震前电离层TEC异常探测方法研究
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摘要
考虑到震前电离层TEC异常扰动探测方法(主要包括平均数法、中位数法、四分位距法等)的局限性,提出采用电离层TEC拟合后的剩余残差来识别TEC异常,即先对电离层TEC时间序列进行拟合,然后利用滑动时窗法进行异常识别。基于中国地壳运动观测网络GNSS观测资料解算的电离层TEC数据,采用上述方法对汶川8.0级大地震进行分析,结果显示该方法能够合理有效地探测到震前电离层TEC的异常扰动。
Considering the limitations of available methods including the method on median and the Inter Quartile Range(IQR),etc.for detecting the abnormal TEC disturbance of ionosphere before earthquake,the paper put forword an improved method to distinguish the TEC anomaly by use of residual error after fitting the ionospheric TEC,i.e.At first,fitted the time sequence of ionospheric TEC and then distinguished the anomaly with sliding window method.On the basis of the GNSS observation data from the reference stations of Crustal Movement Observational Network of China,the continuous 31-day TEC values over China were computed and the data of Wenchuan M s8.0 earthquake in Sichuan province on May 12th 2008 were analyzed,the results shows that the ionospheric TEC anomaly obtained with the method is reasonable and effective.
Considering the limitations of available methods including the method on median and the Inter Quartile Range(IQR),etc.for detecting the abnormal TEC disturbance of ionosphere before earthquake,the paper put forword an improved method to distinguish the TEC anomaly by use of residual error after fitting the ionospheric TEC,i.e.At first,fitted the time sequence of ionospheric TEC and then distinguished the anomaly with sliding window method.On the basis of the GNSS observation data from the reference stations of Crustal Movement Observational Network of China,the continuous 31-day TEC values over China were computed and the data of Wenchuan M s8.0 earthquake in Sichuan province on May 12th 2008 were analyzed,the results shows that the ionospheric TEC anomaly obtained with the method is reasonable and effective.
引文
1杜品仁,蒋和荣,郭兼善.电离层异常能否作为地震前兆的研究[J].地震,1998,18(2):119-126.
2祝芙英,等.汶川Ms8.0地震前电离层TEC异常分析[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2008,28(6):16-21.
3 Liu J Y,et al.Pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies regis-tered by continuous GPS TEC measurements[J].AnnalesGeophysicae,2004,22:1 585-1 593.
4丁鉴海,索玉成,余素荣.地磁场与电离层异常现象及其与地震的关系[J].空间科学学报,2005,25(6):536-542.
5张强.地基GPS监测电离层TEC及其与地震活动关系的研究[D].中国地震局地震研究所,2004.
6卓裕荣.电离层地震前兆之研究[D].国立中央大学太空科学研究所,2002.
7吴云,等,利用地基GPS探测震前电离层TEC异常[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2005,25(2):36-40.
8杨剑,吴云,周义炎.利用GPS无线电掩星数据研究震前电离层异常[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2008,28(1):16-22.
9赵必强,等,震前电离层扰动研究进展及汶川地震前电离层变化[J].科技导报,2008,26(11):30-33.
10 Leonard R S and Barnes R A.Observation of ionosphericdisturbances following the Alaska earthquake[J].Journal ofGeophysical Research,1965,70(5):1 250-1 253.
11 Calais E M.GPS detection of ionospheric TEC perturba-tions following the January 17,1994,Northirdge Earth-quake[J].Geophys.Res.Lett,1995,22:1 045-1 048.
12 Zaslavski Y,Parrot M and Blance E.Analysis of VTECmeasurements above active seismic regions[J].Phys.EarthPlanet.Int,1998,105:219-228.
13 Pulinets S A.Strong earthquakes prediction possibility withthe help of topside sounding from satellites[J].Advances inSpace Research,1998,21(3):455-458.
14 Liu J Y,et al.Seismo-ionospheric signature prior toM≥6.0Taiwan earthquakes[J].Geophysic Research Letters,2000,27(19):3 113-3 116.
15 Silina A S,et al.Seismo-ionospheric phenomena beforestrong earthquakes[J].Natural Hazards and Earth SystemScience,2001,1:113-118.
16 Chuo Y J,et al.The anomalies in the foEs prior toM≥6.0 Taiwan earthquakes[A].Seismo Electromagnetic:Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere coupling[C].Tokyo:Terra Scientific Publishing Company,2002,309-312.
17 Pulinets S A.Ionospheric precursors of earthquakes;recentadvances in theory and practical applications[J].TAO,2004,15(3):413-415.
18 Pulinets S A,et al.Main phenomenological features of ion-ospheric precursors of strong earthquakes[J].Journal ofAtmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics,2003,65:1 337-1 347.
19 Sorokina V M,Chmyrevb V M and Yaschenko A K.Theo-retical model of DC electric field formation in the iono-sphere stimulated by seismic activity[J].Journal of Atmos-pheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics,2005,67:1 259-1 268.
20 Wilson B D,et al.Subdaily northern hemisphere iono-spheric maps using an extensive network of GPS receivers[J].Radio Science,1995,30:639-648.
21 Yuan Y B,et al.Preliminary results and analyses of usingIGS GPS data to determine global ionospheric TEC[J].Progress in Natural Science,2003,13(8):446-449.
22 Hu Xiaogong,Huang Cheng and Liao Xinhao.The statisti-cal tests of post-fit residuals and the choice of solve-forparameters[J].ACTA astronomica sinica,1999,40(4):343-349.
23 Pulinets S A.Seismic activity as a source of the ionosphericvariability[J].Adv.Space Research,1998,22(6):903-906.
24 http://www.spaceweather.gov.cn/item/product/yuebao.php.
2祝芙英,等.汶川Ms8.0地震前电离层TEC异常分析[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2008,28(6):16-21.
3 Liu J Y,et al.Pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies regis-tered by continuous GPS TEC measurements[J].AnnalesGeophysicae,2004,22:1 585-1 593.
4丁鉴海,索玉成,余素荣.地磁场与电离层异常现象及其与地震的关系[J].空间科学学报,2005,25(6):536-542.
5张强.地基GPS监测电离层TEC及其与地震活动关系的研究[D].中国地震局地震研究所,2004.
6卓裕荣.电离层地震前兆之研究[D].国立中央大学太空科学研究所,2002.
7吴云,等,利用地基GPS探测震前电离层TEC异常[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2005,25(2):36-40.
8杨剑,吴云,周义炎.利用GPS无线电掩星数据研究震前电离层异常[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2008,28(1):16-22.
9赵必强,等,震前电离层扰动研究进展及汶川地震前电离层变化[J].科技导报,2008,26(11):30-33.
10 Leonard R S and Barnes R A.Observation of ionosphericdisturbances following the Alaska earthquake[J].Journal ofGeophysical Research,1965,70(5):1 250-1 253.
11 Calais E M.GPS detection of ionospheric TEC perturba-tions following the January 17,1994,Northirdge Earth-quake[J].Geophys.Res.Lett,1995,22:1 045-1 048.
12 Zaslavski Y,Parrot M and Blance E.Analysis of VTECmeasurements above active seismic regions[J].Phys.EarthPlanet.Int,1998,105:219-228.
13 Pulinets S A.Strong earthquakes prediction possibility withthe help of topside sounding from satellites[J].Advances inSpace Research,1998,21(3):455-458.
14 Liu J Y,et al.Seismo-ionospheric signature prior toM≥6.0Taiwan earthquakes[J].Geophysic Research Letters,2000,27(19):3 113-3 116.
15 Silina A S,et al.Seismo-ionospheric phenomena beforestrong earthquakes[J].Natural Hazards and Earth SystemScience,2001,1:113-118.
16 Chuo Y J,et al.The anomalies in the foEs prior toM≥6.0 Taiwan earthquakes[A].Seismo Electromagnetic:Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere coupling[C].Tokyo:Terra Scientific Publishing Company,2002,309-312.
17 Pulinets S A.Ionospheric precursors of earthquakes;recentadvances in theory and practical applications[J].TAO,2004,15(3):413-415.
18 Pulinets S A,et al.Main phenomenological features of ion-ospheric precursors of strong earthquakes[J].Journal ofAtmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics,2003,65:1 337-1 347.
19 Sorokina V M,Chmyrevb V M and Yaschenko A K.Theo-retical model of DC electric field formation in the iono-sphere stimulated by seismic activity[J].Journal of Atmos-pheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics,2005,67:1 259-1 268.
20 Wilson B D,et al.Subdaily northern hemisphere iono-spheric maps using an extensive network of GPS receivers[J].Radio Science,1995,30:639-648.
21 Yuan Y B,et al.Preliminary results and analyses of usingIGS GPS data to determine global ionospheric TEC[J].Progress in Natural Science,2003,13(8):446-449.
22 Hu Xiaogong,Huang Cheng and Liao Xinhao.The statisti-cal tests of post-fit residuals and the choice of solve-forparameters[J].ACTA astronomica sinica,1999,40(4):343-349.
23 Pulinets S A.Seismic activity as a source of the ionosphericvariability[J].Adv.Space Research,1998,22(6):903-906.
24 http://www.spaceweather.gov.cn/item/product/yuebao.php.
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