基于强震台网的我国沿海海啸走时预警
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摘要
经济快速发展的中国沿海地区,面临着潜在海啸袭击危险。海啸传播走时分析是海啸预警系统的重要组成部分。本文基于强震台网提供的地震要素,从理论上讨论海啸预警时间计算方法。在球坐标系下,建立了远洋海啸传播模型,采用差分技术,实现远洋海啸传播数值模拟,首次针对我国主要城市进行了海啸走时计算,分析了我国沿海走时特点,指出了未来发生在太平洋的远洋海啸对我国的长江三角洲会有较大影响。本文计算海啸走时方法可以为我国建设的新一代基于数值海啸预警系统提供技术支持。
Tsunami waves are the potential natural hazards suffered by the population living near the China coasts and the estimation of tsunami travel time is an effective way to mitigate the tsunami disaster.Based on the strong ground motion network,the theoretical concept of tsunami warning time is given.Under the spherical coordinate,the tsunami propagation model is built to simulate the transoceanic-tsunami travel time by finite difference method.The mathematical techniques and the details of the computations for the tsunami travel-time charts of the Chinese coast are described for the scenario tsunamigenic earthquakes and the results show the Shanghai economic zone has the highest tsunami hazard compared with other China coastal areas.The method suggested in this paper can be applied in the China tsunami warning system.
Tsunami waves are the potential natural hazards suffered by the population living near the China coasts and the estimation of tsunami travel time is an effective way to mitigate the tsunami disaster.Based on the strong ground motion network,the theoretical concept of tsunami warning time is given.Under the spherical coordinate,the tsunami propagation model is built to simulate the transoceanic-tsunami travel time by finite difference method.The mathematical techniques and the details of the computations for the tsunami travel-time charts of the Chinese coast are described for the scenario tsunamigenic earthquakes and the results show the Shanghai economic zone has the highest tsunami hazard compared with other China coastal areas.The method suggested in this paper can be applied in the China tsunami warning system.
引文
[1]G reen R.The sweep of long water waves across the Pacific Ocean[J].Australia Journal of Physics,1961,14:120~128.
[2]Zetler B D.Travel tim es of seism ic sea waves to Honolu lu[J].Pacific science,1947,203(1):185~188.
[3]Shok in Y I,et al.Calcu lations of tsunam i travel tim es charts in the Pacific Ocean(models,algorithm s,techn iques,resu lts)[J].Science ofTsu-nam iHazards,1987,5(2):85~122.
[4]W eissert T P.Tsunam i travel tim e charts for the Caribbean[J].Science O f Tsunam iHazards,1990,8(2):67-78.
[5]Titov V V,Gonzalez F I.Implem entation and testing of the m ethod of splitting tsunam i(MOST)model[R].NOAA Techn icalM emorandum ERLPMEL-112,1997.
[6]Sh i F Y,et al.A fu lly non linear Boussinesq model in generalized curvilinear coord inates[J].Coastal Engineering,2001,42:337~358.
[7]Imamura F,Shuto N,Goto C.Num erical simu lations of the transocean ic propagation of tsunam is.Proc.6 th Congress Asian and Pacific RegionalD ivision[C].IAHR,Japan,1988.265~272.
[8]Lynett P,L iu P.A num erical study of submarine landslide generated waves and runups.Proceed ings of Royal Society of London[C].London,2002,2885-2910.
[9]温瑞智,公茂盛,谢礼立.海啸预警系统及我国海啸减灾任务[J].自然灾害学报,2006,15(3)(待发表)
[10]John D A.Computional flu id dynam ics-the basics w ith applications[M].M cG raw H ill1,1995.
[11]Okada Y.Surface deformation to shear and tensile fau lts in a half-space[J].Bu lletin of the Seismological Society of Am erica,1985,75(4):1135~1154.
[12]刘昌森.地震海啸及其对上海的影响[J].上海地质,1992,43(3):10~18.
[13]Mansinha L,Smylie D E.The d isplacem ent fields of inclined fau lts[J].Bu lletin of the Seismological Society ofAm erica,1971,61(2):1433~1440.
[14]neic.usgs.gov/neis/travel_tim es/compute_tt.htm l.
[2]Zetler B D.Travel tim es of seism ic sea waves to Honolu lu[J].Pacific science,1947,203(1):185~188.
[3]Shok in Y I,et al.Calcu lations of tsunam i travel tim es charts in the Pacific Ocean(models,algorithm s,techn iques,resu lts)[J].Science ofTsu-nam iHazards,1987,5(2):85~122.
[4]W eissert T P.Tsunam i travel tim e charts for the Caribbean[J].Science O f Tsunam iHazards,1990,8(2):67-78.
[5]Titov V V,Gonzalez F I.Implem entation and testing of the m ethod of splitting tsunam i(MOST)model[R].NOAA Techn icalM emorandum ERLPMEL-112,1997.
[6]Sh i F Y,et al.A fu lly non linear Boussinesq model in generalized curvilinear coord inates[J].Coastal Engineering,2001,42:337~358.
[7]Imamura F,Shuto N,Goto C.Num erical simu lations of the transocean ic propagation of tsunam is.Proc.6 th Congress Asian and Pacific RegionalD ivision[C].IAHR,Japan,1988.265~272.
[8]Lynett P,L iu P.A num erical study of submarine landslide generated waves and runups.Proceed ings of Royal Society of London[C].London,2002,2885-2910.
[9]温瑞智,公茂盛,谢礼立.海啸预警系统及我国海啸减灾任务[J].自然灾害学报,2006,15(3)(待发表)
[10]John D A.Computional flu id dynam ics-the basics w ith applications[M].M cG raw H ill1,1995.
[11]Okada Y.Surface deformation to shear and tensile fau lts in a half-space[J].Bu lletin of the Seismological Society of Am erica,1985,75(4):1135~1154.
[12]刘昌森.地震海啸及其对上海的影响[J].上海地质,1992,43(3):10~18.
[13]Mansinha L,Smylie D E.The d isplacem ent fields of inclined fau lts[J].Bu lletin of the Seismological Society ofAm erica,1971,61(2):1433~1440.
[14]neic.usgs.gov/neis/travel_tim es/compute_tt.htm l.
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