俯冲带上特大地震静态库仑应力变化对后续余震触发效果的研究
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摘要
地震静态触发研究在全世界范围内广泛开展,并取得显著成效;但是否所有的大地震,地震静态触发都有很好的效果,对此目前还不甚清楚.本文通过计算最近发生在俯冲带上的三次特大地震(2011年日本东北地震(Mw=9.1)、2010年智利地震(Mw=8.8)与2004年苏门答腊—安达曼地震(Mw=9.0))所产生的静态库仑应力变化,考察主震库仑应力变化对其后续余震空间分布的影响,从而研究俯冲带上特大地震对地震的触发效果.计算结果显示:对于2011年日本东北地震,仅有47%的后续余震发生在库仑应力增加的区域;2010年智利地震也只有47.6%的余震位置处于库仑应力变化的正值区;2004年苏门答腊地震触发了49.8%的后续余震.文中通过进一步改变模型参数(如:采用不同的有效摩擦系数,使用不同作者给出的震源模型等)进行计算,结果表明这三大地震对后续余震的触发比例仍然不高(最好情况下,触发比例也不超过60%).但对于板内地震(如:2008年汶川地震,1999年集集地震),主震对后续余震的触发比例超过85%.由此可以推知,对于俯冲带上的特大地震,地震静态触发效果不显著.因此,对于俯冲带上大地震的触发问题,还需深入研究.
Research on static earthquake triggering has been carried out widely in the world,and achieved remarkable results.But it is still unclear whether this model is effective to all large earthquakes.In this paper,we investigated Coulomb stress changes of the 3 megathrust earthquakes along subduction zone(the 2011 Mw9.1 Tohoku earthquake,the 2010 Mw8.8 Chile earthquake and the 2004 Mw9.0 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake) which occurred in this century to test the triggering effects by examining the correlation between Coulomb stress increases and spatial distribution of the following aftershocks.The calculated results suggest that there is no obvious evidence that the Coulomb stress changes caused by the 3 megathrust earthquakes promoted the occurrence of the aftershocks.There are only 47% of the encouraged aftershocks following the Tohoku earthquake.And there are 47.6% and 49.8% for the Sumatra-Andaman and the Chile earthquake,respectively.We also calculated the Coulomb stress changes with different focal models and parameters.It is still less than 60% of the promoted aftershocks in the optimal case.However,the static triggering model is good for the Wenchuan earthquake and the Chi-Chi earthquake which have enhanced more than 85% of the subsequent aftershocks.This model may be not reasonable for large subduction earthquakes.Therefore,other model should be introduced in studying earthquake triggering in subduction zone and further studies will be performed.
Research on static earthquake triggering has been carried out widely in the world,and achieved remarkable results.But it is still unclear whether this model is effective to all large earthquakes.In this paper,we investigated Coulomb stress changes of the 3 megathrust earthquakes along subduction zone(the 2011 Mw9.1 Tohoku earthquake,the 2010 Mw8.8 Chile earthquake and the 2004 Mw9.0 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake) which occurred in this century to test the triggering effects by examining the correlation between Coulomb stress increases and spatial distribution of the following aftershocks.The calculated results suggest that there is no obvious evidence that the Coulomb stress changes caused by the 3 megathrust earthquakes promoted the occurrence of the aftershocks.There are only 47% of the encouraged aftershocks following the Tohoku earthquake.And there are 47.6% and 49.8% for the Sumatra-Andaman and the Chile earthquake,respectively.We also calculated the Coulomb stress changes with different focal models and parameters.It is still less than 60% of the promoted aftershocks in the optimal case.However,the static triggering model is good for the Wenchuan earthquake and the Chi-Chi earthquake which have enhanced more than 85% of the subsequent aftershocks.This model may be not reasonable for large subduction earthquakes.Therefore,other model should be introduced in studying earthquake triggering in subduction zone and further studies will be performed.
引文
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[3]King G C P,Cocco M.Fault interaction by elastic stresschanges:New clues from earthquake sequences.Advances inGeophysics,2001,44:1-38,I-VIII.
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[8]Deng J S,Sykes L R.Evolution of the stress field in southernCalifornia and triggering of moderate-size earthquakes:A200-year perspective.J.Geophys.Res.,1997,102(B5):9859-9886.
[9]Stein R S,Barka A A,Dieterich J H.Progressive failure onthe North Anatolian fault since 1939by earthquake stresstriggering.Geophysical Journal International,1997,128(3):594-604.
[10]万永革,吴忠良,周公威等.几次复杂地震中不同破裂事件之间的“应力触发”问题.地震学报,2000,22(6):568-576.Wan Y G,Wu Z L,Zhou G W,et al."Stress triggering"between different rupture events in several earthquakes.ActaSeismologica Sinica(in Chinese),2000,22(6):568-576.
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[12]朱航,闻学泽.1973～1976年四川松潘强震序列的应力触发过程.地球物理学报,2009,52(4):994-1003.Zhu H,Wen X Z.Stress triggering process of the 1973to1976Songpan,Sichuan,sequence of strong earthquakes.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2009,52(4):994-1003.
[13]Okada Y.Internal deformation due to shear and tensile faultsin a half-space.Bulletin of the Seismological Society ofAmerica,1992,82(2):1018-1040.
[14]Ziv A,Rubin A M.Static stress transfer and earthquaketriggering:No lower threshold in sight?J.Geophys.Res.,2000,105(B6):13631-13642.
[15]Stein R S,Lisowski M.The 1979 Homestead Valleyearthquake sequence,California:control of aftershocks andpostseismic deformation.J.Geophys.Res.,1983,88(B8):6477-6490.
[16]DeMets C.Oblique convergence and deformation along theKuril and Japan Trenches.J.Geophys.Res.,1992,97(B12):17615-17625.
[17]Wei S,Sladen A.Slip-history database:2011 Tohoku-okiEarthquake.2011:http://www.tectonics.caltech.edu/slip_history/2011_taiheiyo-oki/index.html.
[18]Lin J,Stein R S.Stress triggering in thrust and subductionearthquakes and stress interaction between the southern SanAndreas and nearby thrust and strike-slip faults.J.Geophys.Res.,2004,109(B2):B02303.
[19]Barazangi M,Isacks B L.Spatial distribution of earthquakesand subduction of the Nazca plate beneath South America.Geology,1976,4(11):686-692.
[20]Kelleher J A.Rupture zones of large South Americanearthquakes and some predictions.J.Geophys.Res.,1972,77(11):2087-2103.
[21]Hayes G.Finite Fault Model,Updated Result of the Feb 27,2010 Mw8.8 Maule,Chile Earthquake 2010:http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqinthenews/2010/us2010tfan/finite_fault.php.
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[23]Delouis B,Nocquet J M,Vallée M.Slip distribution of theFebruary 27,2010 Mw=8.8 Maule Earthquake,centralChile,from static and high-rate GPS,InSAR,and broadbandteleseismic data.Geophys.Res.Lett.,2010,37(17):L17305.
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[26]Pollitz F F,Banerjee P,Bürgmann R,et al.Stress changesalong the Sunda trench following the 26 December 2004Sumatra-Andaman and 28 March 2005 Nias earthquakes.Geophys.Res.Lett.,2006,33(6):L06309.
[27]Shao G,Li X,Ji C,et al.Preliminary result of the Mar 11,2011 Mw9.1Honshu Earthquake.2011:http://www.geol.ucsb.edu/faculty/ji/big_earthquakes/2011/03/0311/Honshu_main.html.
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[32]Parsons T,Ji C,Kirby E.Stress changes from the 2008Wenchuan earthquake and increased hazard in the Sichuanbasin.Nature,2008,454(7203):509-510.
[33]解朝娣,朱元清,Lei X L等.Ms8.0汶川地震产生的应力变化空间分布及其对地震活动性的影响.中国科学:D辑,2010,40(6):688-698.Xie C D,Zhu Y Q,Lei X L,et al.Pattern of stress changeand its effect on seismicity rate caused by Ms8.0 Wenchuanearthquake.Sci.China Earth Sci.(in Chinese),2010,40(6):688-698.
[34]Wang J C,Shieh C F,Chang T M.Static stress changes as atriggering mechanism of a shallow earthquake:case study ofthe 1999Chi-Chi(Taiwan)earthquake.Physics of the Earthand Planetary Interiors,2003,135(1):17-25.
[35]邵志刚,傅容珊,薛霆虓等.库仑应力变化与余震对应关系的初步探讨—以集集地震为例.地球物理学进展,2009,24(2):367-374.Shao Z G,Fu R S,Xue T H,et al.Discussion about therelation of Coulumb stress changes and distribution ofaftershocks for the case of the Chi-Chi earthquake.Progressin Geophys(in Chinese),2009,24(2):367-374.
[36]Ma K F,Chan C H,Stein R S.Response of seismicity toCoulomb stress triggers and shadows of the 1999 Mw=7.6Chi-Chi,Taiwan,earthquake.J.Geophys.Res.,2005,110(B5):B05S19.
[37]Zhan Z,Jin B,Wei S,et al.Coulomb stress changesensitivity due to variability in mainshock source models andreceiving fault parameters:A case study of the 2010-2011christchurch,New Zealand,Earthquakes.SeismologicalResearch Letters,2011,82(6):800-814.
[38]Díez M,La Femina P C,Connor C B,et al.Evidence forstatic stress changes triggering the 1999eruption of CerroNegro Volcano,Nicaragua and regional aftershock sequences.Geophys.Res.Lett.,2005,32(4):L04309.
[39]Mueller K,Hough S E,Bilham R.Analysing the 1811—1812 New Madrid earthquakes with recent instrumentallyrecorded aftershocks.Nature,2004,429(6989):284-288.
[40]Stramondo S,Kyriakopoulos C,Bignami C,et al.Did theSeptember 2010(Darfield)earthquake trigger the February2011(Christchurch)event?Sci.Rep.,2011,1,doi:10.1038/srep00098.
[41]Kilb D,Gomberg J,Bodin P.Triggering of earthquakeaftershocks by dynamic stresses.Nature,2000,408(6812):570-574.
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