根据截断的G-R模型计算东北地震区震级上限
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摘要
震级上限是指一个地区可能发生地震的最大震级,其概率意义为发生超过该震级地震的概率几乎为0.在有些地区,由于对其内部的地震构造研究和认识存有局限性,很难根据构造或者地质学的原则来确定震级上限.因此,根据数学模型,采用统计手段,使用地震活动性资料来计算震级上限的估计值是一种可行的方法.本文根据截断的G-R关系模型,采用最大似然计算方法,使用东北地震区的地震目录,计算了东北地震区震级上限,结果表明东北地震区的震级上限应为Mu=7.5左右.计算中我们考虑了不同震级的转换、震级误差的修正以及计算方法的影响.最终结果表明,不论采用何种方案进行计算,东北地震区的震级上限值均始终保持在7.5左右,这说明我们采用本文中方法计算得到的东北地震区的震级上限值是合理可信的,同时也说明在以往的研究中对东北地震区震级上限的估计大都是偏小的.
The upper bound earthquake magnitude(Mu) means the largest possible magnitude of earthquakes occurring in the seismic source zone.The expected probability of the earthquake with a magnitude exceeding the upper bound tends to zero.In some regions,because of the limited knowledge of seismic structures and the cause of earthquake formation,we can hardly estimate the value of the upper bound earthquake magnitude according to tectonics and geology.It is feasible to use statistical method and seismic catalog to calculate the estimated value of the upper bound earthquake magnitude according to a mathematical model.In this study,we estimate the upper bound earthquake magnitude from seismic catalog in Northeast seismic region according to the truncated G-R relationship.The result shows that the upper bound earthquake magnitude in Northeast seismic region Mu is about 7.5.We have considered the influence from the transformation between different magnitude scales,the correction for magnitude errors and the different mathematical methods used in calculation,the final results all show that the Mu always maintains a constant value which is about 7.5.Our study indicates that the estimated value of upper bound earthquake magnitude Mu=7.5 is reasonable,and the estimated value of upper bound earthquake magnitude Mu=7.0 in past studies is too small.
The upper bound earthquake magnitude(Mu) means the largest possible magnitude of earthquakes occurring in the seismic source zone.The expected probability of the earthquake with a magnitude exceeding the upper bound tends to zero.In some regions,because of the limited knowledge of seismic structures and the cause of earthquake formation,we can hardly estimate the value of the upper bound earthquake magnitude according to tectonics and geology.It is feasible to use statistical method and seismic catalog to calculate the estimated value of the upper bound earthquake magnitude according to a mathematical model.In this study,we estimate the upper bound earthquake magnitude from seismic catalog in Northeast seismic region according to the truncated G-R relationship.The result shows that the upper bound earthquake magnitude in Northeast seismic region Mu is about 7.5.We have considered the influence from the transformation between different magnitude scales,the correction for magnitude errors and the different mathematical methods used in calculation,the final results all show that the Mu always maintains a constant value which is about 7.5.Our study indicates that the estimated value of upper bound earthquake magnitude Mu=7.5 is reasonable,and the estimated value of upper bound earthquake magnitude Mu=7.0 in past studies is too small.
引文
1)中国地震局地质研究所.中国地震区、带划分修改方案简要说明.2008.
2)吕悦军.1990年后中国及邻区地震目录.中国地震动参数区划图技术报告.2010.
3)郭履灿.华北地区的地方性震级M L和面波震级M S经验关系.1971.全国地震工作会议资料.1-10.
4)高孟潭,徐伟进,周本刚.采用截断的G-R关系式来求取震级上限的普适性研究.2011
[1]Ward S N.More on M max.Bull.Seism.Soc.Am.,1997,87(5):119-1208.
[2]Petersen M D,Frankel A D,Harmsen S C,et al.Documentation for the2008Update of the United States National Seismic Hazard Maps.U.S.Geol.Surv.Open-File Rept,2008,2008-1128.
[3]冉洪流.潜在震源区震级上限不确定性研究.地震学报,2009,31(4):396-402.Ran H L.Research on uncertainty of upper limit earthquake magnitude in potential seismic source zone.Acta Seismologica Sinica(in Chinese),2009,31(4):396-402.
[4]Cornell C A,Vanmarcke E H.The major influences on seismic risk.in Proc.of the Fourth World Conference on Earthquake Engineering,January1969,Santiago,Chile,A-1,69-93.
[5]Mueller C S.The influence of maximum magnitude on seismic-hazard estimates in the central and eastern united states.Bull.Seism.Soc.Am.,2010,100(2):699-711.
[6]Gutenberg B,Richter C F.Frequency of earthquakes in California.Bull.Seism.Soc.Am.,1944,34(4):185-188.
[7]国家地震局震害防御司.中国历史强震目录(公元前23世纪-公元1911年).北京:地震出版社,1995.Department of Earthquake Disaster Prevention,National Earthquake Administration.The Catalogue of Chinese Historical Strong Earthquakes(23th Century BC-1911AD)(in Chinese).Beijing:Seismological Press,1995.
[8]中国地震局震害防御局.中国近代地震目录(公元1912-公元1990年).北京:科学技术出版社,1999.Department of Earthquake Disaster Prevention,China Earthquake Administration.The Catalogue of Modern Earthquakes in China(A.D.1912-A.D.1990,M S≥4.7)(in Chinese).Beijing:China Science and Technology Publishing House,1999.
[9]Frankel A C,Mueller C,Barnhard T,et al.National Seismic-Hazard Maps:Documentation June1996,U.S.Geol.Surv.Open-File Rept,1996,96-532.
[10]黄玮琼,李文香,曹学锋.中国大陆地震资料完整性研究之二分区地震资料基本完整的起始年分布图像.地震学报,1994,16(4):423-432.Huang W Q,Li W X,Cao X F.Completeness analysis for earthquake data in China Main LandⅡ.Acta Seismologica Sinica(in Chinese),1994,16(4):423-432.
[11]吴兆营,薄景山,刘志平等.东北地震区b值和地震年平均发生率的统计分析.东北地震研究,2005,21(3):27-32.Wu Z Y,Bo J S,Liu Z P,et al.Statistical analysis on b value and earthquake yearly average occurrence ratio in northeast seismic zone.SeismologicalR esearch of Northeast China(in Chinese),2005,21(3):27-32.
[12]胡聿贤、高孟潭.GB18306-2001《中国地震动参数区划图》宣贯教材.北京:中国标准出版社,2001.Hu Y X,Gao M T.A Tutorial of the GB 18306-2001,Seismic Ground Motion Parameter Zoning Map of China(in Chinese).Beijing:China Standard Press,2001.
[13]张宏志,刁桂苓,赵明淳等.不同标度震级关系和台基影响问题探讨.中国地震,2007,23(2):141-146.Zhang H Z,Diao G L,Zhao M C,et al.Discussion on relation between different earthquake magnitude scales and effect of seismic station site on magnitude estimation.Earthquake Research in China(in Chinese),2007,23(2):141-146.
[14]刘瑞丰,陈运泰,任枭等.中国地震台网震级的对比.地震学报,2007,29(5):467-476.Liu R F,Chen Y T,Ren X,et al.Comparison between different earthquake magnitudes determined by China seismograph network.Acta Seismologica Sinica(in Chinese),2007,29(5):467-476.
[15]汪素云,王健,俞言祥等.基于中国地震台网观测报告的M L与M S经验关系.中国地震,2010,26(1):14-22.Wang S Y,Wang J,Yu Y X,et al.The empirical relation between M L and M S based on bulletin of seismological observations of Chinese stations.Earthquake Research in China(in Chinese),2010,26(1):14-22.
[16]Akaike H.A new look at the statistical model identification.IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control,1974,19(6):716-723.
[17]Tinti S,Mulargia F.Effects of magnitude uncertainties on estimating the parameters in the gutenberg-richter frequency-magnitude law.Bull.Seis.Soc.Am.,1985,75(6):1681-1697.
[18]Rhoades D A.Estimation of the Gutenberg-Richter relation allowing for individual earthquake magnitude uncertainties.Tectonophysics,1996,258(1-4s):71-83.
[19]Felzer Karen R.Appendix I-Calculating California seismicity rates,in Earthquake Rate Model2.2of the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities.U.S.Geol.Surv.Open-File Rept,2007,2007-1437I.
[20]迟振才,迟天峰.两种震级标度讨论.东北地震研究,2000,16(4):9-15.Chi Z C,Chi T F.Discussion on two magnitude scales.Seismological Research of Northeast China(in Chinese),2000,16(4):9-15.
[21]闵伟,焦德成,周本刚等.依兰—伊通断裂全新世活动的新发现及其意义.地震地质,2011,33(1):141-150.Min W,Jiao D C,Zhou B G,et al.The significance of discovery on Holocene activity on the Yilan-Yitong fault in Northeast China.Seismology and Geology(in Chinese),2011,33(1):141-150.
2)吕悦军.1990年后中国及邻区地震目录.中国地震动参数区划图技术报告.2010.
3)郭履灿.华北地区的地方性震级M L和面波震级M S经验关系.1971.全国地震工作会议资料.1-10.
4)高孟潭,徐伟进,周本刚.采用截断的G-R关系式来求取震级上限的普适性研究.2011
[1]Ward S N.More on M max.Bull.Seism.Soc.Am.,1997,87(5):119-1208.
[2]Petersen M D,Frankel A D,Harmsen S C,et al.Documentation for the2008Update of the United States National Seismic Hazard Maps.U.S.Geol.Surv.Open-File Rept,2008,2008-1128.
[3]冉洪流.潜在震源区震级上限不确定性研究.地震学报,2009,31(4):396-402.Ran H L.Research on uncertainty of upper limit earthquake magnitude in potential seismic source zone.Acta Seismologica Sinica(in Chinese),2009,31(4):396-402.
[4]Cornell C A,Vanmarcke E H.The major influences on seismic risk.in Proc.of the Fourth World Conference on Earthquake Engineering,January1969,Santiago,Chile,A-1,69-93.
[5]Mueller C S.The influence of maximum magnitude on seismic-hazard estimates in the central and eastern united states.Bull.Seism.Soc.Am.,2010,100(2):699-711.
[6]Gutenberg B,Richter C F.Frequency of earthquakes in California.Bull.Seism.Soc.Am.,1944,34(4):185-188.
[7]国家地震局震害防御司.中国历史强震目录(公元前23世纪-公元1911年).北京:地震出版社,1995.Department of Earthquake Disaster Prevention,National Earthquake Administration.The Catalogue of Chinese Historical Strong Earthquakes(23th Century BC-1911AD)(in Chinese).Beijing:Seismological Press,1995.
[8]中国地震局震害防御局.中国近代地震目录(公元1912-公元1990年).北京:科学技术出版社,1999.Department of Earthquake Disaster Prevention,China Earthquake Administration.The Catalogue of Modern Earthquakes in China(A.D.1912-A.D.1990,M S≥4.7)(in Chinese).Beijing:China Science and Technology Publishing House,1999.
[9]Frankel A C,Mueller C,Barnhard T,et al.National Seismic-Hazard Maps:Documentation June1996,U.S.Geol.Surv.Open-File Rept,1996,96-532.
[10]黄玮琼,李文香,曹学锋.中国大陆地震资料完整性研究之二分区地震资料基本完整的起始年分布图像.地震学报,1994,16(4):423-432.Huang W Q,Li W X,Cao X F.Completeness analysis for earthquake data in China Main LandⅡ.Acta Seismologica Sinica(in Chinese),1994,16(4):423-432.
[11]吴兆营,薄景山,刘志平等.东北地震区b值和地震年平均发生率的统计分析.东北地震研究,2005,21(3):27-32.Wu Z Y,Bo J S,Liu Z P,et al.Statistical analysis on b value and earthquake yearly average occurrence ratio in northeast seismic zone.SeismologicalR esearch of Northeast China(in Chinese),2005,21(3):27-32.
[12]胡聿贤、高孟潭.GB18306-2001《中国地震动参数区划图》宣贯教材.北京:中国标准出版社,2001.Hu Y X,Gao M T.A Tutorial of the GB 18306-2001,Seismic Ground Motion Parameter Zoning Map of China(in Chinese).Beijing:China Standard Press,2001.
[13]张宏志,刁桂苓,赵明淳等.不同标度震级关系和台基影响问题探讨.中国地震,2007,23(2):141-146.Zhang H Z,Diao G L,Zhao M C,et al.Discussion on relation between different earthquake magnitude scales and effect of seismic station site on magnitude estimation.Earthquake Research in China(in Chinese),2007,23(2):141-146.
[14]刘瑞丰,陈运泰,任枭等.中国地震台网震级的对比.地震学报,2007,29(5):467-476.Liu R F,Chen Y T,Ren X,et al.Comparison between different earthquake magnitudes determined by China seismograph network.Acta Seismologica Sinica(in Chinese),2007,29(5):467-476.
[15]汪素云,王健,俞言祥等.基于中国地震台网观测报告的M L与M S经验关系.中国地震,2010,26(1):14-22.Wang S Y,Wang J,Yu Y X,et al.The empirical relation between M L and M S based on bulletin of seismological observations of Chinese stations.Earthquake Research in China(in Chinese),2010,26(1):14-22.
[16]Akaike H.A new look at the statistical model identification.IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control,1974,19(6):716-723.
[17]Tinti S,Mulargia F.Effects of magnitude uncertainties on estimating the parameters in the gutenberg-richter frequency-magnitude law.Bull.Seis.Soc.Am.,1985,75(6):1681-1697.
[18]Rhoades D A.Estimation of the Gutenberg-Richter relation allowing for individual earthquake magnitude uncertainties.Tectonophysics,1996,258(1-4s):71-83.
[19]Felzer Karen R.Appendix I-Calculating California seismicity rates,in Earthquake Rate Model2.2of the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities.U.S.Geol.Surv.Open-File Rept,2007,2007-1437I.
[20]迟振才,迟天峰.两种震级标度讨论.东北地震研究,2000,16(4):9-15.Chi Z C,Chi T F.Discussion on two magnitude scales.Seismological Research of Northeast China(in Chinese),2000,16(4):9-15.
[21]闵伟,焦德成,周本刚等.依兰—伊通断裂全新世活动的新发现及其意义.地震地质,2011,33(1):141-150.Min W,Jiao D C,Zhou B G,et al.The significance of discovery on Holocene activity on the Yilan-Yitong fault in Northeast China.Seismology and Geology(in Chinese),2011,33(1):141-150.
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