文县地电场震前异常变化及其在2001年昆仑山口西M_S8.1地震预测研究中的应用
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摘要
在文县地电场观测系统中实现了地震异常信号与干扰信号的分离技术.长年的观测实践证明,文县地电场观测点是一个很灵敏的"地震窗口".研究表明,对于文县地电场观测点而言,震级、震中距、异常电信号幅度之间存在着线性关系;对带宽为0.003—30Hz的异常信号而言,震前异常的时间长短与异常开始至发震时刻的时间长短存在着密切关系,且与震中方位有关.这些关系为文县观测点预测未来地震时、空、强"三要素"提供了很有意义的经验公式,在给出昆仑山口西MS8.1地震预测意见中起到了良好的作用.
A separation technique between the seismic anomaly signals and noises was applied to the observation system of the geoelectric field at Wenxian station.The long-term observation of the geoelectric field at Wenxian station,Gansu province of China,shows that the site of the station is an "earthquake window".This study shows that there is a liner relationship among the earthquake magnitude,epicentral distance and abnormal signal amplitude of the geoelectric field recorded at Wenxian station.For the signals with bandwidth of 0.003--30 Hz,the duration time of the anomaly is related to the lead time and the azimuth of epicental location.These relationships offer an empirical basis for predicting the time,location,and magnitude of a forth coming earthquake based on the observations at the Wenxian station.These empirical relationships played an important role in an author's report on the prediction of the 2001 Kunlun MS8.1 earthquake.
A separation technique between the seismic anomaly signals and noises was applied to the observation system of the geoelectric field at Wenxian station.The long-term observation of the geoelectric field at Wenxian station,Gansu province of China,shows that the site of the station is an "earthquake window".This study shows that there is a liner relationship among the earthquake magnitude,epicentral distance and abnormal signal amplitude of the geoelectric field recorded at Wenxian station.For the signals with bandwidth of 0.003--30 Hz,the duration time of the anomaly is related to the lead time and the azimuth of epicental location.These relationships offer an empirical basis for predicting the time,location,and magnitude of a forth coming earthquake based on the observations at the Wenxian station.These empirical relationships played an important role in an author's report on the prediction of the 2001 Kunlun MS8.1 earthquake.
引文
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Uyeda S,Kumamoto A.2004.Evaluation of the Kushida method of short-termearthquake prediction[J].Proceedingsofthe Japan Academy,Series B,80(3):140--147.
Varotsos P A.1977.Temperature and pressure dependence of the defect formation volume in ionic crystals[J].J Phy-sique(Paris)Lettr,38:455--458.
Varotsos P,Alexopoulos K.1978.Calculation of the migration volume of vacancies inionic solids from macroscopic pa-rameters[J].Phys Status Solidi(A),47:K133--136.
Varotsos P.2005.The Physics of Seismic Electric Signals[M].Tokyo:Terra Pub:338.
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Varotsos P,Alexopoulos K.1984b.Physical properties of the electric field of the earth preceding earthquakes:Ⅱ.De-termination of epicenter and magnitude[J].Tectonophysics,110:99--125.
Varotsos P,Alexopoulos K,Nomicos K,Lazaridou M.1988.Official earthquake prediction procedure in Greece[J].Tectonophysics,152:193--196.
Varotsos P,Lazaridou M.1991.Latest aspects of earthquake prediction in Greece based on seismic electric signals[J].Tectonophysics,188:321--347.
Varotsos P,Lazaridou M.1993.Latest aspects of earthquake predictionin Greece based on seismic electric signalsⅡ[J].Tectonophysics,224:1--37.
江在森,张希,祝意青,张成亮,王双绪.2003.昆仑山口西MS8.1级地震前区域构造变形背景[J].中国科学:D辑,33(增刊4):163--172.
马瑾.1998.构造运动异常与地震前兆的鉴别和场源关系的研究[M]∥国家地震局科技监测司主编.大陆地震预报的方法和理论.北京:地震出版社:331--332.
钱复业,赵玉林,卢军,薛顺章.1998.孔压弱化失稳的系统辨识及大地电场短临前兆[M]∥石特临主编.地震地电学发展与展望.兰州:兰州大学出版社:151--155.
钱复业,赵玉林.2005.地电场短临预报方法研究[J].地震,25(2):33--40.
钱书清,郝锦绮,周建国,高金田,王玫玲,梁静.2001.1999年9月21日台湾集集MS7.4地震前ULF电磁信号及其与模拟试验结果的比较[J].地震学报,3(3):322--327.
邵顺妹,邹谨敞,谢原定,周建国.1995.甘肃礼县新生代玄武岩的特征及其与地震的关系[J].高原地震,7(2):48--53.
赵玉林,李正南,钱复业,王玲,陈宝华,黄燕妮.1995.地电前兆从中期向短临过渡的综合判据[J].地震,15(4):308--314.
Corwin R F,Morrison HF.1995.Self-potential variations preceding earthquakes in central California[J].Geophys ResLett,4:171--174.
Hattori K,Takahashi I,Yoshino C,NagaoT,Liu J Y.Shieh C F.2002.ULF Geomagnetic and geopotential measure-ment at China-Yi,Tai wan[J].Journal of At mospheric Electricity,22(3):217--222.
Hattori K.2004.ULF geomagnetic changes associated withlarge earthquakes[J].TAO,15(3):329--360.
Hayakawa M,Itoh T,Hattori K,Yumoto K.2000.ULFelectromagnetic precursors for an earthquake at Biak.Indone-sia on17February1996[J].Geophys Res Lett,27:1531--1534.
Kinoshita M,Uyeshi ma M,Uyeda S.1989.Earthquake prediction research by means of telluric potential monitoring[J].Bull Earthq Res Inst,Univ Tokyo,64:255--311.
Lighthill J.1996.Abrief look back at the review meeting’s proceedings[M].J Lighthill ed.ACritical Reviewof VANEarthquake Prediction From Seismic Electrical Signal.Singapore:World Scientific:349--356.
Nagao T,Uyedays S,Asai Y.1996.Anomalous changes in geoelectric potential preceding four earthquakes in Japan[M].J Lighthill ed.ACritical Reviewof VANEarthquake Prediction FromSeismic Electrical Signal.Singapore:World Scientific:292--300.
Richard L A,Stephen K P.1996.Statistical evaluation of the VAN method using the historic earthquake catalog inGreece.Debate on“VAN”[J].Geophys Res Lett,23(11):1425--1428.
Uyeda S,Nagao T,Orihara Y,Yamaguchi T,Takahashi I.2000.I:Geoelectric potential changes:Possible precursorsto earthquakesin Japan[J].Proc Nat Acad Sci,97:4561--4566.
Uyeda S,Nagao T,Hattori K,Hayakawa M,Miyaki K,Molchanov O,Gladychev Y,Aransky L,Chtchekotov A,Fe-dorov E,Pokhotelov O,Andreevsky S,Rozhnoi A,Khabazin Y,Gorbatikov A,Gordeev E,Chebrov V,SinitzinV,Lutikov A,Yunga S,Kosarev G,Surkov V,Belyaev G.2001.Geophysical observatoryin Kamchatka regionformonitoring of phenomena connected with seismic activity[J].Natural Hazards and Earth SystemSciences,1:3--7.
Uyeda S,Kumamoto A.2004.Evaluation of the Kushida method of short-termearthquake prediction[J].Proceedingsofthe Japan Academy,Series B,80(3):140--147.
Varotsos P A.1977.Temperature and pressure dependence of the defect formation volume in ionic crystals[J].J Phy-sique(Paris)Lettr,38:455--458.
Varotsos P,Alexopoulos K.1978.Calculation of the migration volume of vacancies inionic solids from macroscopic pa-rameters[J].Phys Status Solidi(A),47:K133--136.
Varotsos P.2005.The Physics of Seismic Electric Signals[M].Tokyo:Terra Pub:338.
Varotsos P,Alexopoulos K.1984a.Physical properties of the variations of the electric field of the earth preceding earth-quakesⅠ[J].Tectonophysics,110:73--98.
Varotsos P,Alexopoulos K.1984b.Physical properties of the electric field of the earth preceding earthquakes:Ⅱ.De-termination of epicenter and magnitude[J].Tectonophysics,110:99--125.
Varotsos P,Alexopoulos K,Nomicos K,Lazaridou M.1988.Official earthquake prediction procedure in Greece[J].Tectonophysics,152:193--196.
Varotsos P,Lazaridou M.1991.Latest aspects of earthquake prediction in Greece based on seismic electric signals[J].Tectonophysics,188:321--347.
Varotsos P,Lazaridou M.1993.Latest aspects of earthquake predictionin Greece based on seismic electric signalsⅡ[J].Tectonophysics,224:1--37.
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