模型化处理——来自地震震例的经验分析[J].资源科学,2001,1(1):69-76.NIE Gaozhong,GAO Jianguo,SU Guiwu,et al.Models on rapid jugement for the emergent rescue needs during earthquake—by analysis on postearthquake events[J].Resources Science,2001,1(1):69-76.(in Chinese)
[17]邓砚,苏桂武,聂高众.中国地震应急地区系数的初步研究[J].灾害学,2008,23(1):140-144.DENG Yan,SU Guiwu,NIE Gaozhong.The preliminary study on the regional index(RI)of earthquake emergency response(EER)of China[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2008,23(1):140-144.(in Chinese)
[18]马玉宏,谢礼立.关于地震人员伤亡因素的探讨[J].自然灾害学报,2000,9(3):84-90.MA Yuhong,XIE Lili.A study on factors influencing earthquake casualties[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2000,9(3):84-90.
[19]程家喻,杨喆.唐山地震人员震亡率与房屋倒塌率的相关分析[J].地震地质,1993,3(1):82-87.CHENG Jiayu,YANG Zhe.Regression analysis of mortality and the ratio of collapsing houses by Tangshan earthquake[J].Seismology and Geol-ogy,1993,3(1):82-87.(in Chinese)
[2]赵思健,任爱珠,熊利亚.城市地震次生火灾研究综述[J].自然灾害学报,2006,15(2):57-67.ZHAO Sijian,REN Aizhu,XIONG Liya.Review of studies on urban post-earthquake fires[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2006,15(2):57-67.(in Chinese)
[3]陈素文,李国强.地震次生火灾的研究进展[J].自然灾害学报,2008,17(5):120-126.CHEN Suwen,LI Guoqiang.Advance in research on secondary fire of earthquake[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2008,17(5):120-126.(inChinese)
[4]赵思健,熊利亚,任爱珠.基于GIS的城市地震次生火灾仿真系统[J].防灾减灾工程学报,2007,27(1):43-51.ZHAO Sijian,XIONG Liya,REN Aizhu.Simulation software system for the simulation of urban post-earthquake fires based on GIS[J].Journalof Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Engineering,2007,27(1):43-51.(in Chinese)
[5]赵振东,余世舟,钟江荣.地震次生毒气泄漏与扩散的数值模拟与动态仿真[J].地震工程与工程振动,2002,22(5):137-142.ZHAO Zhendong,YU Shizhou,ZHONG Jiangrong.Numerical simulation and dynamic emulation of poison gas leakage and diffusion in destructiveearthquake[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,2002,22(5):137-142.(in Chinese)
[6]余世舟,赵振东,钟江荣.地震次生毒气泄漏与扩散数值模拟的参数分析[J].地震工程与工程振动,2002,22(6):150-155.YU Shizhou,ZHAO Zhendong,ZHONG Jiangrong.Analysis of parameters for numerical simulation of poison gas leakage and diffusion in destruc-tive earthquake[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,2002,22(6):150-155.(in Chinese)
[7]余世舟,赵振东,钟江荣.基于GIS的地震次生灾害数值模拟[J].自然灾害学报,2003,12(4):100-105.YU Shizhou,ZHAO Zhendong,ZHONG Jiangrong.Numerical simulation of secondary disasters of earthquake based on GIS[J].Journal of NaturalDisasters,2003,12(4):100-105.(in Chinese)
[8]宋利萍,张俊玲,柏琳,等.城市地震成灾机制分析[J].高原地震,2005,17(2):38-43.SONG Liping,ZHANG Junling,BAI Lin.Analysis for the seismic disaster mechanism of cities[J].Plateau Earthquake Research,2005,17(2):38-43(in Chinese)
[9]杨光,沈繁銮.日本阪神地震灾害的一些调查统计数据[J].华南地震,2005,3(1):83-86.YANG Guang,SHEN Fanluan.Some statistic data of the disaster caused by Osaka-Kobe earthquake[J].South China Journal of Seismology,2005,3(1):83-86.(in Chinese)
[10]李昕.供水系统地震可靠性分析[D].大连:大连理工大学,2000.LI Xin.Seismic reliability analysis on water supply pipeline system[D].Dalian:Dalian University of Technology,Dalian,2000.(in Chinese)
[11]王志涛,田杰,苏经宇,等.汶川地震建筑物震害浅析[J].工程抗震与加固改造,2008,30(6):13-18.WANG Zhitao,TIAN Jie,SU Jingyu,et al.Brief analysis of the buildings’seismic disaster in Wenchuan earthquake[J].Earthquake ResistantEngineering and Retrofitting,2008,30(6):13-18.(in Chinese)
[12]余世舟,赵振东,钟江荣.地震次生毒气泄漏与扩散数值模拟的参数分析[J].地震工程与工程振动,2002,22(6):150-155.YU Shizhou,ZHAO Zhendong,ZHONG Jiangrong.Analysis of parameters for numerical simulation of poison gas leakage and diffusion in destruc-tive earthquake[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,2002,22(6):150-155.(in Chinese)
[13]陈晓敏,刘林飞,姚海波.运动毒源泄漏事故中毒区域定量预测[J].职业与健康,2008,24(9):829-830.CHEN Xiaomin,LIU Linfei,YAO Haobo.Quantitative prediction of the poisoning area of leaky transportable toxicants[J].Occupation andHealth,2008,24(9):829-830.(in Chinese)
[14]饶国宁,陈网桦,胡毅亭,等.液氨泄漏事故危险性的定量分析研究[J].安全与环境学报,2004,4(S1):165-167.
[15]马玉宏,谢礼立.我国社会可接受地震人员死亡率的研究[J].自然灾害学报,2001,10(3):56-73.MA Yuhong,XIE Lili.Research on social acceptable earthquake mortality in China[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2001,10(3):56-73.(inChinese)
[16]聂高众,高建国,苏桂武,等.地震应急救助需求的模型化处理——来自地震震例的经验分析[J].资源科学,2001,1(1):69-76.NIE Gaozhong,GAO Jianguo,SU Guiwu,et al.Models on rapid jugement for the emergent rescue needs during earthquake—by analysis on postearthquake events[J].Resources Science,2001,1(1):69-76.(in Chinese)
[17]邓砚,苏桂武,聂高众.中国地震应急地区系数的初步研究[J].灾害学,2008,23(1):140-144.DENG Yan,SU Guiwu,NIE Gaozhong.The preliminary study on the regional index(RI)of earthquake emergency response(EER)of China[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2008,23(1):140-144.(in Chinese)
[18]马玉宏,谢礼立.关于地震人员伤亡因素的探讨[J].自然灾害学报,2000,9(3):84-90.MA Yuhong,XIE Lili.A study on factors influencing earthquake casualties[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2000,9(3):84-90.
[19]程家喻,杨喆.唐山地震人员震亡率与房屋倒塌率的相关分析[J].地震地质,1993,3(1):82-87.CHENG Jiayu,YANG Zhe.Regression analysis of mortality and the ratio of collapsing houses by Tangshan earthquake[J].Seismology and Geol-ogy,1993,3(1):82-87.(in Chinese)
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