2008年乌恰—塔什库尔干6.5±0.5级地震危险区短临跟踪与定点前兆异常分析
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摘要
新疆乌恰—塔什库尔干地区为2008年度圈定的6.5级左右地震危险区,1年来对该地震危险区进行了短临跟踪,2008年10月5日发生了预期地震。总结了震前定点前兆异常实时跟踪分析及震情监视情况:①监测区及其附近多数台站近一半监测手段,约13的台项出现异常;②异常以应力、应变、形变异常为主;③异常以短期、短临异常为主;④多学科有异常配套性,但同一测项、同一台站异常配套性不佳;⑤异常有协同性,不同台站、不同手段、不同距离的观测项目几乎同时出现异常;⑥震前有确定性、无争议性异常,也有不确定性、有争议的异常;⑦震前对资料的分析和震情判断基本是正确的,但也有吃不准的一面。震情跟踪实践证实,震前异常的认定与观测资料本身、工作的细致性及预报人员的经验关系极大,跟踪要比不跟踪好,只要用心工作,震前就有可能捕捉到用于地震预测的地球物理前兆信息,有可能在震前有所作为。
On October 5,2008,Wuqia MS6.9 earthquake occurred in an annual earthquake risk region of Wuqia-Tashikuergan in Xinjiang.Before the earthquake,we have made a successful prediction in some sense.In this paper,we introduce the process of tracing and analyzing the short and imminent-term precursory anomalies in detail,and make some conclusions listed as the following: ① Most of observation stations,a half of observation instruments and one-third of observation items showed anomalies;② The instruments with precursory anomalies mostly consist of stress,strain and ground tilt;③ Short and imminent-term anomalies are dominant;④ There is a good consistency among all subjects,not a single subject or station;⑤ Some anomalies are synchronous,in spite of whether they belong to the same observation site,the same kind of observation instrument or have an equal epicentral distance;⑥ Some anomalies are confirmed,and others are unconfirmed;⑦ Analysis and estimation about the earthquake are correct approximately.We think that the certainty of the anomalies depends on the quality of observation data,the particularity of analysis and the amount of prediction experience.The practice of the prediction on Wuqia MS6.9 earthquake proves that some earthquakes can be predicted in some sense.
On October 5,2008,Wuqia MS6.9 earthquake occurred in an annual earthquake risk region of Wuqia-Tashikuergan in Xinjiang.Before the earthquake,we have made a successful prediction in some sense.In this paper,we introduce the process of tracing and analyzing the short and imminent-term precursory anomalies in detail,and make some conclusions listed as the following: ① Most of observation stations,a half of observation instruments and one-third of observation items showed anomalies;② The instruments with precursory anomalies mostly consist of stress,strain and ground tilt;③ Short and imminent-term anomalies are dominant;④ There is a good consistency among all subjects,not a single subject or station;⑤ Some anomalies are synchronous,in spite of whether they belong to the same observation site,the same kind of observation instrument or have an equal epicentral distance;⑥ Some anomalies are confirmed,and others are unconfirmed;⑦ Analysis and estimation about the earthquake are correct approximately.We think that the certainty of the anomalies depends on the quality of observation data,the particularity of analysis and the amount of prediction experience.The practice of the prediction on Wuqia MS6.9 earthquake proves that some earthquakes can be predicted in some sense.
引文
[1]苏恺之.地应变观测资料的物理解释(二)——气压、水位和降雨干扰//钻孔地应变观测新进展[C].北京.地震出版社,2008.
[2]李杰,王晓强,王琪,等.乌恰伽师地区GPS地壳运动监测网研究[J].内陆地震,2005,18(3):281-288.
[3]刘桂萍.谈2003年几次成功的短期地震预报[J].国际地震动态,2004,(2):19-20.
①2008年度新疆地震趋势会商会部分震情研究报告汇编.
②新疆地震局科技档案8518号.
[2]李杰,王晓强,王琪,等.乌恰伽师地区GPS地壳运动监测网研究[J].内陆地震,2005,18(3):281-288.
[3]刘桂萍.谈2003年几次成功的短期地震预报[J].国际地震动态,2004,(2):19-20.
①2008年度新疆地震趋势会商会部分震情研究报告汇编.
②新疆地震局科技档案8518号.
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